Upgrading Success Rate "Is this really accurate or are these made up"?

tsaris68

Hello Dev. team!

I have recently have been upgrading several runes stones and enchantments. I already have a small fortune of AD invested in these so I am sure to use my preservation wards so that I don't loose 100K on a Mark of Potency or something similar.

I get ready after sinking in another couple hundred enchantments and finally I get a message that says 30% success rate. I am paraphrasing here but this is my perception of what should be happening. Now I am not sure how this algorithm is coded but if I have 30 preservation stones and I fail on the first 17 tries. I should expect no more than 4 more failures and then the rest should all be successes.

Surprise, this did not happen! I finally succeeded on the 28th try so that currently gives me a success rate of 0.9333%. Less than 1% is unacceptable and needs to be addressed or explained better so that your customers are not mislead to believe something that is far from the truth. Also, please don't feed us some garbage that this is based on 100 or 1000 attempts. It shouldn't matter.

This either has the scent of deception to make more money so we have to buy more Zen or the developers and QA teams are being lazy or don't know how to correctly code this, or were told to code this incorrectly. I think your community would like some real answers.

I would bet there are people who play the game could write the code for it that would actually work.

In short, please fix this. From your customer's view this would be taking advantage of us and that is not how you keep people coming back to purchase more Zen. Which helps pay your wages. So, if you think about it, your customer base are your financial backers and any investor would have your head for such sloppiness.

matiagronx

Yep, this is exactly what happened to me, used 20+ preservations to upgrade with a 25% chance, almost every time i use 10+ with a 30% chance etc... its clearly not working as it should. Chances are chances and i agree that it could happen once based on bad luck BUT NOT ALMOST ALL THE TIME..i cant believe u expect people to pay money on broken mechanics..then again i dont believe people are actually paying for lockboxes so its a "broken vs broken" situation.

pyrates313

It IS working as it should...

alot of percent-chances can be calculated with number:
the computer chooses a random number between 1 and 100. if it is between 1 and 30 (30% chance) then you are successfull, otherwhise you fail.

What you are saying is that the computer saves your fails, and that at excactly 30% you get it right. Thats nowhere the case! It can be that you fail 100 times with 95%...
so it is working its just your bad luck

zargorius666

People and statistics...some just don't match

You do realize that each time you roll you have the 30 % chance? They do not add, stack or whatever. Each time it's like the first time. You're just unlucky - wouldn't play lottery if I were you.

beckylunatic

I did 3 30% chance of success upgrades yesterday. Two worked on the very first try. I didn't keep a precise count of how many pres wards I used for the final one, but it was around 10. It does average out.

verilos

Try not to do this in PE. Go to some newbie zone, I find that the odds there work better.

I have had some instances where a 30% chance failed 15 times. The odds of that happening is 0.7^15=0.005 = 0.5%
So yea, i call cryptic odds lies, they are probably filling out some sort of ward wastage quota. Doesn't seem to apply outside of PE so I am happy.

vnrenshi

i have a suspicion that the odds generators for these types of upgrades work on a global scale, as verilos suggested, just like they do in many other MMOs. That being said, basically, your odds of success are being lumped together with the odds of success on every other upgrade attempt currently being performed in the zone you're in (this happens in Tera, and drives most players nuts), so in theory, moving to a less populated zone where less upgrades are being attempted at any given time "should" give you a more appropriate odds distribution.

fondlez

Also, a relatively unknown issue: do not under any circumstances attempt any Refinement upgrades, i.e. enchants, artifacts, weapons, or armor, with your bags in overflow.

This is because if there are any Refinement materials, including wards, present in Overflow, it will prevent upgrade success.

j4k06s

fondlez wrote: »

Also, a relatively unknown issue: do not under any circumstances attempt any Refinement upgrades, i.e. enchants, artifacts, weapons, or armor, with your bags in overflow.

This is because if there are any Refinement materials, including wards, present in Overflow, it will prevent upgrade success.

I had the very same problem with a reagent in overflow bag that blocked success:
http://nw-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?561881-Refining-artifacts-with-reagents-in-overflow-bag

vhem

My last 2 rank8 upgrades were 25% with pres ward, got one in 2 tries and the other on the first... I'm on the other spectrum of luck I guess.

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