Crafting RNG ridiculously broken

feanor70118

Based on approximately 40 attempts at crafting just now at a 60% supposed success probability with 5 successes, I think it's safe to say that the crafting RNG is not working as intended.

Please fix this or, better yet, just ELIMINATE THE RNG FROM CRAFTING. A 60% success probability could be changed to 60% completion. The task would always get done, it would just take 1.667 times as long (or require 1.667 times as much morale). The end result would be the same amount of crafting experience and production as would be if the RNG rates were actually accurate, but without needlessly frustrating and annoying players.

feanor70118

Just managed to fail on 7/10 tasks with a 90% chance of success. Let's hear it for the completely unnecessary and pointlessly frustrating inclusion of the broken RNG in absolutely everything!

mdarkangel

What's broken is the belief that 60% means you will succeed more than you will fail, or that 90% means you will succeed 9 out of 10 times. In theory, that's fine. In practice, all it means is you have n% chance to succeed this time, you have n% chance to succeed next time, and you have n% chance to succeed every time you try. It doesn't care what you did the last time or the last 10 times or the last 100 times. Each time you try is a new attempt.

mdarkangel

I should also add that your sample size in both cases is small.
The bare minimum you should have is 100 attempts with a better benchmark at 10,000 attempts.

feanor70118

Every time anyone starts a thread about the RNG someone feels compelled to miss the point entirely and state the obvious. That, at least, is a 100% certainty.

lordtweety

Agreed, RNG is not needed at all for crafting. If your artisan knows how to make it, he can make it. He might well be slow or fast or cheap or expensive. He might not have 400 proficiency and might need added time to craft something that a 400 proficiency craftsman wouldn't. He might not have the 400 focus, and might only be 'lucky' once in a blue moon at getting a perfect result (+1) but the RNG is not a needed factor in making the item.

mdarkangel

> @lordtweety#3604 said:
> He might not have the 400 focus, and might only be 'lucky' once in a blue moon at getting a perfect result (+1) but the RNG is not a needed factor in making the item.

So then how do you propose to determine if that blue moon has appeared?

lordtweety

Take the focus requirement less the existing focus, that can be able to used to work out how many he makes before he gets a +1, or conversely if he has high focus, how many he makes before he fails the +1 crit check. Replacing rng with predictability, ie reality.

And yes, I know it's a fantasy game. But when realism is introduced, as in the new crafting system, it should be consistent.