Freeform grab bag drop rate

nepht · August 2012

Earlier today there was bit of a argument between my lot the argument went as such.

Some were saying the win rate for FF slot is 1% others said it was 10% I said you all talking BS because Cryptic hasn't said what the win rate is.

Then one cheeky so and so said some people are paying monies for these gamble bags Cryptic should post what the win rate actually is or its false marketing.

The git made a fair point and was promptly demoted .

So Cryptic what is the drop rate?

biffsmackwell · August 2012

I doubt they're going to post the numbers. Presumably that's why they shelved the PTS C Store, because people were buying hundreds of bags and counting up what they got to derive percentages.

Also, if they did post the numbers, then people could easily compare if it's worth it to try the bags or just buy the slot outright.

That all said, I got one out 12 bags opened.

flyingfinn · August 2012

It's calculated by the sum of bags opened during the 1st hour of the hour, then the 3/4 of that is donated to the dropbears of Australia, 1/4 is then run thru a woodchipper mixed herbs of different countries, shaken not stirred, hung, drown and quatered, shipped to Antartica and frozen along the polarbear urine, the sliced and poked holes with IBM Port-A-Punch and stored United States National Archives Records Service facility. By now the 3/4 has been prcessed by the dropbears and can be counted and added to number 42 so the correct % of drop rate can be achieved.

sockmunkey · August 2012

I honestly think folks are better off not knowing.

Unless you get it in less then 10 bags. Someone is going to rage at getting ripped off.

Say its 50 to 1 and they announce it as such. You know some lunk brained moron is going to vent with unholy rage when on his 50th the RNG has still not blessed him. "I opened 50, the system cheated me. I'm entitled to it!"

And if the odds are worse then 50 to 1. Cyptic gets it twice. One level of hate, for poor odds, on an object clearly marketed as a random chance. And once again form the poor sods unlucky enough to open 50 without a prize yet.

Even if the odds are in some way better then 50 to 1. You know there will be a percentage of folks who will still loose out.

Putting out the odds will do nothing to change stupid. And these are absolutely made to be stupid bait.

mainscrizz · August 2012

last time i went through 70+ bags and did not receive a single slot.
so I don't want to hear it. :mad:

You can bet your shiny FACE that i'm not getting any thing time. lol

nepht · August 2012

sockmunkey wrote: »

....
Putting out the odds will do nothing to change stupid. And these are absolutely made to be stupid bait.

That is pure genius you know that. Stupid Bait 100% awesomejuice

somebob · August 2012

biffsmackwell wrote: »

I doubt they're going to post the numbers. Presumably that's why they shelved the PTS C Store, because people were buying hundreds of bags and counting up what they got to derive percentages.

No, it's EXACTLY why they shut PTS' C-Store down. Cryptic just refuses to admit it, and apparently doesn't have a way to have two different C-Stores (one for Live with everything, one for PTS that has no Grab Bags) as otherwise they would've brought PTS' C-Store up months ago.

There's also absolutely no chance of Cryptic ever publishing the numbers. It's like listing the chances of winning the jackpot of any lotto/powerball/slot machine/whatever.

roughbearmattach · August 2012

somebob wrote: »

There's also absolutely no chance of Cryptic ever publishing the numbers. It's like listing the chances of winning the jackpot of any lotto/powerball/slot machine/whatever.

. . . except that the chances of winning lotteries/scratch tickets are published (and can be calculated with high school level math).

I got two FF slots in about 50 bags.

If a big enough survey were done, one could construct a rough graph and then derive some even rougher odds.

rap9 · August 2012

somebob wrote: »

There's also absolutely no chance of Cryptic ever publishing the numbers. It's like listing the chances of winning the jackpot of any lotto/powerball/slot machine/whatever.

No idea about casinos, but most contests in the US are required by law to list the odds and it'll be somewhere in the fine print. But then its been a long time since I've played the big lotto.

lotar295 · August 2012

Theres a reason for them not to list it:They probably think that if we know the odds we can weigh buying it or saving up 50 dollars,either that or that we can figure out how many it would take us to get,which last time it was around,was 18 for me,Im just doing to steer clear of the whole thing this time around.

nepht · August 2012

rap9 wrote: »

No idea about casinos, but most contests in the US are required by law to list the odds and it'll be somewhere in the fine print. But then its been a long time since I've played the big lotto.

Yeah thats whut my minions were saying , they banged on about how Cryptic HAS to post the drop rate from the grab bags ..I wasnt so sure because you can get the bags for free from grind. Hard one to judge that

haleakala · August 2012

nepht wrote: »

Yeah thats whut my minions were saying , they banged on about how Cryptic HAS to post the drop rate from the grab bags ..I wasnt so sure because you can get the bags for free from grind. Hard one to judge that

Cryptic is in no way legally required to post the drop rate. Whether the bags can be gotten free or not is not a factor. The FF Slot bags are not a lottery, no matter how many people want to make as if they are.

bluedarky · August 2012

The only time a company is required to post the odds for winning a prize is for a monetary prize.

takodaten · August 2012

The only thing I am extremely curious about is are the odds altered during the course of a grab bag's life. Not showing the odds, not expressly stating if they change or not; these things just make them look shady.

However, the only way that matters is if Cryptic/PWE cares about their public appearance. I believe a few employees might, but the company as a whole doesn't care. There are, of course, other factors in my opinion on this. Those are for another post on another day, though.

secksegai · August 2012

From my previous experience, I'd say the drop rate from the FF bag was a lot better than the Harmon Catalyst...

However, there's no telling if that number has been readjusted.

megaerik000 · August 2012

Well i farmed the drifter dailies like crazy for the FF grab bags, and spent about 4k c-points. I opened nearly 90 bags, and got 4 slots. Excluding both extremes, i notices a lot of people claiming getting a FF slot about every 20 or so bags, which was also my experience. My money is on 5%. Also for what its worth, when people were asking on zone what the drop rate was, many agreed with me. Granted this is anecdotal, but thanks to the people on zone, i think it shows a fairly sizable sample.

If 5% is accurate, average cost of the new FF slot is about 2000 zen, which is much easier to stomach. Ill edit this post after i shoot for my fifth slot.

EDIT:
Bought the bundle, got another FF slot, for those keeping score at home, that's 5 slots in about 100 bags.

liphook2 · August 2012

From my experience I'd say 1 in 20 is about right.

Last time, my first bag gave ff slot, then got second within another
19 or so bags.

Yesterday I bought 5, and got one ff (Funnily enough the first bag again)

But why do people gets Sooo uptight about it, and jealous if you get one? Someone actually threatened to report spam/ignore me because I mentioned I'd gained another ff slot?!?

I was fully expecting just salvage, and wouldn't have put a downer on others that got a ff slot.

zerojad · August 2012

Again, it is random. Get or don't get it.
From first time Drifter's mission, i did dailies only got my first ff slot around 40+ (some from missions others bought with CP) funny when i bought 2 character slot to make another character to do the drifter mission and i got that ff slot on my main.
Then the 2nd ff slot i got by buying drifter's bag after the missions were over.

Yesterday wasted on 6 grabs = nothing.

forutnefire · August 2012

I needed a freeform slot for...the future...and I had enough zen saved up to do the 11 for 10 deal.

I got my slot on the 6th one. not sure what that means--if anything. Thought it might help you with percentages or what not.

liphook2 · August 2012

forutnefire wrote: »

I needed a freeform slot for...the future...and I had enough zen saved up to do the 11 for 10 deal.

I got my slot on the 6th one. not sure what that means--if anything. Thought it might help you with percentages or what not.

Hey Flare, off topic but I really enjoyed the CC you hosted the other night.. never done one before..

Glad you got a FF slot.. :cool:

mainscrizz · August 2012

zerojad wrote: »

Again, it is random. Get or don't get it.
From first time Drifter's mission, i did dailies only got my first ff slot around 40+ (some from missions others bought with CP) funny when i bought 2 character slot to make another character to do the drifter mission and i got that ff slot on my main.
Then the 2nd ff slot i got by buying drifter's bag after the missions were over.

Yesterday wasted on 6 grabs = nothing.

at least you got some.....

myself and at least 2 others i know have gone through the 60/70+ bag range and have gotten nothing. :eek:

:mad:

roughbearmattach · August 2012

Using some probability math:
Total failure only happens if every bag is a loser.
If the drop rate is 5%, then the fail rate is 95%. (1 in 20 is 5% rate)
The chance of total failure is the result of multiple, independent probabilities, or P^n, where n is the number of trials.
The chance of success is therefore 1 - p^n.
Mind you, this is the chance for getting at least one FF slot.

The chances of success for at least one FF slot

1 bag = 5%
11 bag bundle = 43%
22 bags = 78%
100 bags = 99.5%

So, someone who buys 10 bags or less probably won't get a FF slot, but might.
Someone who buys 20 or 30 bags likely will get a FF slot, but might not.
Your chance only approaches certainty when buying 100+ bags.

By the way, a FF slot costs 5000 Z, and 5000 Z buys you 55 bags. Your chance of getting one FF slot

55 bags = 94%

Those are good odds, and you also have a small chance to get multiple FF slots. Moreover, since you buy the grab bags in bundles of 11 (or one at a time), you can opt out and pay less if you get the FF slot "earlier".

theravenforce · August 2012

mainscrizz wrote: »

at least you got some.....

myself and at least 2 others i know have gone through the 60/70+ bag range and have gotten nothing. :eek: :mad:

When if first came out I bought about 70~80 bags accross my account, the most being 40 on one char, as a result I got 3 ff slots in those 40 bags, I really wish they were tradeable once you got one, I would sell 1 of mine...

elsawhitworth · August 2012

And just for those who don't understand probability, it is still entirely possible to buy hundreds of grab bags and get no FF slots. The more you buy, the more likely it is that you will get a slot, but there is always a chance that you might never see one. It may be unlikely, but really, I've opened over 50 of the things between this promo and the last, and have yet to get a slot. (note, not a rant about the odds or anything. I took my chances and lost, that's what happens when one gambles. Would love it if the odds were openly known, but I can also see the arguments for not doing so.)

roughbearmattach · August 2012

The odds could well be less than 5%.

elsawhitworth · August 2012

roughbearmattach wrote: »

The odds could well be less than 5%.

Really I think 5% is rather high anyway. My thinking is it's closer to 1 or 2 percent or lower.

roughbearmattach · August 2012

At 1%, the odds drop precipituously:

11 bags = 11% chance of at least one FF slot
22 bags = 20%
33 bags = 29%
44 bags = 36%
55 bags = 43%
.
.
.
99 bags = 63%

Ouch.

Still, those odds look a little more like the anecdotes we see. Maybe its 2%?

crypticbuxom · August 2012

I would only be interested in getting these things if they were tradeable tokens.

nepht · August 2012

roughbearmattach wrote: »

At 1%, the odds drop precipituously:

11 bags = 11% chance of at least one FF slot
22 bags = 20%
33 bags = 29%
44 bags = 36%
55 bags = 43%
.
.
.
99 bags = 63%

Ouch.

Still, those odds look a little more like the anecdotes we see. Maybe its 2%?

Very odd day today.

Right some of you might be aware of my even MOAR trollish bro Gingervitus that lives under a bridge somewhere in the north of Great Britain :P

We both grind like nutters so we both had plenty of CP to do some experiments and something iffy was implied.

Anyhoo heres the maths of the experiment.

First up Im a LTS gold member and he is a Silver player that has grinded for everything he has the little git hasnt paid a dime

We both bought 20 FF grab bags.

I got 7 slots while Ginger got just 1.

Ok I am happy as sin for having extra toon slots but it looked like I got a better chance at wining because of my account status.

Or it could be just luck and I am a paranoid crazy person with to many tin foil hats

championshewolf · August 2012

nepht wrote: »

Or it could be just luck and I am a paranoid crazy person with to many tin foil hats

You're always paranoid.

agentnx5 · August 2012

elsawhitworth wrote: »

Really I think 5% is rather high anyway. My thinking is it's closer to 1 or 2 percent or lower

I know I've said this before on these forums, something that was discovered before the C-Store (err Z-Store now) was pulled from the PTS because of Perfect World's policy:

It's a time dependent chance function, mostly likely either a piecewise function or exponential decay (like a halflife curve).

What does this mean? Well the best odds for you to get one will be when the promotion starts, in the first several hours after the server patching finished and the doors to login re-open. This gives a boost of supply to the market, and gets people bragging on Zone chat that they got lucky (legitimate excitement no doubt, and congrats to the lucky ones).

After this initial wave the % chance of success drops with time until it reaches it's normal value. I believe tradeable RetCon tokens from the service bags (which are now gone or missing it would seem) were at something like 0.5% success chance when not in a promotion event. I would say 1% to 2% is quite reasonable for this particular gambling purchase item.

In total I have bought 10 Drifter Bags (1000 Zen, from stipend), and in-game aquired about 36 to 38 from in-game mini-quests from the Drifter.

I consider myself lucky as I have gotten two Harmon Catalysts. But it should be noted that BOTH were during the first 6 hours of promotional events (after the server came back online from updating).

Fact: I have gotten zero exclusive/jackpot chance items from ANY Z-Store purchase with real funds. Even the RetCon token (which I still have) was from one of two service bags I bought for 15g each from some trader.

My professional advice is if you're not able to be one of the first people in after the server resets and a new sale promotion chance thing starts with the Drifter guy in-game, then it doesn't appear to be worth it.

I know of one trader who has seeming unlimited real-money funds who literally buys hundreds of grab bags

liphook2 · August 2012

agentnx5 wrote: »

My professional advice is if you're not able to be one of the first people in after the server resets and a new sale promotion chance thing starts with the Drifter guy in-game, then it doesn't appear to be worth it.

That would explain a lot... when I gained FF slots on the first bags I opened, it was just after the event started.. so that makes perfect sense..

It's a pretty clever marketing trick as you say, I immediately began telling others how great getting a FF slot was (genuinely pleased, not trying to make others feel bad)

...and, I wanted to buy more bags, as the chances of getting another seemed good..

mainscrizz · August 2012

liphook2 wrote: »

That would explain a lot... when I gained FF slots on the first bags I opened, it was just after the event started.. so that makes perfect sense..

It's a pretty clever marketing trick as you say, I immediately began telling others how great getting a FF slot was (genuinely pleased, not trying to make others feel bad)

...and, I wanted to buy more bags, as the chances of getting another seemed good..

ok well officially i've gone through the 100+ range
and not a single slot.

what a croc.

I don't like seeing ppl posting bogus drop rates.

drifter salvage is soo worthless plus u usually get 1 per bag.

for all i care, they can suck a fat juicy one. :biggrin:

roughbearmattach · August 2012

Dang.
A time-dependent probability function.
That does suck.
By the way. if you are going to buy 55 bags, you could simply just buy one slot.
I guess it similar to why folks spend a bit of money on a carnival game, when the same cheap toy could be bought at the store for less.

jonsills · August 2012

What is often forgotten, when people read these analyses, is that the cumulative odds are still just that - cumulative. The chances for each individual bag will remain unchanged. In other words, if the drop rate is, say, 2%, and you buy 55 bags, open 54, and get nothing, the odds that the next bag will have a FF slot is still 2%. In the wise words of Larry Niven, "Lady Luck has no memory."

angelofcaine · August 2012

jonsills wrote: »

...In the wise words of Larry Niven, "Lady Luck has no memory."

(TRANSLATION for the internet game inclined) "The RNG hates me!"

biffsmackwell · August 2012

Hey guys.

I just bought 5 bags on my free account, with the Zen that I'd earned from surveys.

1 Drifter Salvage
1 Drifter Salvage
3 Drifter Salvage
Character slot
1 Drifter Salvage

This is on a silver account that was created only a few weeks ago. It's never been gold. And I just did this at 8:50 pm server time. Last server reset was yesterday morning.

Just throwing some fuel on the fire!

ashensnow · August 2012

mainscrizz wrote: »

ok well officially i've gone through the 100+ range
and not a single slot.

what a croc.

Just to be clear, you bought and used 100+ of these grab bags, for approximately 10,000 Zen (?), the price of two FreeForm slots... ?

How is your decision to gamble rather than buy what you wanted Cryptic's fault ?

I am honestly curious here.

agentnx5 · August 2012

rap9 wrote: »

No idea about casinos, but most contests in the US are required by law to list the odds and it'll be somewhere in the fine print. But then its been a long time since I've played the big lotto.

CORRECT. This is US Federal Register law folks. It doesn't matter if they want to or if it's wise or not, it's the law.

Now that said the video game industry gets around it by using an intermediary currency, and in fact Champions uses multiple currencies, on of which you can get for free (i.e.: Questionite) for an added layer of legal protection.

We're quite well shielded from gambling laws, for better or worse but here's a scary fact (and it IS scary & factual):

In the United States, online poker gambling was made illegal (even though the poker players were asking openly to be taxed more, when that was the excuse given).

The IRS (possibly the most powerful agency in the in entire world, bar none), simply sent out a directive email and EVERY website was seized by the FBI and brought offline. Any funds (and I'm talking thousands upon thousands of dollars here) were simply frozen and claimed by the IRS, even outside of the US! There is nowhere safe on this planet from the reach of the IRS, especially when all they have to do to get access is to use the magic keyword: terrorist.

So what happens is if you want to make a case out of this from a legal standpoint (and Perfect World not posting the chance % is a violation of US law), the IRS could get involved and the entire website and every one of your characters will be gone!

The poker gamers are infinitely more wealthy, numerous, and influential than this little game, or all MMO's for that case.

So please, this is a can of worms I'd strongly advise not opening, because government oversight isn't going to make thing better if it nukes everything!

Let it go people... Let the market do the talking. This is simply a risk not worth taking... Please listen to me on this... There are more positive things we can do to improve.

caycepollard · August 2012

jonsills wrote: »

What is often forgotten, when people read these analyses, is that the cumulative odds are still just that - cumulative. The chances for each individual bag will remain unchanged. In other words, if the drop rate is, say, 2%, and you buy 55 bags, open 54, and get nothing, the odds that the next bag will have a FF slot is still 2%. In the wise words of Larry Niven, "Lady Luck has no memory."

I don't think "cumulative" means what you think it means, but maybe I'm just misreading your post..

cu?mu?la?tive
[kyoo-myuh-luh-tiv, -ley-tiv]
adjective
1. increasing or growing by accumulation or successive additions: the cumulative effect of one rejection after another.
2. formed by or resulting from accumulation or the addition of successive parts or elements.
3. of or pertaining to interest or dividends that, if not paid when due, become a prior claim for payment in the future: cumulative preferred stocks.

In this case, the odds don't accumulate based on .. well, anything. It's a flat hypothetically-2% (or whatever the drop rate actually is) chance that is unaffected by outside factors. This isn't a case where "buying more bags increases the chances of winning", like a "limited number of raffle tickets available"-type situation where one could buy 99 out of 100 tickets, thus cumulatively increasing their chance of winning.

agentnx5 · August 2012

ashensnow wrote: »

mainscrizz wrote:

ok well officially i've gone through the 100+ range
and not a single slot.

what a croc.

Just to be clear, you bought and used 100+ of these grab bags, for approximately 10,000 Zen (?), the price of two FreeForm slots... ?

How is your decision to gamble rather than buy what you wanted Cryptic's fault ?

I am honestly curious here.

I agree with AshenSnow 100% here. There's no "croc of BS", only your own foolishness. Then again history is full of fools who have gambled away fortunes, read a novel or watch an old western film sometime and you'd know that easily.

It's human nature, animal behavior patterns actually. Some people see something shiny they want and even being told their odds are low they "feel lucky". Other people apply logic too much and never take risks, always playing it safe.

In my experience, the people who strike it rich know how to practice hard, work smart (solid work ethic + reliability + creative problem solving + critical analysis), and take calculated risks towards the objective.

Since I brought up Poker before, I'll mention this professional's tip here, since it applies...

There are four types of people in this world:
Passive Offensive
Passive Defensive
Aggressive Offensive
Aggressive Defensive
If you learn how to read people and figure out what they are and practice your manipulation skills for each, you can start to take their money away, to their suprise.

The first steps however are to remember the basics:

1. All the glitters isn't gold. (control your impulses to jump for a jackpot; and money isn't happiness)

2. The house always wins in the end. (Cryptic/PerfectWorld is the house, they win if you win or loose)

3. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered (longer term investements are better than looking for a quick reward)

PS: Bill Gates was also and avid poker player, especially when he was still in college.

caycepollard · August 2012

agentnx5 wrote: »

I know I've said this before on these forums, something that was discovered before the C-Store (err Z-Store now) was pulled from the PTS because of Perfect World's policy:

It's a time dependent chance function, mostly likely either a piecewise function or exponential decay (like a halflife curve).

What does this mean? Well the best odds for you to get one will be when the promotion starts, in the first several hours after the server patching finished and the doors to login re-open. This gives a boost of supply to the market, and gets people bragging on Zone chat that they got lucky (legitimate excitement no doubt, and congrats to the lucky ones).

After this initial wave the % chance of success drops with time until it reaches it's normal value. I believe tradeable RetCon tokens from the service bags (which are now gone or missing it would seem) were at something like 0.5% success chance when not in a promotion event. I would say 1% to 2% is quite reasonable for this particular gambling purchase item.

In total I have bought 10 Drifter Bags (1000 Zen, from stipend), and in-game aquired about 36 to 38 from in-game mini-quests from the Drifter.

I consider myself lucky as I have gotten two Harmon Catalysts. But it should be noted that BOTH were during the first 6 hours of promotional events (after the server came back online from updating).

Fact: I have gotten zero exclusive/jackpot chance items from ANY Z-Store purchase with real funds. Even the RetCon token (which I still have) was from one of two service bags I bought for 15g each from some trader.

My professional advice is if you're not able to be one of the first people in after the server resets and a new sale promotion chance thing starts with the Drifter guy in-game, then it doesn't appear to be worth it.

I know of one trader who has seeming unlimited real-money funds who literally buys hundreds of grab bags

.... Wow. This is a terribly disingenuous post. If you'd cite some sources other than "thin air" and "personal anecdotes", then maybe this whole "only buy when server resets" theory might be barely-plausible. As it is, you're just whipping up a pitchfork toting mob with your semi-conspiracy theory. :rolleyes:

jonsills · August 2012

caycepollard wrote: »

In this case, the odds don't accumulate based on .. well, anything. It's a flat hypothetically-2% (or whatever the drop rate actually is) chance that is unaffected by outside factors. This isn't a case where "buying more bags increases the chances of winning", like a "limited number of raffle tickets available"-type situation where one could buy 99 out of 100 tickets, thus cumulatively increasing their chance of winning.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The odds analysis given earlier went as high as expected odds of a payoff after 50 bags, but if someone had no idea how chance works (which is what drives sales of these bags in the first place, let us be frank) they might open, say, forty such bags, then look at someone's odds table, and think, "Hey, if I open one more bag, there's a [for instance] 47% chance it'll be there this time!" In fact, the odds for bag #798 are exactly the same as the odds for bag #1. You want to buy lots of bags in a wild attempt to win an FF slot, knock yourself out - but remember, it's not Cryptic's fault when you're out eighty bucks and all you get is a metric frakton of Drifter Salvage...

agentnx5 · August 2012

caycepollard wrote: »

This is a terribly disingenuous post. If you'd cite some sources other than "thin air" and "personal anecdotes", then maybe this whole "only buy when server resets" theory might be barely-plausible. As it is, you're just whipping up a pitchfork toting mob with your semi-conspiracy theory. :rolleyes:

Hey, lay off the uncalled for acrid sarcastic dramatics, mmk...

You are more than welcome to make your own observations, and much of the data I have seen is from other people. Some people have gotten unjustly muted for it (i.e.: Lohr, the wiki mistress) in the past if I recall, so I see no need to risk their safety simply because you are skeptical and insisting I'd look good in a tinfoil hat. :-P Believe what you will.

I learned long ago, you can't make somebody change their mind, you can influence (extremely even, such as at gunpoint), but the power of choice is ultimately individual.

That said, in trying to aquiese to your curiosity (even if you're being an a** towards me about it). Members of The Collective primarily. Together they've collected over 1000 of various bags and observed. Before the PTS C-Store was removed, tested there too. Me being me; I listen, watch, and remember.

I've also tried their findings myself and noticed there does seem to be better luck, and on top of that it makes sense from a marketing standpoint.

If you want to collect 800 to 1000 bags and document it proper and refute this as a false confirmation, then by all means feel free to do so.

Futhermore, let me be clear:

I have no issue with gambling.
(clearly you haven't read most of what I wrote)

There isn't a reason for "pitchforks" but rather a reason to BUY things that just went on sale if you already had plans to buy and save up currency for when these sales occur. Cryptic I'm positive will be pleased to see sales increase and players get more too. It's win-win. Worst case scenerio? They change the algorithm, which ONLY Cryptic knows for certain!

roughbearmattach · August 2012

jonsills wrote: »

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The odds analysis given earlier went as high as expected odds of a payoff after 50 bags, but if someone had no idea how chance works (which is what drives sales of these bags in the first place, let us be frank) they might open, say, forty such bags, then look at someone's odds table, and think, "Hey, if I open one more bag, there's a [for instance] 47% chance it'll be there this time!" In fact, the odds for bag #798 are exactly the same as the odds for bag #1. You want to buy lots of bags in a wild attempt to win an FF slot, knock yourself out - but remember, it's not Cryptic's fault when you're out eighty bucks and all you get is a metric frakton of Drifter Salvage...

The odds analysis I provided is sound. I gave the odds of winning at least one bag.

Though each bag might have the same odds, the chance that you will win at least once does, in fact, go up the more you buy.

Try flipping a coin. Your chance of getting heads on that flip is 50%, but your chance of getting at least one heads after two flips is 75%, and after three flips 87.5%. In other words, your chance of running along without getting a heads gets smaller and smaller. Try it yourself. Your chance to get to four or five flips without a heads is very small.

Likewise, your chance to win at least once with the grab bags increases the more you play, though your chance to win on a given bag remains the same.

mainscrizz · August 2012

ashensnow wrote: »

Just to be clear, you bought and used 100+ of these grab bags, for approximately 10,000 Zen (?), the price of two FreeForm slots... ?

How is your decision to gamble rather than buy what you wanted Cryptic's fault ?

I am honestly curious here.

hey smart-as5, 80+ of these were gotten b4 there was even a slot to be purchased.

agentnx5 wrote: »

...

since when did this forum get filled with people making personal attacks?

Last I saw, I wasn't talking to you or the other fellow.

Did you guys ask how I paid for these slots?
No, you jumped to conclusions and assumed i paid for these with my money.
You never stopped to think that maybe I used my stipend and Q earned CP?
Before trying to place people into categories and start accusing or trying to belittle them, maybe you should get all the facts.

People like you ruin the atmosphere of community.

ashensnow · August 2012

mainscrizz wrote: »

hey smart-as5, 80+ of these were gotten b4 there was even a slot to be purchased.

Perhaps its better to be a smart **** than a dumb **** ?

since when did this forum get filled with people making personal attacks?

You mean like calling people names like "smart-as5" for daring to ask you for clarification ?

Last I saw, I wasn't talking to you or the other fellow.

Did you guys ask how I paid for these slots?
No, you jumped to conclusions and assumed i paid for these with my money.

Odd, you just jumped to a conclusion about what people are assuming. I asked you a question. You chose, as is your right, to not answer it.

You never stopped to think that maybe I used my stipend and Q earned CP?

Is this another assumption ?

Before trying to place people into categories and start accusing or trying to belittle them, maybe you should get all the facts.

People like you ruin the atmosphere of community.

Odd, I thought it was people who attacked others for daring to ask them a question on a public forum who did that.

Have a nice day.

agentnx5 · August 2012

mainscrizz wrote: »

smart-as5

Hey lookie! Word filter dodging!

mainscrizz wrote: »

since when did this forum get filled with people making personal attacks?

Yeah... no. lol

Neither him nor I made personal attack on your character, by definition (look it up). And slights against your ego were imagined insults strictly by you.

I'm sure you're a perfectly normal of good character person in everyday life.

mainscrizz wrote: »

Last I saw, I wasn't talking to you or the other fellow.

Wrong again. This is a public internet forum, not private correspondance. You should expect some people to agree, some people to disagree, and some people to vehemently disagree. 'Tis the nature of the internet.

There's a good saying about this: "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen!"

mainscrizz wrote: »

Did you guys ask how I paid for these slots?
[...]
you should get all the facts.

Doh! I'll be sure to turn on my telepathy next time. My bad. :-3

mainscrizz wrote: »

People like you ruin the atmosphere of community.

Interesting... and now you're actually being a hypocrite yourself by making an attack on MY character (when nobody did that to you)... I guess I should retract my earlier compliment on your character then.

Funny thing is, I really couldn't care less what you think of me.

LOL! No really, so frikin' what? Haha

I'm always myself. I don't put on pretty facades, brownose, or get intimidated by or for anyone. I am me. I have emotions, thoughts, and opinions just like any of you. I'm surrounded by friends who frequently comment on my generosity and loyalty (I'm also loyal to this game btw).

You are nothing to me.

agentnx5 · August 2012

Getting back on topic...

roughbearmattach wrote: »

the chance that you will win at least once does, in fact, go up the more you buy.

This is partially FALSE.

roughbearmattach wrote: »

Likewise, your chance to win at least once with the grab bags increases the more you play, though your chance to win on a given bag remains the same.

This is TRUE.

Can you spot the minor discrepancy? :-)

Keep in mind, human behavior instinct is counter intuitive here. Use your combinations and permutations mathematical formulas if you need to see why!

Q1 (statistics): Which of the following are grab bags in this game? (4 choices)
http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html

Q2 (economics): Now what is the opportunity cost rate for playing?

roughbearmattach · August 2012

I stand by what I said, but I will rephrase:

The longer you play a game with any chance of winning, the greater the likelihood of winning at least once.

Your chance to win any particular game does not change.

The probabilities I calculated were for winning at least once, which increase the more times you play.

neuraldamage · August 2012

Oh gawd, more "maths is fun" whizzes on the forum.*

(*now which definition of "whiz" did I mean? :biggrin:)

3 thoughts....

1. None of you will encounter a sample set large enough to determine the true odds.

2. Any "calculation of odds" from observation depends on the probability of each outcome being identical. You have NO assurances of this being the case.

3. Nor do you have any assurance that the actual odds of winning for this series of grab bags is the same as the last series of grab bags.

Personally I wouldn't touch this series and fortunately since I took home 5 FF slots last time... I don't have to.

But good luck to those of you rolling the dice.

Freeform grab bag drop rate

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