Something is wrong with Masterwork Tier II Jewelcraft

ontheleftcoast

For more than a week I've been trying to create gold nuggets. I have epic equipment and a Mythic Forgehammer of Gond. The game claims this gives me a 35% chance of success. However, after 74 80 attempts, I've managed to create only 9 gold nuggets for a whopping 11% success rate. This can't be right, I don't care how many times you invoke the name of RNGeezus. After 80+ attempts I'm WAY outside the bounds of "a bad streak" this is a bug. (Updated, I originally posted with 74 attempts, I'm up to 80 now and still haven't gotten another success)

I've had other problems with Masterwork tasks as well. The most noticable are in Alchemy where creating Oil of Vitriol sometimes fails and gives me the Tier 1 reward which should be impossible. I should either succeed or get the Tier II reward, there is a 0% chance of getting Tier I. This has happened to me in Weaponsmithing as well.

garret84

35% is a chance for every attempt to craft for sucsess. It's not the statistical percentage like for 35 successful attempts per 100.
Most people misunderstand this. Its like rolling d20 for success where number 1-13 is a failure and number 14-20 is a success. And you "roll" it every time you try.

ontheleftcoast

Umm, yeah, each attempt has a 35% chance of succeeding. But after a hundred attempt the expected number of successful craft attempts will be around 35. I got 12 in 92 tries (I ran out of ore on the 92nd try and got my twelfth success). On average I should have received 32, not 12, successful attempts over that many tries. Of course it is random and that means it will fall under a distribution curve. That curve should be roughly 2/3rds of the time I'd receive between 29 and 35. Actually getting 12 is down in the realm of less than 0.1% chance. And I'm not the only member of my guild having problems crafting these nuggets. They don't have the mythic forgehammer and are also seeing 10% success rates instead of 20%. Something is wrong with more than 99.9% certainity it being a bug in Cryptic's code.