Refinement % FAKE....

colombiandude · March 2017

I just spent 110 preservation wards trying to move from a feytouched lesser to a normal feytouched, and I have not succeeded, well, what a scam, which is not little, and here's the cheat; during the refinement process its says there are Only 1% chance to do it, it's fine, unfair but everyone assumes it, but, although each preservation ward spended will represent a 1% chance, then it would be enough to use a maximum of 100 of them to achieve it, but of course no, I just checked this out, so, it is not as it says, that the chance to achieve it is 1%, this is a real scam, and that merits real consequences, so I feel myself cheated for more than 100 reasons and well I will demand minimum an explanation, although I do not have many expectations that it is useful, like that chance of refinement, FALSE, that indicate there ...

micky1p00 · March 2017

Having a chance of 1% doesn't mean you have a maximum of 100 attempts until success.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

And you probably should have used a coalescent ward instead.

zell400 · March 2017

I spent 135 pres wards on 5%chance getting my wheel to mythic... Math just doesn't add up but regardless it finally happened this is the kinda stuff we deal with on neverwinter.

hudman21 · March 2017

From one of micky1p00 links

"Another application of the law of averages is a belief that a sample's behavior must line up with the expected value based on population statistics. For example, suppose a fair coin is flipped 100 times.Using the law of averages, one might predict that there will be 50 heads and 50 tails. While this is the single most likely outcome, there is only an 8% chance of it occurring. "

zell400 · March 2017

I always expect to spend 10x the amount it should of taken. So 1/100 is 1/1000 not the way it is but just helps me not rage

dupeks · March 2017

Another way to look at it: for every time that someone gets a refinement to go much better/faster than expected (so fewer than 20 pres wards on a 5% chance) there's likely someone who had it go much worse/slower than expected (so more than 20 pres wards on a 5% chance).

Folks are pretty likely to complain about having to spend many more wards than they expect, but pretty unlikely to mention when things go very well (I've had 5% chances go right on the first try, multiple times, but I never really announced to anyone).

Various RNG tests conducted by interested players have usually arrived at a similar theme: the % values are accurate over the long run, but some report that results tend to be more streaky than you would expect from a truly random chance. That could just be bias, but anecdotally it syncs up with my personal experience as well. The associated old wives' tale is: if you're having a bad time rolling on a refinement upgrade, stop and go do something else and you'll have better luck when you try again in a few hours.

Unknown · March 2017

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armadeonx · March 2017

colombiandude#2956 said:
I just spent 110 preservation wards trying to move from a feytouched lesser to a normal feytouched, and I have not succeeded, well, what a scam, which is not little, and here's the cheat; during the refinement process its says there are Only 1% chance to do it, it's fine, unfair but everyone assumes it, but, although each preservation ward spended will represent a 1% chance, then it would be enough to use a maximum of 100 of them to achieve it, but of course no, I just checked this out, so, it is not as it says, that the chance to achieve it is 1%, this is a real scam, and that merits real consequences, so I feel myself cheated for more than 100 reasons and well I will demand minimum an explanation, although I do not have many expectations that it is useful, like that chance of refinement, FALSE, that indicate there ...

Yeah it's not a scam, you just don't get how 'chance' works. You ever flipped a coin and got heads 5 times in a row?

I understand it's frustrating but the general rule is you need to use a coal ward for anything with a 1% chance.

bvira · March 2017

"it would be enough to use a maximum of 100 of them to achieve it" is a false statement. That's not how statistics works...

strathkin · March 2017

If someone has a 1% chance it could easily take 175 or more times or you could get lucky and do it within 35. Still they should improve all UPGRADE chances across the board by 33% or 1/3.

While it may seem like a lot, isn't all that much.

Given that getting a Legendary Artifact to Mythic gives a 5% chance so increasing it by 33% means the new chance is only 6.65%. They should also round up any chances about .5 to the next full whole number so 6.65 would be 7%. It may not make a huge difference to the highest quality items or enchantments, but it would help some EPIC artifacts or lower enchantments, and save a few preservation wards or coalescent wards in the process.

Perhaps not a lot but it would save a few.

What blows my mind is when skill nodes having 75% chance, yet somehow manage to fail 3 or 4 times in a row--that shouldn't be something that happens too often at all.

wizardlvl80 · March 2017

I upgraded my Plaguefire to greater with 1 pres ward. Where is your god now?

Guess some people should pay more attention on math lessons.

mousebreaker85 · March 2017

That's like saying if you flip a coin it only takes 2 tries to get tails when in fact you can flip the coin 9,999,999 times and might never be tails.
It is always 50% chance no matter how many flips you attempt.

namelesshero347 · March 2017

The RNG can be really streaky. They really should try to smooth it out better. Many people don't understand statistic well, so they do sense something may be wrong when they repeatedly blow 16-20+ pwards on a 25%. Perception matter here. People stop spending money when they feel like they are getting ripped off

Unknown · March 2017

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namelesshero347 · March 2017

I do believe that in the long run (I've been playing since mod 2 and have been keeping track), the success rates do approach the posted rate. But in the short term, it can feel 4x or more worst or better than the posted rate. When I was doing 3% with pwards, once I did two upgrades with 5 pwards. The last three 3% I did took over 150 pwards each. I use coal wards for 3% now. It's like a casino, the longer you stay, the more likely you are to end up losing more then winning.

qexotic · March 2017

mousebreaker85#4641 said:
That's like saying if you flip a coin it only takes 2 tries to get tails when in fact you can flip the coin 9,999,999 times and might never be tails.

It is always 50% chance no matter how many flips you attempt.

Actually, not true. There is also a chance that the coin will land on its edge and remain upright in that position. I cannot remember the name of the film but Herbert Lom's character demonstrated this exact scenario after offering a 'Heads you win, tails I lose' option to the lead character. He was making an interesting point >:)

namelesshero347 · March 2017

defiantone99 said:
This post reads to me like-I ran out in front of a car and got hit. Everybody knows to use blue wards on 1%.

LOL. I'm so sleepy. I didn't realize the OP was doing 1% with pwards. Those attempts are for hardcore gamblers. The OP doesn't realize that he got lucky it took only 110 wards.

mousebreaker85 · March 2017

RNG or random number generator is a funny thing
For loot it randomly generates a number from say 1-100
1-10 might give a hat of coolness
11-40 might give enchant of crapiness
41-70 you will be proud owner of underwear of protection
71-99 is blade of dullness
And 1% chance if you roll 100 you get the uber cool super sonic crochet shield
With refining upgrades
It generates a number 1-100
1-99 you fail
100 it upgraded
So you can imagine the chances and see why you may never upgrade that enchant
Now imagine things like +5 rings that have .01 percent chance of dropping
That gives you 1 number out of 1000 random numbers to get that item
And then to get the ring you want is another 1 in 42 chance even after hitting the 1 in 1000 chance
You can see why a lot of mmo's scrapped basic RNG system long ago

linaduin · April 2017

Every time that someone complains about this there is a 1% chance that CRYPTIC will do something about it.

fizgigtiznalkie · April 2017

You know those 1 pres wards you get from the vault of piety that don't stack and are pretty much useless? I made a negation enchantment from shards with one of them 1 time just trying to burn it as I had an accident once where I used 1 twice in a row and burned a rank 9 radiant and 2 gmops, so now if I get to single digits on pres wards I add more.

Refinement % FAKE....

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