The definition of 25%

VelvetStrike - Illyfue
VelvetStrike - Illyfue Posts: 1,126 Arc User
edited December 2014 in General Discussion
25% usually means 1 out of 4 or 1/4 or for every 100 combines 25 succeed.

I just combined over 400 gems lv1 without fusion agent (80*25%) 2 succeeded in total.

1265q3a.png

so yeah, i juSt leave those probability chances there.

MIGHT WANT TO FIX UR DAMN RNG.
Post edited by VelvetStrike - Illyfue on
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Comments

  • Isock - Eyrda
    Isock - Eyrda Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    NO
    25% each try, they don't add up
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  • VelvetStrike - Illyfue
    VelvetStrike - Illyfue Posts: 1,126 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    NO
    25% each try, they don't add up

    awww cmon basic maths

    the tool calculated the chance of 2 out of 80 trys succeeding at 25% succes rate. Any advanced calculator has this tool, learned it in 4th grade of high school >.<
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  • BalthazarF - Shylia
    BalthazarF - Shylia Posts: 646 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    so you got really unlucky, wich is still possible no? like i did 10 try and succed 8 times.

    but yeah i agree it seems strange :/
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  • serenity234876
    serenity234876 Posts: 726 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    25% usually means 1 out of 4 or 1/4 or for every 100 combines 25 succeed.

    I just combined over 400 gems lv1 without fusion agent (80*25%) 2 succeeded in total.

    1265q3a.png

    so yeah, i juSt leave those probability chances there.

    MIGHT WANT TO FIX UR DAMN RNG.

    why don't u fuse 4 gems without fa for 75% chance o.o
  • Darksiren - Storm Legion
    Darksiren - Storm Legion Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    Based on the binomial probability, if 28,000,000 (28 million) people tried, only 1 person would get as low as 2 successes. That's damn unlucky odds to be that 1/28,000,000th person (or more than likely, the RNG is screwed up as we all have noticed at one time or another).
  • BalthazarF - Shylia
    BalthazarF - Shylia Posts: 646 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    why don't u fuse 4 gems without fa for 75% chance o.o

    cause with 4 only you can not try without fa ;)
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  • Isock - Eyrda
    Isock - Eyrda Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    another example, 2% luck to drop something when you die even whit white name

    in 3 years so far, only 1 TIME i dropped something on white name

    im glad it hasn't been 2 times out of every 100
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  • VelvetStrike - Illyfue
    VelvetStrike - Illyfue Posts: 1,126 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    but ok on a serious note, what i noticed in this games RNG is u either have mad bad luck or a lucky streak, any1 knows what factors are involved in their RNG?

    lucky sign didnt have any difference for me, some other mmorpg's use the current time in their RNG process.
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  • alyus
    alyus Posts: 348 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    but ok on a serious note, what i noticed in this games RNG is u either have mad bad luck or a lucky streak, any1 knows what factors are involved in their RNG?

    lucky sign didnt have any difference for me, some other mmorpg's use the current time in their RNG process.

    Lucky Sign is only for prayers. (Usually better buffs) Does not affect anything else. (Tried fortifying under lucky sign and no change)
    On 8/20/14 at 9:07 AM we have been informed that we lost another member of the FW team to go off to another title. RIP GreyjoyKraken. All hope for FW is forever lost...
  • Isock - Eyrda
    Isock - Eyrda Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    im 40% sure the sign affects what kind of ID you get too
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  • alyus
    alyus Posts: 348 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    im 40% sure the sign affects what kind of ID you get too

    I would also have to deny that. Tried Re-IDing under non lucky signs and lucky signs and no difference. (Of course I kept getting Acc Ids instead of crit dmg)
    On 8/20/14 at 9:07 AM we have been informed that we lost another member of the FW team to go off to another title. RIP GreyjoyKraken. All hope for FW is forever lost...
  • Vyden - Illyfue
    Vyden - Illyfue Posts: 199 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    im 40% sure the sign affects what kind of ID you get too

    When you pray under your sign you get more exp for the first 4 prays,a higher chance to get items from pray,buffs after the first 4 prays,everything else is just a myth.
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  • Isock - Eyrda
    Isock - Eyrda Posts: 589 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    When you pray under your sign you get more exp for the first 4 prays,a higher chance to get items from pray,buffs after the first 4 prays,everything else is just a myth.

    all i know is that all the 3 double evasion IDs i have got where on a blue sign
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  • BalthazarF - Shylia
    BalthazarF - Shylia Posts: 646 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    i m not supersticous...it gives bad luck :p
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  • Vyden - Illyfue
    Vyden - Illyfue Posts: 199 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    all i know is that all the 3 double evasion IDs i have got where on a blue sign

    I guess you saved your re-id scrolls to use under your lucky sign,so if you try 90 times under your lucky sign and only 10 times when it's not your lucky sign,it's normal to get better ids.
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  • elgrotto
    elgrotto Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    The level of understanding of randomness in this discussion is below the levels of statistical likelihoods.

    Some random facts to consider:

    1. It's highly unlikely that developers of FW, who can put together 3D worlds with hundreds of players simultaneously interacting with each other and the environment, can **** up using two of the most simple C library functions. srand() which is called at program start to seed the random generator, and rand() to generate a random number. Remember most the ****-ups in FW are due to the incompetence of PWE who run it, not the developers / game itself.

    2. It's highly unlikely that the developers of FW would choose to invent their own random number generators, when there are perfectly adequate library functions to generate random numbers. However, if for some reason they didn't want to use the library functions, there are at least two other methods that they could use (and probably would, again before writing their own from scratch). They could use the operating system's built-in random number generator - /dev/urandom on Linux - or use a public domain Mersenne Twister algorithm. Both of which produce random numbers of adequate quality for an MMO game.

    3. The statement that other MMOs use time as a factor in their random number generation is misleading. Many programmers choose to seed the random number generator with the time of the call to srand(), ie, by calling srand(time(0)); . This is useful because programs then will generate a different sequence of numbers each time they're executed. HOWEVER, the time that a roll (call to rand()) is made has NO EFFECT whatsoever on the result. It's a fixed sequence for each seed value. Again, this is perfectly adequate for an MMO game because a) you have no sight on the actual numbers being generated, b) you have no sight on how many random numbers are generated by other people, and c) cryptographic levels of security are not required. (As an aside, I doubt anybody would even notice if FW failed to call the srand() function and left the RNG uninitialised. There's sufficient entropy in the user input that it would effectively mask the fact that the raw random data didn't change for each time the server was started).

    4. Your sample sizes are too low. In every case I've seen in this thread, too low. In fact, with a 25% probability of success, the number of successes with N rolls only tends to N/4 as N tends to infinity. (That "tends to" is a maths term with a very specific meaning).

    5. 25% is 25% each roll. It does not matter how many times you've previously rolled, the odds of the next roll succeeding are STILL only 25%.

    6. If you have already done, say, 3 rolls, and have had 3 failures, then the laws of probability say that you will most-likely now NEVER get your N/4 successes for N total rolls, including the 3 fails, because these 3 fails factor in as previous known values; all future values are still unknown with a probability of 25%.

    This doesn't mean that FW isn't suspect in its use of random probabilities though. Just more likely something like this is an error in the description, rather than the fault of the generator. That or you simply were an unlucky assassin on this occasion!
  • VelvetStrike - Illyfue
    VelvetStrike - Illyfue Posts: 1,126 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    I see you got ur programming knowledge but i did a statistical analysis, and that showed the chance of 2 out of 80 succeeding in a random order had the chance i showed earlier. It is a legit chance calculation which you might want to research, i can give you the official formula's name if you are interested.

    I'm sure they got a perfectly fine RNG, i never claimed they don't. But as you hopefully know there is no true random, randomness is a myth, the chance of something succeeding and failing is a mere calculation of parameters that the developers chose.

    What i do know is about rune combining, i combined tons of runes, i got no N for you there but i promise you it is a ltos of wasted D's:

    Either i had epic bad 6 point lv5 runes with useless talents all the time in a row or i had decent runes with rare talents all in a row. it was always all bad or all decent/good in a streak.

    Like my gem example it was 1 big streak of bad luck.

    Rune ocmbining is obviously a completely different subject without a % chance of succeeding but it was just an example of luck and bad luck. But what bothers me is that it's never actually been 25% chance, i combine all my **** gems without fusion, and i get about 10% success rate on average. (which would still mean the 2 out of 80 example was epic bad luck)
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  • viiix
    viiix Posts: 1,270 Arc User
    edited December 2014
    I saved up about 800 azures, 600 solars, and 500 mists or so to combine without FAs. My end results was just over 25%, so I'd say you just got unlucky.