the ADX is falling! the ADX is falling. (psa)

thefiresidecat · March 2017

it appears to be falling rather quickly. the sell side is at 287-289. last time something big happened it dropped 60 points. dunno if it's going to fall that far. it used to rise over these events but last couple times I've seen drops instead. (it might have been going on far longer but I'd been on the ps4 for a number of months instead of xbox) if a big sale is going on at the same time the bigger the fall.

anyhoo. if you have zen tied up at a larger amount you might want to think about getting out of it until it stabilizes. (but I take zero accountability if it turns tomorrow and I'm wrong... at this MOMENT and for the last week it's been in a slow fall. going a little faster over the last 48 hours)

neverburnaclown · March 2017

Someone is playing it. There is a stack at 300. Like a large stack, as if someone wants to prevent it from going high on double.

I'm half in zen half in ad so no big deal but i am amused at what appears to be a coordinated effort to tank it. Maybe we'll get back to the 180 adx days.

Not gonna happen though.

sundance777 · March 2017

Probably a shift in supply or demand from some recent change in player eligibility to participate in the game

omegarealities · March 2017

I'm not concerned. It has been a lot lower and a whole lot higher. When I first started it was in the 170s and I have seen it in the high 400s.

dmcewen · March 2017

Maybe they will give us a 2x AD for the 2 year Xbox anniversary

thegravelnome · March 2017

I think it is because of the Siege event. People are switching from zen to ad at a high rate to get salvagers or Quartermasters enchantments. Just my 2 cents

thefiresidecat · March 2017

the same thing used to happen though and it would rise. I'm sure it has to do with some kind of shift of the player base I'm just not sure which way. it would be interesting to see the numbers. this sort of thing is fascinating.

I bought in at 377 before christmas thinking it would go up a bit. it fell to like 311 lol. never came back.

neverburnaclown · March 2017

Its rising now, low of 282 about 30 minutes ago, now is at 291 and not a lot of zen on the market.

I'm seeing chunks go up and go real quick too as it climbs

missdayum · March 2017

I'm pretty sure it goes back up on Saturday the latest. Yes no maybe so? >:)

sh00termcl0vin · March 2017

Double refinement. Nuff said.

mightyeriksson · March 2017

Double RP always drop the ADX, people need AD more than Zen during that, so yeah, enjoy it while it lasts...

neverburnaclown · March 2017

Heck works for me i needed the pres wards. Lots and lots of pres wards were murdered on this day.

thefiresidecat · March 2017

naw it used to make it go up. once upon a time. wayyyyy up

reefriednunt · March 2017

I agree it used to go way up to

kreatyve · March 2017

I think it's due to other things that are inappropriate to discuss here.

spoomeister · March 2017

Thanks for the heads-up folks, I hadn't looked in on it for a while. Created my first alt the other day and was considering some packs from zen market to move him along quickly; if the adx price has tanked maybe I should shovel spare AD into some extra zen...

thefiresidecat · March 2017

it's been floating between 273 and 286

thefiresidecat · March 2017

omegarealities#7219 said:
I'm not concerned. It has been a lot lower and a whole lot higher. When I first started it was in the 170s and I have seen it in the high 400s.

that's not the point

the point of this is for people HOLDING zen they bought at a higher price. it was a warning to sell before they lose a ton. I personally welcome falling prices... as long as i'm not holding...

kinganuthin · March 2017

I think it went down instead of up this time because people once needed lots of Pward and Cward, now its SMoP...

thefiresidecat · March 2017

oh no kidding. the need is real. lol. I have some enchants from the last 2x that were fully packed with rp but sitting because no smops. lol.

armadeonx · March 2017

Personally I love it when zen is cheap. I don't trade for profit and only get zen from AD so for me it's a chance to buy thing's I'd otherwise have to save for, such as packs, coal wards, mounts...

The best time for me was when it was around 150

cscriv79 · March 2017

No point panic selling your Zen, just hold onto it until the exchange goes back up, it always does.

I do not think devs will let it go as low as 100 back in mod5/6 lol

thefiresidecat · March 2017

armadeonx said:
Personally I love it when zen is cheap. I don't trade for profit and only get zen from AD so for me it's a chance to buy thing's I'd otherwise have to save for, such as packs, coal wards, mounts...

The best time for me was when it was around 150

don't you remember when it was at 110-116 for a couple months? it was nov-jan 2015 2016. those were some good times.. I'd LOVE for it to go that far down again

thefiresidecat · March 2017

cscriv79 said:
No point panic selling your Zen, just hold onto it until the exchange goes back up, it always does.

I do not think devs will let it go as low as 100 back in mod5/6 lol

naw, I did that for awhile. I held for a month and a half and then was like this is stoopid (and it STILL hasn't gone back even close to the high where I bought in and that was like three months ago now) in that time I could have been flipping it and making my money back. so I just sold out and started flipping it again.

mordekai · March 2017

Double RP.
Refinement is worth double, so more people will want to buy it. Stuff like Thaum stones and Res stones don't come on Zen market so people need to trade Zen for AD.
This means the value of AD goes up.
This means the cost of Zen goes down.

The ADX still shows about the same volume of Zen, with sold zen being replaced far quicker than usual. Which, unless some people have been stockpiling zen just to sell really cheap, suggests that more is being bought.

Due to the cost of final refinement marks, it will probably stay sub 300 for a week or so, then if it plateaus below 250-260 we might get double AD, but if it goes back up to c300 it will be fine.

This happened last time double RP came on its own and not part of a mega bundle of events. I made almost as much from trading zen over that event than I did in the last double AD. If I'd held out instead of selling at 3.6 I would have been able to almost double my investment. As it was, I had to make do with a 60% profit.

thefiresidecat · March 2017

in the past that would make the market rise. I'm guessing kreatyve might be on to something with that which must not be named.

mordekai · March 2017

I can't understand how it could send the AD cost of Zen up.
When zen buyers want AD, the value of AD should rise, so the cost for 1000 z would drop.
When AD earners want Zen, the opposite should happen.

So when AD floods the market, following a big double AD event, or the (short lived drop rate increase) you should see zen selling for more, but with a double RP event the cost of zen should drop because AD becomes a stronger currency.

Double RP equates to cash rich players as "half price RP" so as long as zen stays above 50% of what it was, everybody wins.
AD sellers get more zen, zen buyers get more RP, and PWE/Arc get increased zen sales.

I know that common sense isn't that... common... with regard trade on NW, but market forces on a two currency exchange is a fairly simple economic model. As one goes up the other goes down in line with supply and demand.

There's also the bonus that a large number of players are pretty thick when it comes to commerce, and will panic if their RP lots on the AH don't sell in 10 minutes, then they drop the price, so when you would think the cost would go up, its often easy to find bargain price RP on the AH.

Unknown · March 2017

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thefiresidecat · March 2017

it depends on which there is more of. zen or ad. not just which is in more demand. coalwards and pressies are also extremely in demand. it's far more complex than you guys are giving it credit for. I've been watching the market rise and fall for nearly two years now. my husband is an active stock market trader. i've had him look over my shoulder a few times. he's convinced it's tied to actual market activities. lol. (just an aside) but, in the early days it would always rise when there was a big rp event. by 100 to 150 points. then there was the great depression in game. and prices fell to extreme lows. (and times were good) that lasted for a few months. then they announced coal gate and everyone boycotted the game. people honestly were giving away all their stuff before leaving. the price of the ad skyrocketed. (short supply of zen) and it's pretty much stayed there ever since. I kind of think these events bring more people into the game and since they've been gone awhile they buy zen adding more zen to the market thus lowering the price.

I think they've just zoinked off the populace enough that no one will buy zen anymore for the most part. (as a vast whole, not individuals here and there of course)

mordekai · March 2017

I agree that there are more complexities at work here, and I've also done my fair share of shall we say "market study" in the real world.
The fact that wards are being discounted, along with the double rp sees both sides of the exchange dealing. Watching the ZenEx you see that the amount on there tends to remain within a normal volume, but its being sold and replaced at a faster rate than normal.

What you often see is artificial plateaus being created by Zen vendors dumping a large amount at 1ad below the current, hoping to sell all in one go, but if they don't sell quickly smaller amounts start to build at the next price down, and so on.
What I've noticed tĥis weekend is that it dropped quickly and has hovered around the 276-277 range with a few peaks and troughs throughout. (someone just dumped 5000 at 274 when the current was 277. Go figure...)

One of the things that will determine the exchange rate going forward is how quickly all the millions of AD that have been spent on the AH get watered down by the 10% levy. If they get used up slower than new AD comes in expect a slow recovery. If there is a substantial increase, say, through a double AD event, the price of Zen will rise and as long as the cash rich guys have something worth buying with AD, that will continue whilever the amount of AD is relatively higher than that of zen.

I think that there are still plenty of people buying Zen, that's evident from how much is moving through the ZenEx, unless like I said before people have been stockpiling it to sell at a lower price than they paid. Though frankly, given how dumb the populace of Faerun seem to be when it comes to finance... nothing would surprise me.

thefiresidecat · March 2017

you aren't accounting for the fact that neverwinter DOES at times pepper the market with zen. not all the zen you see is actual people out there with actual zen buying things. they do still exert some control over the market. I also don't think the ten percent levy as you call it matters very much. that's only in the ah that it matters. and there is another force at play which must not be mentioned which is pretty huge. lol.

seriously. it has always been there and it used to be far worse before vip was a thing and it still used to rise during these events. by 100 to 150 points. it NEVER sank.. never ever ever would it sink. and the desires were the same then as they are now. it was in the days when a lot more players were playing on xbox. it's kind of a ghost town compared to the heyday here. a lot more people come play during these events than during normal times. that's why it's gotten so laggy since 2x rp.

also a lot of people and I do mean a lot are opening tons of boxes this weekend. the amount of orange notifications are staggering.

the ADX is falling! the ADX is falling. (psa)

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