Is the Forgehammer of Gond possibly broken?

adinosii

I have been running crafting tasks non-stop, using my Mythic forgehammer and two purple tools. Now, I am supposed to have a 75% chance of the top-tier results, but it feels to me that it is not happening - what I am seeing is closer to 55%.

The next step is to copy my character over to Preview and try this a few hundred times to get a larger sample size, but I have a couple of questions:

• Is anyone else seeing this? If it's just me, then it maybe just an extended (if unlikely) streak of bad luck.
  
• It's been decades since I had a probability and statistics class - for those of you who still remember what you learned there - how many attempts should I make for the results to be sufficiently statistically significant?
  

Perhaps I should add that this feels like a recent change - did something change with the Forgehammer a few weeks back ?

bratleyray

Xbox here, ive noticed a change since mod12 released. It indeed seems funny. I will set two tasks, one with forge hammer, one without. They both fail time and time again. They both succeed about the same. Mythic tool seems to have same as epic tool. None of this would matter much if you actually received some of the regeants in return for failing. But nooo... you get some green vit or something obsolete. Forcing you to play even more rng... this mastercrafting is a joke.

plasticbat

My experience has nothing to do with mod 12b because it was before that.

I had multiple toon that did gem crates for SH mimic. The toon that has Mythic forgehammer seems to be easier (if not the same) to not to get the top tier reward than the other toon.
e.g. 2 toons have all Epic tools and one toon that has 3 Epic + Mythic forgehammer.
If there is one does not get the top tier reward, it is usually the one with Mythic forgehammer.