Unfortunately the idea of adding an bonus 10% or 15% ad to players selling zen via the exchange would not change anything. The bonus would have to be a minimum of 100% to have any effect since this is the amount of extra ad players get by selling zen market items instead of the exchange.
Well, they're doing something... selling C. Wards for AD through the Wondrous Bazaar at the moment, but since you can only buy 1 per account, that's not going to have a noticeable impact on the ZAX.
My view on this is that they should leave the coal ward in the WB permanently with no limit on how many you can buy if they want to stabilize the ZAX. Did I write all this already can't be bothered looking back to find out I need to get moving, ages back I used to buy zen and would buy coal wards and sell them on the AH because I needed AD and that was the reason I bought the zen in the first place, the going rate was around 500k in the AH I think, at some stage later on after doing this many times I found out about the ZAX and looked into it properly and discovered I was selling myself short and could have been getting more AD from just doing a straight convert using the ZAX so I started doing that. -People will use whichever method makes them the most AD obliviously. You'd be stupid not to. But currently coal wards are selling for around 800 - 900k and over but you get far less when you use the ZAX. Several hundred thousand less. I know you guys know this already, but this is why people are not using the ZAX and buying coal wards and why the ZAX is grinding to a halt. To stop this there needs to be a stabilization of coal ward prices and having them in the WB is a perfect way to do this, but it cannot be limited to 1 per account. It could stay bound and work fine, but players need to be able to get as much of a supply as they need and avoid paying the AH prices. If this happened people would stop buying coal wards on the AH because they made no economic sense at the current rates and people would either list them at the correct rate or just use the ZAX again.
Apparently pointing-out the bleeding obvious is a 'personal attack'.
My view on this is that they should leave the coal ward in the WB permanently with no limit on how many you can buy if they want to stabilize the ZAX.
It wouldn't alone solve the Zax problem.
The true issue and reasons why the backlog is continuously building up is that you have a combination of :
- huge incentives to get Zen with your AD. Without speaking about Zax=>ZenMarket=>AH loop to grow wealth from wealth, at least everyone want to be perma-VIP (and maybe want some bank slots, some character slots, some pack with account wide-bags/mount/comp, etc).
- no incentive at all to exchange Zen for AD by the Zax as there are much more efficient ways to get value from your Zen (and honestly, Zen best sellers on AH like coalescent and preserv can be "farmed" as BtA with a bit of dedication after building up your account with Zen [namely the power of alt-army doing the first invoke/speaking once a day to NPCs during the winter or summer fest])
- no way to create Zen beside paying $$ since Arc Quests have been interrupted and never revived
- hoarders from ancient ages who don't need to buy much AD or Zen things (either because nothing of interest to buy, or because have already buy quite everything), and are constantly rolling 5x5k Zen into preservation into AH into more AD into Zax to continue rolling (because it's fun to see my AD bank + some mules saturated at 100M AD ^^).
Anyway, Your exemple to put the coalescent seals in the WB is a good one, but you don't go/think far enough.
As a reminder, once upon a time, the WB was one reliable way to make AD with AD. It is still occasionnally possible nowdays to use it for eco, but it's not so huge as years ago (when Zax was floating at least a bit and not backlogged). For exemple augment cubes had a 6-10% markup during almost all the mod19 for a VIP12, even outside buying on a WB discount event, and some marks can still be exploited nowdays in-between x2 sublimation events (though you won't get much either).
It wouldn't be long before wealthy VIP12 players would buy loads of coalescent with their VIP discount+WB bazar discount, selling it weeks later a bit under the full buying price, making a markup on their AD invested, markup that will ultimately be poured into the Zax to purchase Zen.
It may be the begining of an idea though ^^ => BtA coalescent in the WB at 750k AD (current equivalent to full price in Zen with no discount) to prevent rich account from exploiting it and easily grow more wealth => remove the BtA coalescent/preservation from the invoke astral chest drops (would hurt my alt-army though ^^) => remove the coalescent from the ZenMarket (to make it an AD or dungeon endchest exclusive) (but then we may be a bit concerned about the enchant prices, especially armor and weapon ones, as it's one way to convert the "free" wards from invoke astral chest and marks and stones from Sybella into AD via the AH, and as currently on AH you aren't really paying in the final product the full price of those components used to upgrade enchants ^^)
Post edited by tchefi#6735 on
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,417Arc User
edited June 2021
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*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
I will post here when I will got the zen from the 18 and 21 jan.
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
I got my 5000 zen from 18 jan. 2021 => today 21 june 2021.
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
I doubt very much that Cryptic are in a hurry to resolve this as a long ZAX wait encourages people to pay cash for ZEN. If they really wanted to cut the backlog they could just reduce the amount of ZEN someone can order from the ZAX to say 3 postings of 2000 ZEN each.
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,417Arc User
I doubt very much that Cryptic are in a hurry to resolve this as a long ZAX wait encourages people to pay cash for ZEN. If they really wanted to cut the backlog they could just reduce the amount of ZEN someone can order from the ZAX to say 3 postings of 2000 ZEN each.
Nobody doubt that. There is no financial interest for Cryptic to do anything to improve the backlog at all (short or long term). For Cryptic, the backlog is not a problem. If they don't continue to make the backlog bigger (like what they have actively done for a year), it will be a positive news already. This thread is not about that "concern" anyway. This thread expects there is no Cryptic explicit "interference".
*** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
@plasticbat I personally don't mind discussing the side topic of "Zen Exchange Reform" here. Mr. Blargskull, my neighbor is still in Texas ... enjoying the tropical storms, I think. But over all what I am doing here is my small service to best answer the burning question, When will my zen arrive?
@plasticbat I personally don't mind discussing the side topic of "Zen Exchange Reform" here. Mr. Blargskull, my neighbor is still in Texas ... enjoying the tropical storms, I think. But over all what I am doing here is my small service to best answer the burning question, When will my zen arrive?
tbh the only thing I find useful here are the actual reports of orders completed. We're also a day or 2 away from the orders from the bonding runestone flood so any estimates are about to get delayed pretty bad.
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myles08807Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 409Arc User
Yesterday was the six month anniversary of my oldest ZAX bid. 5000 Zen at 750 AD per.
Yesterday was the six month anniversary of my oldest ZAX bid. 5000 Zen at 750 AD per.
Do you mean 5 month? My Jan 15th offer was already taken. For yours to be 6 months today it'd have to be up since Dec 23, not Jan 23.
I'm sure they looked at June and thought 6 months because it's our sixth month despite the end of June being 6 months.
The trend is running closer to 160, which is only 22 days less than 6 months. As @alistairetheblu#7442 stated above, anything can influence the trend in a positive or negative direction. Only slightly, unless they plan to make it rain AD. I just added 2 days to the formula on the sheet for the @fremen#4136 order on the 19th.
@myles08807 if you look at the exact day you posted, it should be some time in late January. Unless there is a big upset, all the January orders should be done by mid July at best.
@plasticbat I personally don't mind discussing the side topic of "Zen Exchange Reform" here. Mr. Blargskull, my neighbor is still in Texas ... enjoying the tropical storms, I think.
Eyho! I just got back from Texas. Last night we took in a motel in Arkansas, and in the wee hours of the morning the prima donna of our team woke us up complaining about a mouse in the room. He had us pack up and then he drove 14 hours back here! I wanted to return on Sunday, it isn't like the rental was due back and we don't have work until Monday. Oh well, there seems to always be that one who cuts the fun short. I got myself some cool souvenirs, we attended a seminar about some work stuff. I get to fill everyone in on 5 days of boredom, but I should be able to cut it down to 4 or 5 hours of dull stuff we already know and the company didn't need to shell out good money to hear someone else saying it. I will drop by for coffee in the morning and tell you all the details.
@regenerde whoa, STO backlogged? By how much? I am going to have a look at Champions exchange.
Edit: I just checked CO, 472:1 and people with zen are being offered 462:1 by the players. Looks high but still healthy.
@blargskull Well, the STO exchange jumped from no backlog to around 90k within a day, and has increased to 280k by now, which is all a bit strange to me, since the current sale in STO looks like just another sale...
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Anyway, have to wait and see when my next listing comes through in NWO.
@blargskull Well, the STO exchange jumped from no backlog to around 90k within a day, and has increased to 280k by now, which is all a bit strange to me, since the current sale in STO looks like just another sale...
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Anyway, have to wait and see when my next listing comes through in NWO.
Fortunately the players on STO should be able to clear that amount in under a week (based on numbers here) assuming Cryptic's STO team isn't playing with their Zen exchange. I posted over there last night, telling them the only 2 methods Cryptic has to mess with the exchange is flooding and sinks. If Cryptic is giving away free Dilithium, they are flooding the market and needs more sinks to remove it.
Off topic and Speculation: I have no clue what is going on with the economy there on STO. Prince Hamlet may be correct on this one, since STO is their big "money maker" for the fans of Star Trek. If they flood the STO exchange, they might be planning to use it in one of two ways.
Create another backlogged game in order to compel users to buy Zen instead of waiting for it.
Set up the complete removal and revamp of all exchanges, stating they are now broken beyond repair.
They claimed the web access was being botted and hacked years ago, most players assume that was the truth for pulling the web access down. If true, why has there been no mobile version app in the following years? Why didn't they correct the web code (as most companies do) placing in the anti-cheat tools needed?
They attempted those AD loot boxes, as poor sink. Most players didn't like them for the rewards. However if you make the rewards worth more this means people will not purchase the needed Zen to buy keys to open the lock boxes. I am of the opinion they need to pull out on selling lock boxes across all games. Lock boxes now have a bad reputation, thanks to many games, and feel very exploitative. Loot boxes (no money needed) should be their model. The players can crab about the RNG all they want, since they are not paying to open them. They would still sponge up some AD as needed sinks.
What should Cryptic sell? They should focus on value, reputation, and attract partners with money to back the game. Currently Bugatti has its own armor on some virtual knights. Wendy said, she has purchased 2 Bugatti and I have yet to see them.
I am reading for 1/21/2021 is 157.2 Days somewhere around tomorrow or the next day.
I just got done spending ALL day working on a "One Drive" issue. I swear to God that thing is 10 times worse than any virus made!
Gentle reminder Jan 21 was the day 8 million zen was requested via the diamonds from bonding runestone exchange. A better way to look ahead for a bit might be "how long does it take 8 million zen to get exchanged?" and "what time of day on the 21st did you post?
I am reading for 1/21/2021 is 157.2 Days somewhere around tomorrow or the next day.
I just got done spending ALL day working on a "One Drive" issue. I swear to God that thing is 10 times worse than any virus made!
Gentle reminder Jan 21 was the day 8 million zen was requested via the diamonds from bonding runestone exchange. A better way to look ahead for a bit might be "how long does it take 8 million zen to get exchanged?" and "what time of day on the 21st did you post?
Currently the backlog has been 68 to 69 million zen, people are getting it at a rate of every 160 days. Let's toss some numbers down on this;
60 million divided by 160 = 375,000 Zen per day is being cleared. 8 million zen would add 22 days.
65 million divided by 160 = 406,250 Zen per day is being cleared. 8 million zen would add 20 days.
At best it should add roughly 3 weeks, at worse it could add 2 months to the wait time.
If you go by @hotfrostworm spread sheet, he is showing a steady increase of wait time adding 0.6 days for each day. There have been 2 pushes moving the date up and only one pull back on the 6th of this month. If his sheet remains on track, it looks like you could be waiting up to a full year for any zen by this October. By that time the developers will have it all worked out. Right? I am going to poke my nose in over on STO and see what they are telling me.
They probably have a lot to say, but all the 4 lettered words get censored.
Jan 21 order of 4100 zen just went through, 3 hours before this comment. I'd say I got mine in that day early after the maintenance but not the absolute earliest possible.
I was right about those four letter words on STO, TRIBBLE TRIBBLE TRIBBLE!! There is an ongoing thread there about 9 pages long yesterday. People telling them to raise the 500:1 cap up higher, we here all know that works like a charm. I told them the cap was raised here and so did the flood of AD and inflation of prices in the auction house. Politicians promise to raise minimum wages, guess what... I don't work for minimum wage, congrats!
You just lowered my wage and raised the cost of living.
Still waiting for my 21 jan. 3H26 PM (Eastern US-Canada Time zone) order...
“He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.” ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
Gentle reminder Jan 21 was the day 8 million zen was requested via the diamonds from bonding runestone exchange. A better way to look ahead for a bit might be "how long does it take 8 million zen to get exchanged?" and "what time of day on the 21st did you post?
I am not sure how much it will set back the forecasting, but I wasn't keeping tabs on this back in January. All this tracking started in February. I totally agree with the numbers Blargskull gave above. Thinking about it, makes one ill, there are enough people throwing roughly $4,000 cash per day into this one feature. I imagine, you could estimate the game's revenue based on this number.
Comments
The bonus would have to be a minimum of 100% to have any effect since this is the amount of extra ad players get by selling zen market items instead of the exchange.
The true issue and reasons why the backlog is continuously building up is that you have a combination of :
- huge incentives to get Zen with your AD. Without speaking about Zax=>ZenMarket=>AH loop to grow wealth from wealth, at least everyone want to be perma-VIP (and maybe want some bank slots, some character slots, some pack with account wide-bags/mount/comp, etc).
- no incentive at all to exchange Zen for AD by the Zax as there are much more efficient ways to get value from your Zen (and honestly, Zen best sellers on AH like coalescent and preserv can be "farmed" as BtA with a bit of dedication after building up your account with Zen [namely the power of alt-army doing the first invoke/speaking once a day to NPCs during the winter or summer fest])
- no way to create Zen beside paying $$ since Arc Quests have been interrupted and never revived
- hoarders from ancient ages who don't need to buy much AD or Zen things (either because nothing of interest to buy, or because have already buy quite everything), and are constantly rolling 5x5k Zen into preservation into AH into more AD into Zax to continue rolling (because it's fun to see my AD bank + some mules saturated at 100M AD ^^).
Anyway,
Your exemple to put the coalescent seals in the WB is a good one, but you don't go/think far enough.
As a reminder, once upon a time, the WB was one reliable way to make AD with AD. It is still occasionnally possible nowdays to use it for eco, but it's not so huge as years ago (when Zax was floating at least a bit and not backlogged). For exemple augment cubes had a 6-10% markup during almost all the mod19 for a VIP12, even outside buying on a WB discount event, and some marks can still be exploited nowdays in-between x2 sublimation events (though you won't get much either).
It wouldn't be long before wealthy VIP12 players would buy loads of coalescent with their VIP discount+WB bazar discount, selling it weeks later a bit under the full buying price, making a markup on their AD invested, markup that will ultimately be poured into the Zax to purchase Zen.
It may be the begining of an idea though ^^
=> BtA coalescent in the WB at 750k AD (current equivalent to full price in Zen with no discount) to prevent rich account from exploiting it and easily grow more wealth
=> remove the BtA coalescent/preservation from the invoke astral chest drops (would hurt my alt-army though ^^)
=> remove the coalescent from the ZenMarket (to make it an AD or dungeon endchest exclusive)
(but then we may be a bit concerned about the enchant prices, especially armor and weapon ones, as it's one way to convert the "free" wards from invoke astral chest and marks and stones from Sybella into AD via the AH, and as currently on AH you aren't really paying in the final product the full price of those components used to upgrade enchants ^^)
5000 zen on 18 jan. 2021
5000 zen on 21 jan. 2021
5000 zen on 9 feb. 2021
5000 zen on 9 feb. 2021
I will post here when I will got the zen from the 18 and 21 jan.
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
@gildriador
5000 zen on 18 jan. 2021
5000 zen on 21 jan. 2021
These are estimated to arrive between 20th to 25th of June.
5000 zen on 9 feb. 2021
5000 zen on 9 feb. 2021
These are estimated to arrive around the 25th of July.
Thank you.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
@myles08807 if you look at the exact day you posted, it should be some time in late January. Unless there is a big upset, all the January orders should be done by mid July at best.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
And yes, order from Jan 19. went through June 24. One 4579 big chunk and the rest in 3 (2x100, 1x221) smaller portions.
156 days.
@regenerde whoa, STO backlogged? By how much? I am going to have a look at Champions exchange.
Edit: I just checked CO, 472:1 and people with zen are being offered 462:1 by the players. Looks high but still healthy.
Just killing time...
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark.
Anyway, have to wait and see when my next listing comes through in NWO.
Off topic and Speculation:
I have no clue what is going on with the economy there on STO. Prince Hamlet may be correct on this one, since STO is their big "money maker" for the fans of Star Trek. If they flood the STO exchange, they might be planning to use it in one of two ways.
- Create another backlogged game in order to compel users to buy Zen instead of waiting for it.
- Set up the complete removal and revamp of all exchanges, stating they are now broken beyond repair.
They claimed the web access was being botted and hacked years ago, most players assume that was the truth for pulling the web access down. If true, why has there been no mobile version app in the following years? Why didn't they correct the web code (as most companies do) placing in the anti-cheat tools needed?They attempted those AD loot boxes, as poor sink. Most players didn't like them for the rewards. However if you make the rewards worth more this means people will not purchase the needed Zen to buy keys to open the lock boxes. I am of the opinion they need to pull out on selling lock boxes across all games. Lock boxes now have a bad reputation, thanks to many games, and feel very exploitative. Loot boxes (no money needed) should be their model. The players can crab about the RNG all they want, since they are not paying to open them. They would still sponge up some AD as needed sinks.
What should Cryptic sell? They should focus on value, reputation, and attract partners with money to back the game. Currently Bugatti has its own armor on some virtual knights. Wendy said, she has purchased 2 Bugatti and I have yet to see them.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I just got done spending ALL day working on a "One Drive" issue. I swear to God that thing is 10 times worse than any virus made!
Just killing time...
60 million divided by 160 = 375,000 Zen per day is being cleared.
8 million zen would add 22 days.
65 million divided by 160 = 406,250 Zen per day is being cleared.
8 million zen would add 20 days.
At best it should add roughly 3 weeks, at worse it could add 2 months to the wait time.
If you go by @hotfrostworm spread sheet, he is showing a steady increase of wait time adding 0.6 days for each day. There have been 2 pushes moving the date up and only one pull back on the 6th of this month. If his sheet remains on track, it looks like you could be waiting up to a full year for any zen by this October. By that time the developers will have it all worked out. Right? I am going to poke my nose in over on STO and see what they are telling me.
They probably have a lot to say, but all the 4 lettered words get censored.
Just killing time...
You just lowered my wage and raised the cost of living.
Note to all developers: Take an economy seminar.
Just killing time...
― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
Just killing time...