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Forums > Home› Neverwinter Discussion › Bug Reports (PC)

upgrading enchantments/Runestones from 4 to 5

nilatornilator Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 37 Arc User
edited October 2014 in Bug Reports (PC)
I have been upgrading from 4 to 5 and keeping track of it. Right now I am 12/32. Which is 37 percent. The percentage of success from a 4 to 5 is 60%. A couple of days ago I had it fail 7 times in a row. At one point a while back. I had it fail like 16 times in a row on the first try. Something is bugged here. Can somebody look into? Thanks. Nile
Post edited by nilator on

Comments

  • lewstelamon01lewstelamon01 Member Posts: 7,415 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Nothing is bugged. The system is working as intended. The chance displayed is independent of any other attempts you make at refinement/enhancement. You're confusing odds with probability.

    To elaborate:

    Compare it to a success throw in PnP D&D. Each time you refine your item, the system "rolls" a d100 to determine whether the attempt succeeds or fails. If your throw is 40 or greater, the attempt succeeds, otherwise, the attempt fails. Therefore, it is possible to fail multiple times in a row before you succeed.
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  • sprawlfxsprawlfx Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    The only problem I have with the statistics of this is that it takes like.. thousands of attempts to achieve the actual stated percentage.. and the only ones doing those kinds of numbers are the 'badguys' (non-players - that's a euphemism) and testers. This is a game and is about virtuality (I don't know if that is a word- if not, it is now.)

    So expectations are, in fact, set by the percentages shown on the dialogue. But that is not what happens. It is not a bug. But it should still be fixed. Sometimes it is a good thing to just toss your fans a bone.

    If the stated chance is 60%, then 5, 6, or 7 of 10 should succeed. I know that is not how it works in life. But we come here to get away from that. =)

    Just my opinion, don't have to agree with me, or even disagree with me. You get my point whether you want to admit it or not. (Which is not to suggest that my point invalidates any other opinion. I don't really care about this so much. Not interested in making any rank 5's and can't imagine why anyone but a botter would be, other than that some people mistakenly think doing so has value beyond making stacks of 99 to post for refiners to buy.)
  • nilatornilator Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 37 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Thank you for the explanation lewstelamon01. Even though I do not understand how the 60% success ratio effects if you role a 40 or higher. I know it is an example. As you can tell I do not know the game mechanics when they become so detailed.

    Also thank you sprawlfx for your 2 cents.
  • nilatornilator Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 37 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Sorry I understand the 40 or higher now. Meaning you have a 100. Then take away 60 and you have to roll a 40 or higher for success. Like if you had a 40 percent chance. You would have to role a 60 or higher. Thanks again!!!
  • lordfuzunlordfuzun Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 54
    edited October 2014
    sprawlfx wrote: »
    The only problem I have with the statistics of this is that it takes like.. thousands of attempts to achieve the actual stated percentage.. and the only ones doing those kinds of numbers are the 'badguys' (non-players - that's a euphemism) and testers. This is a game and is about virtuality (I don't know if that is a word- if not, it is now.)

    So expectations are, in fact, set by the percentages shown on the dialogue. But that is not what happens. It is not a bug. But it should still be fixed. Sometimes it is a good thing to just toss your fans a bone.

    If the stated chance is 60%, then 5, 6, or 7 of 10 should succeed. I know that is not how it works in life. But we come here to get away from that. =)

    Just my opinion, don't have to agree with me, or even disagree with me. You get my point whether you want to admit it or not. (Which is not to suggest that my point invalidates any other opinion. I don't really care about this so much. Not interested in making any rank 5's and can't imagine why anyone but a botter would be, other than that some people mistakenly think doing so has value beyond making stacks of 99 to post for refiners to buy.)

    That isn't how probability works. There is no guarantee in getting any specific result. ( i.e. always getting 6 out of 10 refinement chances to work.) Every try is totally independent of any other. There is no memory of past failures or successes. It's entirely possible to get 10 failures in a row. It's not very likely to happen but it is possible.

    And Cryptic isn't being dishonest in the Refinement Chance displays. They say and mean you have a X in 100 chance of success.

    In regards to failures in another aspect of the game. Resource nodes in the game. Kits have a 75% chance to work. And yet I've quite a few strings of 4 and even 5 failures in a row. The odds of the strings of failure are quite low. But they can and do occur.
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