I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me.
My 11/25/20 posting still does not arrive. However, I have just checked the exchange log. I made that posting on Nov 25, 2020 at 11:12pm EST.
Posted almost at midnight, it will most likely arrive in the morning. Just like good old Captain "Dread Pirate" Roberts would tell me, "Good night Blargskull. . Good work. Sleep well. I'll most likely kill you in the morning."
I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me.
^^. so far so good as I haven't recieved my Zen yet . Your prediction being accurate for me will be decided during the next 3 days (as i'm magnanimous, I let you have a +/- 1 day of margin my dear Great Oracle of the Zax )
LOL @blargskull You don't even go to the casino! Isn't against your religion? Besides, I have taken my husband to the casino with me before and all he does it watch me lose and drink free pop. When I asked him to go play Black Jack or something, he tells me, no thanks and says they would probably toss him out for counting cards. Do you even buy state lottery tickets? You know we have to keep the schools in business. Gambling in Michigan is your civic duty!
I have to get back to playing this game for now, but good work keeping track of this for those with the investment. I know you are not very serious about it. However this is a very positive and uplifting thread you started for the players here.
LOL @blargskull You don't even go to the casino! Isn't against your religion? Besides, I have taken my husband to the casino with me before and all he does it watch me lose and drink free pop. When I asked him to go play Black Jack or something, he tells me, no thanks and says they would probably toss him out for counting cards. Do you even buy state lottery tickets? You know we have to keep the schools in business. Gambling in Michigan is your civic duty!
Against my religion? No it is against my education of probabilities. I also don't buy lotto tickets to support the school system. As you know, I don't own any children as of yet. I have thought of renting them especially before April 15th.
I have to get back to playing this game for now, but good work keeping track of this for those with the investment. I know you are not very serious about it. However this is a very positive and uplifting thread you started for the players here.
How dare you contradict my real intensions, my long term goal here is to link the zen backlog to the chem-trail and JFK 7th shooter theories.
Just killing time...
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plasticbatMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 12,417Arc User
I hate to admit it, but it looks like the his formula predicts @tchefi#6735 's Nov. 27 - April 6th, is going to be hit or maybe a day early. If he has most these on the correct day, I really need Mr. Black at the casino with me.
It was not mine, but Magnus one. November 27th Zen purchase order was delivered this morning, on April 7th (CEST, i will check the exact hours later if you want)
2 others are incoming, posted both on 29th November.
@tchefi#6735 he is in Ohio, @blargskull went to a sporting event there with friends and should be back on Friday. My husband also left town on business and @hotfrostworm will be online Friday or Saturday. Sounds like they are not too concerned about hours as much as days. Good job helping them out with the information.
Thanks, we just rolled in this morning, I am going to get some sleep. It is very hard to get sleep when everyone is talking in the minivan. Maybe I would have got some sleep, if I was driving,
I added Magnus post to the list above. The "Zen Oracle" was off by a day.
I just responded to a PS4 user who apparently is either buying Zen or waiting on it to arrive. I will remind Brian to set some time aside this weekend to crunch some numbers here. I don't think he will mind too much. Just a reminder, today is the last day to file your taxes!
To sum this up, there is a calculable gradual rise to the number of days waited between postings and receipt of Zen.
This graph above shows the growth of time from July 25th to November 27th over a period of 4 months. It appears to be rising at roughly 0.6 days per day. That is about 14.5 hours more added to the wait time per day between postings. This can be changed by several factors that have been discussed on the forum many times already. This study, for my part, was to find this baseline calculation for you.
If you will excuse me, I have work and bills to pay. I hope you remembered, today is the last day to file your tax return by mail.
January 25th is +59 days after the last reported return posted above 11/27/20 to 4/6/21. If I am doing my math right 131 + (59 * 0.6) = 131 +35.4 = 166 days or more in total. Since 80 days has gone by.... 86 more to go? If I am doing this right, July 10th or later.
Just killing time...
1
someonediesMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,257Arc User
what's why I no longer spend Zen, only if there is something very very valuable available. I got mine 25k a week ago, request was made in November, backlog was 60kk or so, maybe someone confirm the exact number.
Well, if they had combined a working ZEN Charge Promotion with a better Weekend sale, 20% is a joke considering that you can get 20% discount coupons from invoking bags or drops, then may be we would have seen a bit more ZEN going into the ZAX...
With the exception of the decimal places, the days waiting looks like my blood glucose readings! But mine will be much higher by Christmas. My husband says anyone is welcome to take over on data tracking. We expect that will be off from time to time mainly due to human factors.
I know you are use to DD/MM/YY and he used MM/DD/YY on his spreadsheet.
Please know those estimates could be offset by a few days in either direction. Unless a vast change occurs (as some players are predicting) anyone posting AD for Zen in May will certainly be waiting until Christmas.
@sandukutupu@hotfrostworm in fact, i made my own sheet for my (and friends) forecasting ^^, i just share my recent data here with you . By the way, we currently get approximatively the same number about the "rising" of the Zax => 0.612 in mine with the last input on 11/29/2020 fulfilled on 10/04/2021. I'm waiting for the moment when demands "post bonding stones update" in the Zax are starting to be fulfilled as it will surely show a singularity.
Increased exchange times causes players to not spend their ZEN, causing p/c wards and token prices to go up and that in turn incentivizes people to be patient and sell wards/tokens on AH instead of buying AD directly off ZAX and hence the "virtuous" cycle continues.
The only people buying AD on ZAX are either the whales who do not care and are impatient or the new players who do not know better. How many of either can there possibly be nowadays?
Comments
11/17/203/21/21Just killing time...
Just killing time...
I have to get back to playing this game for now, but good work keeping track of this for those with the investment. I know you are not very serious about it. However this is a very positive and uplifting thread you started for the players here.
Against my religion? No it is against my education of probabilities. I also don't buy lotto tickets to support the school system. As you know, I don't own any children as of yet. I have thought of renting them especially before April 15th.
Just killing time...
November 27th Zen purchase order was delivered this morning, on April 7th (CEST, i will check the exact hours later if you want)
2 others are incoming, posted both on 29th November.
I added Magnus post to the list above. The "Zen Oracle" was off by a day.
Just killing time...
This graph above shows the growth of time from July 25th to November 27th over a period of 4 months. It appears to be rising at roughly 0.6 days per day. That is about 14.5 hours more added to the wait time per day between postings. This can be changed by several factors that have been discussed on the forum many times already. This study, for my part, was to find this baseline calculation for you.
If you will excuse me, I have work and bills to pay. I hope you remembered, today is the last day to file your tax return by mail.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
03/16/2020 04/17/2020
06/09/2020 07/16/2020
08/15/2020 10/15/2020
10/15/2020 01/25/2021
01/25/2021 still pending
Just killing time...
Dead🔪For a daily forecast Dec. 1st to April 30th click here.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
I got mine 25k a week ago, request was made in November, backlog was 60kk or so, maybe someone confirm the exact number.
Dead🔪Co-Guild Leader
Ghost Templars L20
Alliance: Tyrs Paladium
Main: Cleric (Heals|DPS)
Alt: Warlock
See you next weekend!
November 29th 2020 was completed on April 10th 2021
next pending orders i know about (mine or friends of mine) are :
9th december 2020
14th december 2020
15th december 2020
12/9/2020 - 138.8 - 4/26/2021
12/14/2020 - 141.8 - 5/4/2021
12/15/2020 - 142.4 - 5/6/2021
I know you are use to DD/MM/YY and he used MM/DD/YY on his spreadsheet.
PSN Zen AD Exchange - Forecasting Spreadsheet
By the way, we currently get approximatively the same number about the "rising" of the Zax => 0.612 in mine with the last input on 11/29/2020 fulfilled on 10/04/2021.
I'm waiting for the moment when demands "post bonding stones update" in the Zax are starting to be fulfilled as it will surely show a singularity.
The only people buying AD on ZAX are either the whales who do not care and are impatient or the new players who do not know better. How many of either can there possibly be nowadays?