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Preservation Wards and the BS
scrylite
Member Posts: 41 Arc User
OK... I'm completely at a loss as to how the hell you people arrive at your (% chance of success) values. I've complained about this before as have numerous of my guild mates, one of which actually received a private message back regarding the % being completely inaccurate in respect to a standard deviation to which the % is claimed to be. He was told that every attempt is independent of the prior attempts, thus a 5% chance means only that there is a 5% chance with each attempt, however not guaranteed success by the 20th attempt. This reply I have no problem with, as to assume a success by the 20th attempt is to fall victim to the "gambler's fallacy". HOWEVER... what troubles me is that the same reply refused to provide any statement or evidence for how the suggested % chance of success value is arrived at. If you're simply stating the success rate based on the applied formula you are using to calculate the attempt then I must say your formula is wildly inaccurate. If you will not provide or suggest a sample size for your values deviation then how can you be certain your formula is anything other than randomly accurate? I've been playing this game for now over 2 years, and completely understand that everyone has their good days and bad days with luck, but I'm one more failed attempt away from quitting your deceptive game and further more spreading the word and my tabulated data for the last month all over social media. I want to know why in the hell I've failed 187 times on a 5% chance which in the end out of frustration I ended up coal warding. I once again today attempted to level a 5% and already 52 wards are gone and I suppose I'm expected to believe that 239 failed attempts on a 5% chance is within a "REASONABLE deviation" from the suggested success rate? Well I don't believe for even one moment that is within the LARGEST stretches of acceptable. I'd be more willing to reason this out as a FREAK of bad nature, but when you have shown time and time again with each release of new content that you don't even bother to test the absolute SIMPLEST of changes; like whether or not a value can be entered into a box and subtracted from one stored variable then added to a similar corresponding variable ...IE COMPANION TOKENS, then I believe I deserve a damn good explanation along with transparency to support it.
Post edited by scrylite#2377 on
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They only truth is that you have a 5% chance of success and a 95% chance of failure at each attempt.
Short version (might sound blunt and I don't mean to be rude): I'm sorry, there is no point in arguing. Just assume it's always random and move on to spare yourself the stresses of counted failures.
Long version:
Personally, I gave up at those % numbers long long time ago. I could agree or disagree with your data, but being this a game run by a multinational company, there's no point, as everything that is closely related to gambling is and will always be as they want, regardless of your opinion. The only way something could charge, is if the revenue gets negatively affected, but I can't fathom how a single person could cause such effect within an MMO.
What I say to myself is: you're upgrading them only once and they will be used "forever" from now on. I think like that because enchantments aren't like armor or weapons, they last through the mods. They are one of the very few items that "preserve" your effort, sometimes not the totality of it, but a large part of it nonetheless.
There's just 1 catch for me, my main is a powersharer...he uses radiants (single stat enchantment, aka big loss of stats versus 3-stat enchantments) that will become obsolete once they nerf powersharing...and I will have to upgrade a bunch of other multi-stat enchantments from scratch. Fortunately, the defensive slots are black ices and I can't see how those will lose "BiS" tag in the future.
If you have the time and the patience, being the latter most essential, you could copy your main several times to the preview, join together those pres wards and do some testing. There's this site I know about that loves to publish NWO tests results for several items, but I think it's forbidden to talk about it here.
Good luck (you need it!) and have fun
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