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A taste of the odds

secksegaisecksegai Posts: 1,354 Arc User
edited October 2012 in Items and Crafting
I figured I'd do one more lockbox test after 37 boxes on live netted nothing worth mentioning.

On PTS I opened 210 boxes

The following percentages are approximations, rounded to the nearest tenth

54% R3 + boost

18% R4x25

15% R5x25

10% R6x5

2% Halloween become, 1 legion item, mods

1% (or less) Purple Lockbox (did not get one out of the 210)


With those percentages, keep in mind 1 key is valued at 100zen or $1 US dollar.

While not my first test of the odds, its been the only one I've bothered to number crunch. And from the previous experience, I'd say those percentages are pretty reflective of my lockbox experience on live, as well as previous testing on PTS.
Post edited by secksegai on

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    amarillonmcamarillonmc Posts: 189 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    Thanks for your time!

    From a mathematics perspective there should be larger sample.
    A sample large enough so all the possible outcomes comes out.

    Or you can simply prove that the item is not there in the beginning, which is big issue lol

    I take it that (being a sliver so never been to PTS) people could someday open like 500~1000 boxes as long as they got enough time?

    But either way the refusal to put the exact (or vague) probability table from the developers is not nice... Yugioh at least tells you which cards have this 1/5 chance to appear in a booster pack...

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    ...the ultimate Contrast Moe (or not).
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    titotito333999titotito333999 Posts: 196 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    amarillonmc wrote: »
    Thanks for your time!

    From a mathematics perspective there should be larger sample.
    A sample large enough so all the possible outcomes comes out.

    Or you can simply prove that the item is not there in the beginning, which is big issue lol

    I take it that (being a sliver so never been to PTS) people could someday open like 500~1000 boxes as long as they got enough time?

    But either way the refusal to put the exact (or vague) probability table from the developers is not nice... Yugioh at least tells you which cards have this 1/5 chance to appear in a booster pack...

    Allredy done by an awesome person here with 1000 Tako Boxes and 50 Legacy Device Boxes, just read the whole thread.
    _______________________________________________

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    This was awesome while it lasted
    _______________________________________________
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    magitek3magitek3 Posts: 150 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    I opened 1000 boxes on the test server about a week ago, and 2% is about what I got for the drop rate on the 4-slot/Become prize (19/1000, to be exact). Out of the 1000 boxes, I received two Doomlords.

    edit: lol beaten by Tito, but yes. FYI, you can "copy" characters from Live to Test, so to get lots of boxes to open, you repeatedly copy a character with keys/boxes on him to the Test server and throw their stuff into the shared stash.
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    amarillonmcamarillonmc Posts: 189 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    magitek3 wrote: »
    I opened 1000 boxes on the test server about a week ago, and 2% is about what I got for the drop rate on the 4-slot/Become prize (19/1000, to be exact). Out of the 1000 boxes, I received two Doomlords.

    Oh wow.
    Seeing the awards I'll totally forget the boxes for now and put 100 of them on AH for 1G lol

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    ...the ultimate Contrast Moe (or not).
  • Options
    secksegaisecksegai Posts: 1,354 Arc User
    edited October 2012
    amarillonmc wrote: »
    Thanks for your time!

    From a mathematics perspective there should be larger sample.
    A sample large enough so all the possible outcomes comes out.

    Or you can simply prove that the item is not there in the beginning, which is big issue lol

    I take it that (being a sliver so never been to PTS) people could someday open like 500~1000 boxes as long as they got enough time?

    But either way the refusal to put the exact (or vague) probability table from the developers is not nice... Yugioh at least tells you which cards have this 1/5 chance to appear in a booster pack...

    Since someone did 1k, I figured something within reason would be plausible. I wouldn't expect someone to spend 100 dollars on keys, and if 200 dollars worth netted nothing worthwhile, you get the idea.

    titotito333999 wrote: »
    Allredy done by an awesome person here with 1000 Tako Boxes and 50 Legacy Device Boxes, just read the whole thread.

    I recall, I didn't remember seeing total percentages on drops, but I glanced at it.
    magitek3 wrote: »
    I opened 1000 boxes on the test server about a week ago, and 2% is about what I got for the drop rate on the 4-slot/Become prize (19/1000, to be exact). Out of the 1000 boxes, I received two Doomlords.

    Since the legion gear is what people are really shooting for, they're the odds that count. Glad to see it held up to 1000.

    So .2% on purple lockboxes... that's pretty scary.

    edit: lol beaten by Tito, but yes. FYI, you can "copy" characters from Live to Test, so to get lots of boxes to open, you repeatedly copy a character with keys/boxes on him to the Test server and throw their stuff into the shared stash.

    No need for the FYI - you don't think I actually bought this many boxes ;)
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