Is the Q exchanged being fiddled with :<

nepht · July 2014

I seen a lot of people say stuff like this of late

arimikami wrote: »

You're not imagining things. Someone's been trying pretty hard to jack up the exchange rate. I'm not complaining about it since it's not too much trouble to just stock pile Q until the rate drops down again but, it definitely happens.

Now I have noticed the Q exchange prices have been pretty dumb of late but can people actualy screw with it and if so what are Cryptic going to do to stop this :I

Big shout out to arimikami for informing us all of course ^__^

selphea · July 2014

It's encountering what investors call "resistance".

After a long period of >350Q exchange rates, Q has finally fallen close to 300, and that's the best rate it will get for a while, especially because a new lockbox is on the horizon. So the people who farmed and were holding on to their Q waiting for a good rate are starting to dump. The people with Z who bought Q at 400+ rates are dumping their Q too.

Isn't it amazing how playing an MMORPG can teach investment concepts? :biggrin:

chaelk · July 2014

So along with Selphea's point on investment tactics

just as people selling Q want the most for their Q,
so do the people selling zen. .

They know its a sellers market, so all they have to do is NOT put zen on the market.

People will continue grinding Q to get their 'free' zen,thinking that there is a limitless supply available.

There's a lockbox on the PTS with new costumes, so people will need zen for keys. Either to open boxes or to trade with.

NW seems to have run into the problem, that since their AH runs on AD, as well as the zen exchange. People are buying items and selling those on the AH, rather than getting AD on the exchange with it's 500Q exchange rate limit.
Again, it's a sellers market.

quasimojo1 · July 2014

I'm long the August Q futures contract @ 300 and am hedging with an iron condor Zen options strategy.

alexandrafreya · July 2014

Darnit Nepht, Your ruining my master plan! :P

Ahem...sorry bad joke there...

Honestly I haven't noticed much....but to be fair lately I've been getting less and less zen....Vehicles are not really my thing and that alone drops the amount of zen I do need...I am very lazy though I tend to buy Zen novv and then for Vigil gear and such.

Usually I just go vvith the best price already there for ether vvay...I've got a bad business sense and I am really quite ok vvith that, trading isn't really my thing ether :P

I'v never kept track of rates myself...ermm...but I think it used to be around the lovver 200s at one point?....maybe I don't remember right...but that vvas like a year ago novv...it seems odd to me that prices vvould change much in CO....Q as gotten alittle more difficult to farm these days I vvould have thought that vvould make prices drop...but...guess not.

Anyvvay I do hope they do drop again

Alexandra.

chaelk · July 2014

Just remember that the Exchange is PLAYER controlled, the only buyers and sellers are players.

If some people have shown that they are using their brains to invest and work the exchange to their benefit, good on them.

The ones complaining the price is too high,
the exchange gives you a CHANCE at trading for free zen. It is not a guarantee nor does it guarantee a cheap price.
Every lockbox and popular sale is going to spike it up.

me, I only sell little bits left over from buying stuff.

The only group which would benefit from the rate staying high is cryptic/pwe, due to possibly getting more zen sales . Which leads to a problem with getting them to investigate.

Q rate is unlikely to drop much unless all the exploit farmed Q is removed from the economy(as in spent at the Q store), until it does there is still an oversupply of Q.

nepht · July 2014

chaelk wrote: »

The only group which would benefit from the rate staying high is cryptic/pwe, due to possibly getting more zen sales . Which leads to a problem with getting them to investigate.

Right that makes me even more paranoid O_o

h8FFC3ED1

spinnytop · July 2014

Why would Cryptic investigate? They already set a maximum price that they believe is appropriate, meaning that it's impossible for there ever to be anything for them to investigate. Even if the price of Zen maxes out and stays there permanently, it's still at a price that Cryptic has deemed acceptable.

They would only need to investigate if someone found a way to convert Q to Zen outside of the set price ranges. If players think there's something wrong with the price, then what they would need to do is petition Cryptic to narrow the price range. If you ask them to investigate, they'll do so and then say "Nothing unusual going on, just people using the system as intended."

If you feel that you need to pay too many play hours to get your Zen off the exchange, feel free to buy it using work hours instead u3u

arimikami · July 2014

Yes, there's someone going out of their way to inflate the exchange rate beyond the simple amount caused by supply and demand. It's been going on since right after they announced the nerf to some quests that rewarded Q.

If you watch the exchange enough, you'll see a pattern that keeps repeating. It's not just the normal fluctuations you see but, a pattern in the offers to buy zen that's so specific that it's impossible to deny that it's happening once you see it a couple times.

Every MMO has players where the whole point of the game to them is to see how much of the wealth they can amass. Now CO has someone doing it with the exchange that's better at it than others that have tried.

Cryptic can't really do anything about it since no rules are being broken. Watch the exchange and learn the pattern so you can take advantage of it.

jasinblaze · July 2014

there is more demand for zen than questionite. that is why the price is high. we have a smaller player-base, keep in mind all zen is either bought besides the stipend. the q store doesn't have that much useful things in it and players can still farm the first 2 bosses repeatable for 5 q boxes each in serpents lantern. so there is a huge reservoir of q while a low amount of zen.
more things worth getting in the q store that the population doesnt have is whats needed.

things that could be put in the q store to make q exchange rates better

legions gear
weapon skins
old grabbags or their rewards
action figures no longer available DEVS&GMs sapphire,grond, etc
r7 mods
ATs
previously unavailable costumes witchcraft brazaar , guardian helmet , etc
happiness(not guarenteed )

arimikami · July 2014

chaelk wrote: »

The only group which would benefit from the rate staying high is cryptic/pwe, due to possibly getting more zen sales . Which leads to a problem with getting them to investigate.

That's not actually accurate. The only people that are guaranteed to benefit from a high exchange rate are players with zen that want questionite and don't want to farm for it. Regardless of whether the exchange rate is high or low, it has both pros and cons to it from the perspective of Cryptic trying to make money.

arimikami · July 2014

jasinblaze wrote: »

things that could be put in the q store to make q exchange rates better

I've been thinking they should put the old lockboxes up for sale. With the rates that those thing drop at, it makes no sense to have the current lockbox for sale for questionite since everyone gets more of them than they're going to unlock but, discontinued ones have things that players that weren't around for will want, like 4 slot gear, vehicles, and costume pieces. Putting those in the lockbox vendor would help syphon off excess questionite while possibly increasing the sales of keys at the same time which does seem to be one of their biggest money makers at the moment.

chaelk · July 2014

arimikami wrote: »

That's not actually accurate. The only people that are guaranteed to benefit from a high exchange rate are players with zen that want questionite and don't want to farm for it. Regardless of whether the exchange rate is high or low, it has both pros and cons to it from the perspective of Cryptic trying to make money.

I get zen regularly, I buy it.(ah the joys of no social life.)
I don't spend it on the exchange because quite frankly the Q store is rubbish.
I have the costume sets.
The mod prices were redundant at the start.
Vehicles/vehicle mods- not interested,
becomes- those are ones dorpped form boxes and which they tried to sell in the Z store.

The levelling gear is ok for those who like to stack ONLY their SS's. I don't.
If the Mercenary gear was available at any level , I 'd get that. assuming it was 11k like the other levelling gear.

Just remember, the q farming exploits may have been shut down, (at least those ones) but that still means that all the people who were using those exploits have a large supply of Q with which to buy and sell zen. Until all the excess Q is out of the economy(spent ingame), you have rampant inflation

and people are looking for new ones to farm, like Lava cave

agentnx5 · July 2014

nepht wrote: »

Now I have noticed the Q exchange prices have been pretty dumb of late but can people actually screw with it and if so what are Cryptic going to do to stop this :I

Trying to police a market does NOT work. Trust me on this. That's a stupid solution, and the tone of your post as I'm hearing it seems to indicates that's the direction you want to take this. Don't go there. Please. For the love of kittens. It's lose-lose.

So how DO you correct the market balance so the exchange rates are more stable and shifted more to the Questionite side (lower Q to 1 Zen ratio)?

Simple.

More buyers & sellers involved in the exchange (makes it harder to manipulate do to the size fo the economy). This requires both advertising to new players and retainment of existing players. And you know what? BOTH Cryptic and the community have influence in this. Yes, you can affect this yourself.
Get Cryptic to put more things of genuine value to players to put on the questionite side of things. This will cause the equilibrium to shift. The best things are those that you repeatedly buy, such as consumables, devices, and mods.
Buy more Zen yourself. Lower the demand for exchange Zen by supplying yourself.

Jasinblaze had some good suggestions of things for the Auction House:

jasinblaze wrote: »

things that could be put in the q store to make q exchange rates better
legions gear

weapon skins

old grabbags or their rewards

action figures no longer available DEVS&GMs sapphire,grond, etc

r7 mods

ATs

previously unavailable costumes witchcraft brazaar , guardian helmet , etc

happiness(not guarenteed )

selphea wrote: »

It's encountering what investors call "resistance".

After a long period of >350Q exchange rates, Q has finally fallen close to 300, and that's the best rate it will get for a while, especially because a new lockbox is on the horizon. So the people who farmed and were holding on to their Q waiting for a good rate are starting to dump. The people with Z who bought Q at 400+ rates are dumping their Q too.

Isn't it amazing how playing an MMORPG can teach investment concepts? :biggrin:

That's fascinating, and sort of true. MMORPG's are micro-economies of a sort, but I really wish CO's economy was more sizable and filled with more new players... It would help a LOT.

nepht · July 2014

agentnx5 wrote: »

Get Cryptic to put more things of genuine value to players to put on the questionite side of things. This will cause the equilibrium to shift. The best things are those that you repeatedly buy, such as consumables, devices, and mods.

Well met Agent, you know what I wish there was more things of genuine value in the questionite store I can honestly say the stuff in the Q store is just so dull.

chaelk · July 2014

Since Nepht won't part with her Pugs.(just kidding)
What about some pets too?
we can swipe some from NW.

I like the little white chickens.
The cats sit funny but are ok.
Spiders- I know we have at least 1 person in game with serious arachnophobia, so no.

I'd pay for a pug(actually any puppy except chinese crested or mexican hairless) either black, brindle, the smudge faced ones. well they are cute. drool aura extra.

It doesn't have to have super powers, just a few commands. come, sit, fetch, play

jerax1011 · July 2014

chaelk wrote: »

I like the little white chickens.

That's as far as I got in your statement. I think it would be hilarious to have attack chickens :P

nepht · July 2014

jerax1011 wrote: »

That's as far as I got in your statement. I think it would be hilarious to have attack chickens :P

This needs to happen fast /o/

spinnytop · July 2014

Only if the chickens can attack people and I can summon 20 of them at once u3u

chaelk · July 2014

jerax1011 wrote: »

That's as far as I got in your statement. I think it would be hilarious to have attack chickens :P

ooh yes Bantams, perfect. Those are attack chickens, at least going on the <expletive deleted> ones I've come in contact with.

lafury001200 · July 2014

Really nothing we can do (and yes Nephty it is being manipulated).

Prices early on were what....235-270 for 1 zen. Sometimes lower. Now it can shoot over 400 if there's a decent sale going.

So we are left with this:

Those with the most rl cash will rule the market. Try to be a good guy and reestablish equilbrium and watch your good will get chewed up and spit out. It's been bought low and will sell high because the person who just bought up your entire offer will wait for a sale and then blammo capitalize bigtime.

**edit I sound anti sale here. Been drinking. Don't care anymore.

edit 2-also agent x5 spelled it out better, I was ranting. Leaving it here so I can wake up log in and say to myself my god what did I do?!

roughbearmattach · July 2014

I have real life cash. Spending $10 a week to buy Zen is as much a deal to me as spending money on lunch out with friends or 2 drinks at a bar.

When I want Q, I spend 10 bucks, then cash in Z for Q when exchange price is high, encouraging it to go even further.

Not everyone wants to trade Q for Z. Plenty of us go the other way.

chaelk · July 2014

prices early on was 100 for quite a while, people complained when it went to 150, then it got stuck at 150 for a while, then 190, then 250, then 300

decorumfriends · July 2014

It's like half you people never saw a public market in action before. It will do what it will do. It's not being "manipulated", it's simply being used.

quasimojo1 · July 2014

"But..the exchange rate isn't what I personally prefer it to be at this point in time, so it must be broken/manipulated!"

Well, to be honest, I really doubt the Q market is completely player-driven. I think PWE probably participates in the market somewhat, and that's where the major support/resistance levels are coming from. This is just speculation on my part though. It just seems like the volume of bids/offers (particularly when the Q exchange was first introduced) are unrealistic to just be from players, and there is a surprising lack of volatility compared to real-world markets that have much, much, much more participation.

At any rate, it is what it is. My advice: buy low/sell high.

flyingfinn · July 2014

i'll go dump my 2Mill Qs for 150Z and see what happens.

meedacthunist · July 2014

Nothing can be really done, as it's all player-driven.
Nothing short of putting more valuable things in Q-store can help.
Manipulating Q-exchange by devs by policing it is not the best idea, it will only create more problems.

zedbrightlander1 · July 2014

Look, there is a simple solution if you believe the prices are being manipulated...

Start a Daily Q to Z Exchange Report thread.

Every day, before you start playing, check the Zen for Questionite rate and post it. Do it every single day for a year and you will find a pattern. Or get a bunch of players to post each day with you. The more data gathered, the clearer the results will be.

Without actual data, everything anyone says they remember a recent rate to be, is just speculation.
{ shrugs } I'll take facts over vague memories and guesses, any day.

Outside of that, pick a number that you feel is a fair exchange for your gathering efforts, and only offer your Q for that value. Stick it up in the Exchange at that value and leave it there.

highreality · July 2014

There is no pattern.. you will just see that it goes up sometimes, down sometimes, and is stable sometimes. Economy, stuff. It d

jasinblaze · July 2014

the problem with establishing a pattern is that as soon as we know the pattern it will change.
more good stuff in the q store is the best thing that could change. the reason q was so strong before is because everything in the store was nice and new
the only things long time players buy in the q store are

vigilante gear
the 66000 q sets for new toons

everything else most of us already have

arimikami · July 2014

highreality wrote: »

There is no pattern.. you will just see that it goes up sometimes, down sometimes, and is stable sometimes. Economy, stuff. It d

iamrune · July 2014

arimikami wrote: »

Actually, there has been one. As I said, it's very specific and, I'm not talking about patterns in fluctuations of the exchange rate but, patterns in specific offers to buy zen.

So, spell it out, then.

I honestly would like to know about this evidence, so I can form my own opinion. Refute it or support it.

But I can't really do that if you don't tell us exactly what this pattern is and how we can recognize it ourselves.

sistersilicon · July 2014

12:45. Restate my assumptions:

1: Mathematics is the language of nature.
2: Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
3: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge.

Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

Evidence: The cycling of lockbox epidemics; the wax and wane of PvP populations; Rampage cycles; the rise and fall of the development staff.

So, what about the Questionite market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Tens of hands at work, dozens of minds. A barely adequate network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism.

My hypothesis: Within the Questionite market, there is a pattern as well. Right in front of me. Hiding behind the numbers. Always has been.

12:50: Press Z.

jonsills · July 2014

I've seen numbers purporting to trace a pattern between stock-market prices and the eleven-year sunspot cycle. The trick here is that our species evolved to look for patterns - it was the best way to spot predators hiding in the tall grass. So if you go looking for patterns anywhere, you're liable to find them, because it's what we're good at.

This does not require that the patterns actually exist, or be of any significance whatsoever...

themightyzenith · July 2014

jonsills wrote: »

I've seen numbers purporting to trace a pattern between stock-market prices and the eleven-year sunspot cycle. The trick here is that our species evolved to look for patterns - it was the best way to spot predators hiding in the tall grass. So if you go looking for patterns anywhere, you're liable to find them, because it's what we're good at.

This does not require that the patterns actually exist, or be of any significance whatsoever...

There is a pattern somewhere that determines that Jon's post wins the internet.

sterga · July 2014

zedbrightlander1 wrote: »

Every day, before you start playing, check the Zen for Questionite rate and post it. Do it every single day for a year and you will find a pattern. Or get a bunch of players to post each day with you. The more data gathered, the clearer the results will be.

People who play the q market game aren't likely to share their information.

I have seen prices tank as much as 40pts in the space of a few minutes only to go right back to where they were in less than an hour. That's weird. Prices normally don't change anywhere near that much unless there's a sale or special event going on.

jimhsua · July 2014

sterga wrote: »

People who play the q market game aren't likely to share their information.

I have seen prices tank as much as 40pts in the space of a few minutes only to go right back to where they were in less than an hour. That's weird. Prices normally don't change anywhere near that much unless there's a sale or special event going on.

If enough people believe a pattern exists, then it, ex vi termini, does. Self-fulfulling prophecy.

And sure, I play the questionite markets (though I'm way small-time, and have nothing to do w/ the recent fluctuations). I did dump a few K of zen or so at the 400s, though most all of that has been used/bought back. And in Eve online. And in real life.

As for the volatility - volatility is inversely proportional to liquidity. The Q markets are not exactly liquid (a "large" buy or sell wall for zen might be 5000, which is nothing to a serious Q trader (again, not me)).

PS While we're on

I'm long the August Q futures contract @ 300 and am hedging with an iron condor Zen options strategy.

I anticipate the vega decay after the recent Q volatility might decrease the value of that contract.

Oh yea, I'm also the guy that tried to implement the Black-Scholes equation into Skyrim. Yea, really.

jonsills · July 2014

quasimojo1 wrote: »

I'm long the August Q futures contract @ 300 and am hedging with an iron condor Zen options strategy.

I don't think I've seen the Iron Condor around. Is he new?

jimhsua · July 2014

jonsills wrote: »

I don't think I've seen the Iron Condor around. Is he new?

He's kind of like Kenina and Frosticus (at least the short version of him); happy at the extremes, sad in the middle when nothing's going on.

quasimojo1 · July 2014

jimhsua wrote: »

He's kind of like Kenina and Frosticus (at least the short version of him); happy at the extremes, sad in the middle when nothing's going on.

Cool, a fellow RL markets geek. I'm happy someone returned the secret handshake, so to speak.

kaiserin · July 2014

Cleaned up some posts, thread was getting a tad too off topic.

chalupaoffury · July 2014

sistersilicon wrote: »

12:45. Restate my assumptions:

1: Mathematics is the language of nature.
2: Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
3: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge.

Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

Evidence: The cycling of lockbox epidemics; the wax and wane of PvP populations; Rampage cycles; the rise and fall of the development staff.

So, what about the Questionite market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Tens of hands at work, dozens of minds. A barely adequate network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism.

My hypothesis: Within the Questionite market, there is a pattern as well. Right in front of me. Hiding behind the numbers. Always has been.

12:50: Press Z.

So what you're saying is...

chaelk · July 2014

not even that.

I don't like gear which is only your SS's, so i don't get Vigilante gear.Even the heirloom gear, I tend to only use only off/def.

The 11k gear I only sometimes get the off/def parts, depending on my stats.

I'd like the mercenary gear changed to match them because as Level 40 gear, it's rubbish.

so that the people who DON'T just pile on their 3 SS's can use them.

(change the name to something else to differentiate between the mercenary gear from lockboxes.)

You will have to mod them but you will get the secondary abilities which the other gear doesn't.eg. crit chance/severity/cd/cost discount/(can't remember the defense ones
.
the others will have bonus damage/damage resistance, you have the normal bonuses.

depending on what you want to use, which gear you get.

jimhsua · July 2014

So since I was around for the King Sehken lockbox launch (the first time actually I was around for a day 1 lockbox launch), I decided to keep track of the markets.

Immediate things:
- "WTB keys" spam in chat - checked AH and keys were flying off at the 110-130G levels. It eventually reached resistance at around 150G, a 36% move in a day. Advice to key sellers: don't take 100G as a fair price when selling keys on day 1.
- King Sehken costume pieces offered for sale ... exponential decay
- Q prices steadily rose (as in Q became less valuable) - from 300 to 400. More interestingly, the spreads were HUGE as both buy and sell orders dried up. Made 30% off my balance just by playing the spread. Big sellers began coming in at 400, and reversed the trend.
- Safeguard catalysts ticked up slightly the following day (from 17 to 20G) on the Q/zen move.

All I can say is that the market was reasonably efficient, if a bit slow (several arb opportunities out there). I've also done small time arbing for EVE, so it's a matter of "you know it when you see it."

PS I did see some crazy people selling lockboxes for 50G. Word of advice: if you list it at a more reasonable price as I did, it will actually sell (because people are lazy).

jimhsua · July 2014

agentnx5 wrote: »

Trying to police a market does NOT work. Trust me on this. That's a stupid solution, and the tone of your post as I'm hearing it seems to indicates that's the direction you want to take this. Don't go there. Please. For the love of kittens. It's lose-lose.

Artificial market sanctions are the quickest, easiest way to instantly create black markets. Literally an iron law of economics.

spinnytop · July 2014

jimhsua wrote: »

Artificial market sanctions are the quickest, easiest way to instantly create black markets. Literally an iron law of economics.

I want a black market for questionite. Sanctions plz.

chaelk · July 2014

this one from Neverwinter
http://www.arcgames.com/en/games/neverwinter/news/detail/6004453

bonuses for buying zen and transferring to NW.
Which from a conversation I overheard in chat, is having a slight problem with their exchange.

People have worked out they can get a better exchange rate per zen by buying stuff and selling it on the AH.

Aren't we lucky our Auction House, DOESN'T work on Q because with our limited (legal)methods of getting Q. Imagine the results.

as for the new bigger xp boosters, WHY?

joybuzzerx · July 2014

Wait a minute. Just curious, but wouldn't those who buy zen to sell for questionite prefer to keep the market going higher?

You're spending money to get that ZEN, makes sense they'd want more for their money and worried less about those who need to play the game more to get more zen.

kallethen · July 2014

The big problem here and in NW, I believe, is that the stores for Questionite and Astral Diamonds has grown stale. The Zen shops have seen plenty of new items on the other hand. This means people want Zen more than Questionite/Astral Diamonds. There's other factors in play (especially on NW with how AD is used for the auction house), but this is the main crux of the problem. We need new stuff to purchase from the Q and AD stores.

chaelk · July 2014

joybuzzerx wrote: »

Wait a minute. Just curious, but wouldn't those who buy zen to sell for questionite prefer to keep the market going higher?

You're spending money to get that ZEN, makes sense they'd want more for their money and worried less about those who need to play the game more to get more zen.

yes, same as all those who want free zen, want the exchange rate lower.

and the Q store is.. umm a waste of space here.

spinnytop · July 2014

joybuzzerx wrote: »

Wait a minute. Just curious, but wouldn't those who buy zen to sell for questionite prefer to keep the market going higher?

You're spending money to get that ZEN, makes sense they'd want more for their money and worried less about those who need to play the game more to get more zen.

^ this.

I get my Zen by farming questionite and trading it. I'm okay with it if the people who buy the Zen with real money get more Questionite for their money. I'm paying for it with play hours, they're paying for it with work hours.

ps - people who get their Zen from a monthly stipend; if they didn't get their sub for free, then they also paid for their Z with work hours.

Is the Q exchanged being fiddled with :<

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