test content
Logo
What is the Arc Client?
Install Arc
lockbox lucky days
thefiresidecat
Member Posts: 4,486 Arc User
I try really hard (although I fail 98 percent of the time ok maybe I'm not trying that hard but I know I should) to save my keys for lucky days. has anyone else noticed this phenomena. there seem to be days where I get way better luck than normal. where a rash of great stuff drops from chests, where you can't seem to miss with trophies dropping from rare hunts. (I just got a legendary tyran and it was after a streak of hunts dropping their trophy in a row. I think I got five of them. I was like man.. today is the day and sure enough I only had two keys and the second was leg tyran. that was an extreme lucky day and I have to admit that I thought my odds were darned good of getting that drop. there are degrees of lucky streaks and this one was notable. I should have ran some dungeons but i was tired. lol.
but anyone else notice this. there are like reverse luck days where NOTHING drops. it's pretty much a good day just to turn off your console. I don't know the mechanics but it seems to be a real thing, at least in my experience.
but anyone else notice this. there are like reverse luck days where NOTHING drops. it's pretty much a good day just to turn off your console. I don't know the mechanics but it seems to be a real thing, at least in my experience.
1
Comments
Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official.
Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
I don't know why some days you have better holding luck than others in this game or negative luck for that matter but I've been observing it for awhile now.
the game theory goes if you have done things that are free but rng based and your results have been bad to boring. save your daily key for another day. if you've had some pretty good rng or excellent rng open those keys maybe buy ten.
Any of my comments not posted in orange are based on my own personal opinion and not official.
Any messages written in orange are official moderation messages. Signature images are now fixed!
Well, two dropped in about 3 CN runs, and I thought, well this is a lucky streak. So I used up my keys to open up the Glorious Resurgence lockboxes (I had about 30 saved up) and sure enough, I got my first Legendary Mount pack.
Anecdotal, but still, that was a lucky day.
But one thing I can say with some certainty is that if there were some coding anomaly creating artificial probability outliers on lock boxes, the devs would have gone without sleep and daylight till it was fixed.
I personally believe it has more to do with periodic overlaps of habitual sine waves causing peaks and troughs in key purchases and lock box opening, and players online generating enough "no" responses to increase the statistical volume of "yes" responses
Every loot table has its own RNG.
Every lockbox has its own RNG.
Probability does not inform absolute predictability, there will always be outliers, both good and bad in any probability outside of 0% and 100%.
(I said it was boring...)
I'm not sure how one faulty central algorithm could affect everything and not go unresolved.
But that would be very sharp practise and should it become known that on any given day the odds on your $100 (or whatever) key bundle could shift without notice there would be a LOT of very pissed off people...
ETA: And I don't believe for one second that this is the case.
On the other end of the spectrum I know players who have 10 characters and run all of them for treasure maps and Fane and yet have not even gotten a +4, forget a +5. And I only run two character and have both the Gravestriker and Shadow Stalker +5. I pulled +5 rings out of content like I'm getting a Blood Ruby from T9, seriously ran two CN and got 3 different +5. I'm like where is my luck with LB. LOL...
I know one player who seems just to be lucky all around. Has pulled multiple Legendary from daily keys, gotten multiple +5 Gravestriker and Shadow Stalkers, and pulls high selling companions out of treasure chest on a regular basis. In less than 24 hours this player generated over 7M AD just from his chest pulls and than he pulls not 1 but 2 legendary from 5 keys. I logged off after that and took a few days away from NWO.
I am tired of seeing some players hold all the luck with Legendary mounts and others holding it with other things like rings. Honestly this game RNG is not real RNG given how often I get +5 rings and how often other players get good drop from treasure chest and others just are able to pull a legendary mount out each month with a daily key.
Also, I've noticed that older legendary rings have been dropping like candy for me lately, after they are no longer relevant...
I did a Fane out of boredom while thinking, "Wouldn't it be great if I got an orange ring?", and when it came out as a +5 Shadowstalker, I thought I would test this 'lockbox lucky days' theory, so opened up some lockboxes with my trove of keys (about 40) and out came ... the Glorious Resurgence Legendary Pack!
Yay! Lucky streak. Last one was about 2 years ago.
So now being several mods later, I am not lucky on days. I'm only lucky with SKT content which is now outdated....go me.