'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
I just saw that, do DO packs on exchange of those types still drop the promotional items thi sweekend? will they be cheaper than the zen bought 20% off packs?
The funny thing about the lockbox advice thing is that rational self-interest is always in advising other people to do the opposite of what you're doing yourself. Someone who wants to sell boxes and buy ships would want others to buy the boxes, open them and sell the contents. On the other hand someone who wants to buy boxes and sell the contents would want others to sell boxes for them to open and buy the contents.
The funny thing about the lockbox advice thing is that rational self-interest is always in advising other people to do the opposite of what you're doing yourself. Someone who wants to sell boxes and buy ships would want others to buy the boxes, open them and sell the contents. On the other hand someone who wants to buy boxes and sell the contents would want others to sell boxes for them to open and buy the contents.
Some of us give good advice (sell packs buy ships for EC) even if it's against our strict self-interest (since I also sell packs, it lowers my EC gained).
The warm glow of knowing you've helped someone has its own value.
I donate to charities even though I get nothing in return. (Saving 30% on my marginal income tax still means I've lost 70%.)
Guys.. I think I've more than reasonably demonstrated I'm well aware of all ways around this issue. These replies are therefore a little disingeuous, don't you think?
I can only speak concretely from my own experience and relate factors that pertain to that experience. Because I know what they are. There's no way to know what others are doing, or how they're going about doing it. Also for every argument offered to my last post, the obvious throwbacks are there too. I purposefully avoided contending them in that post for that reason. I don't really want to get bogged down in a "same goes" TRIBBLE-for-tat.
Lastly, I realise some people are just dead-set against these systems and I genuinely empathise. However, I'm also going to point out that the alternatives are just as readily subverted; by those that either knowingly, or unwittingly, fail to recognise those alternatives on offer are just as (comparitively) expensive if not more so. -- it's to protect people. Either from themselves, or those that design to take advantage of them; that's why I counsel "exercise moderation".
As for how to gear up, set prices and target towards different levels of players, so that everyone benifits; I actually have much to convey. In an entirely different discussion. However, I'm never going to condone, that one persons lack of restraint, should be passed onto another under the guise of "a guarantee" and that, that's ok.
That Promotion Ship Pack will have the same ship choices from either source. HOWEVER, I suggest you right click on an Promotion Pack on the Exchange to ensure it is not one of the very older, single or so ship selection Packs. Ferengi have been known to try and sell those off as the bigger selection choice packs.
R&D Promotion Packs are 300 Zen each or 250 Zen when bought in the Bundle. With a 20% Discount on the 1,000 Zen Bundle they are 200 Zen each (240 individually). Now, the Duty Officer Packs that are involved in the Promotion are 275 Zen each. A 20% discount on that would make them 220 Zen each. There are no Bundles.
The thing about Promotion R&D Packs is that the R&D Mat Pack contents are considered less useful than the Duty Officer Pack contents.
Note that the cheap (200 Zen) Klingon and Federation Duty Officer Packs are not part of the Promotion.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
You are incottect. My method costs me no money whatsoever and I get any ship I want. It is not "just as comparitively expensive" it costs me nothing, not even time because I'm playing anyway so that time was already spent on STO. I play for a few hours a day, avarage of about 3. It is a guaranteed method, nothing anyone else can do will do anything to stop me. Price fluctuations at any stage may slow me down, but thats it.
We've established all that. Lol! Ok, lets do it this way..
How long do you think it would take someone, that's just gotten into the game, to raise 2bil EC? -- The no bsa answer please.
The first step in actually helping someone, is to actually "listen" to the question. Not just read the text. No ones disputing that the system works. The dispute is in claiming that 'opening the packs is actually bad advice' and that is neither true, nor my experience.
I opened 20 (5x 4pacs) over the course of the R&D w/e and that got me a D7 and a Kelvin Dreadnought. Having also completed my 50:100 quota (due to increased trade activity R&D w/e's bring) that net me another t6 & t5 pack. -- Having (obviously) used a tonne of resources built up to get the best out of the event; I actually (still) came out in a net better position than when I began. As per the advice of very established players.
So, as you can see. When I state that "opening 84 packs is likely to net you multiple t6 packs". I'm not just whistling dixie. -- However, 84 packs (if outright purchased @800z) is 16,800z (or US$160 rounded up). That's the reality, and that's why I say 2bil EC *is* "scalping" because the fiscal math says it is.
Okay now you are just lying. First of all, these ships sell in the 1.1 to 1.3 billion range. And the chance of you getting even ONE promo pack in 84 packs is JUST shy of the likely vs unlikely side at around 58%. Chances you get two in those boxes is MUCH less likely than not with you being blessed by RNGessus...and that is assuming we are being generous here and stop at two. More than that and we are looking at you ARE RNGessus levels of luck. Note that even at 100 boxes, you are looking at over a 1 in 3 odds of not getting the ship. So...yeah...no. You are just wrong. Please stop spreading misinformation.
O'rly? Lol! Do tell 😂
I'm only talking about what's been asserted in the thread, perhaps you should read through it, before just saying stuff.
A brand new player, F2P, investing a modest sum to unlock EC cap and some character slots, say 40 dollars/4,000 Zen, and creating a base 10 characters, can refine 80,000 Dilithium per day. Factor a week or so to get them to level 50 where Dill falls from the sky, and in 10 days that is 800,000 Dill, in 30 days thats 2,400,000 Dill. The exact time to produce the actual price for a Promo ship (between 1 & 1.5 billion EC, not 2 billion) is not a constant, the variables in rates on the Dillex and Exchange are always in flux. I have personally produced over a million Dill in a one week period and spent nearly a billion EC on a Husnack, & Crossfield, and made enough additional Dill to convert to 4,000 Zen to buy a 2 ship pack, in just under a month and a half. I did this without even making max refine on all of my 21 characters.
Way back when Lockboxes first came to STO, back when T5 was the top ship tier, I spent over 200 dollars on keys to get my first Galor. Sometime later during a Lockbox rerun (pre-Infinity Box thing) I spent hundreds more to get a second Galor. Over the next several years I spent more money getting various other ships before I finally learned to convert Dill to zen and then to EC, and it was the information and help of people like Cold, Sea, Mark, and the fine folks of NoP that helped me learn.
I get all that. Worked that out just by playing.
Lol! Myself, I've got only 3 characters and the uptime on my account is just 33days. 😂
I mean, it's not like I can't go through the effort of posting screenies to prove all this. It's just that, what do I get out of going through the effort just to prove you guys wrong? -- not much really huh.. and given some are already pre-disposed to calling others 'a liar' when challenged (because ya can get away with doing that online..). It's lose-lose huh?
> @tc1701a said: > Hi all, > > ok returning player... I love TOS and I need some advice about trying to acquire these 2 ships. I see the special requisition packs for sale in exchange for billions of credits? I certainly don't have that much at the moment. > > So, in your opinion will they be back at some point? should I wait until they are back in current packs and see if I can get them then from exchange or packs? or should i sell things to start saving and grinding, because that is the typical price? > > what is the most efficient way? > > thanks!
> @seaofsorrows said: > You just buy the packs and open them, no keys required. > > Again though, this is only during the event. Normal R&D Packs won't work.
> @seaofsorrows said: > tc1701a wrote: » > > Definitely giving me some things to think about all, thanks for all of your input! > > just for curiosities sake anyone remember or have any idea off the top how much 84 promo packs would cost in zen? > > > > > The R&D packs come in 4 packs for a normal price of 1000 Zen. > > To get 84 Boxes, you would have to buy 21 of the 4 packs which would be a total of 21000 Zen or $210. > > Lets say the boxes sell on the exchange for an average of $14M each. Selling all 84 boxes would get you 1.17 Billion EC. > > The current prices on the ship is 1.2B EC, so you would need maybe one or two more packs and that would give you a 100% chance of getting the ship. > > Now, it's also possible that you could buy a single pack for $3, open it and get the ship. The odds are against it, but it's possible. The guaranteed method isn't cheap, but it's guaranteed. > > That method also assumes you're starting with Zero EC. The more EC you have once the promo starts, the less boxes you have to buy and the less you have to spend. I spent $20 to get mine and it was just because I wanted it that day. The key is to save up between promotions so that you don't have to start from zero, that's way too expensive.
The whole question in prospective is moot when you think about it, it is paying vs non paying. IF you are a paying player then you should do X as opposed to if you are a non payer then you should do Y.
You guys skipping over some minute details here and just assumed all people in this game are good faith actors.
Everyone that buys the promo packs off the market aren't all bright eyed and bushy tailed players. Some are hard core companies that purchase the packs to make bucket loads off the ships. Some sale for up to 200.00 300.00 usd and if they use the tried and true methods placed here they are making pure profit off the game. Just adding that to dilute the argument of buyers vs sellers. So don't assume all those players getting the tokens are real players and not companies.
Now as many players pointed out the best method to insure you will get it is to raise the EC and pay the 1B. Is there a chance you will get it if you open 100+ packs. Maybe. But it's not solid. It's a liquid stance. It could happen it could not. So many players specially the hard core solid stance subscribers have tried the liquid stance and have been burned after losing a ton of zen and dil So it's not as if there is a right or wrong way there simply is a solid and probable stance. They are just putting their experience her and guiding players away from their desire to have a quick victory only to get tko'd in the first round.
Now there are plenty of ways to raise 1B credits. Specially now with the promotional infinity duty officer packs. They sale for 15M each. So you simple multiply that by the amount you need. Go with a round number like 100 for 1.3-1.5 1.6-7b give or take. so how many packs do you need for 100. if it's 220 then multiply that by 100 which is 22000 zen so aound 200.00 usd give or take or 9 million dil or what ever. Now chances are you will actually spend all that on the ship is slim since a lot of players sale it or the token for way less but its advertise only. So around 1B 1.1B leaving you with 200-300-400M left over allowing you to take in more impressive skills to make the ships more impressive like scramble fighters and what not.
now if you open all those delta alliance packs you need to be really lucky and you might get the token.... or you need like 10 scramble fighters or what have you or a lot of really good purples to sale to make those numbers.
So as you can see, it's simply a product of luck or statistics. One method may get you it hell it may make you rich unbelievably so... but it may not well more then likely will not.... more like 1 in 10000 chances so yeah not is more likely and the other Will get you the ship and will improve your account and will make you better just takes more self restraint and patience.
Though i am one to talk.... i have on my account billions so I simply wait for nice things to come, buy them first use them then discard them when they become useless. All for the process to start over. I use well used to use both methods so to me either one is fine. just one, the slow and steady method is just superior. Especially for f2p players.
@paladinrja#5247 , your account has only been active 33 days, and you're trying to tell the experts how things work? You've had a chance to experience, what?, 1 maybe 2 promos in that time? You may have gotten lucky and RNGesus has been kind to you, but your singular anecdotal experience over the course of 33 days cannot trump the mathematically tested results of dozens of players over the course of the nearly 10 years of the game. At best you are misguided. At worst you are intentionally causing discontent in this thread. Either way, I suggest that you desist.
Star Trek Online Volunteer Community Moderator and Resident She-Wolf
Community Moderators are Unpaid Volunteers and NOT Employees of Gearbox/Cryptic
Views and Opinions May Not Reflect the Views and Opinions of Gearbox/Cryptic
Lol! Myself, I've got only 3 characters and the uptime on my account is just 33days. 😂
I mean, it's not like I can't go through the effort of posting screenies to prove all this. It's just that, what do I get out of going through the effort just to prove you guys wrong? -- not much really huh.. and given some are already pre-disposed to calling others 'a liar' when challenged (because ya can get away with doing that online..). It's lose-lose huh?
I am going to say this once as nicely as I can.
I believe your intent is genuine, and that you believe you're helping with the things you're posting. I choose to assume the best in people, I am doing that with you. I am telling you though, there is a reason why we are posting the advice we are posting and that's because we have been through this so many times and we know how this works.
During our combined years in this game and on this forum, we have seen countless players lose hundreds and yes.. even thousands of dollars trying to win ships. We're not here to debate the ethics of this practice or to assign blame, we're here to help people avoid these mistakes themselves. You are new.. you just got here and you already think you're an expert.
You're not.
And continuing to act like one and trying to tell people that have been doing this for years how things work is only going to get you hostile replies. Simply put, we are trying to help people.. we are trying to get them what they want and getting it as quickly and as cheaply as possible. The chances of getting 2 T6 Promo's in 86 packs is about the equivalent to winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning and being saved by a unicorn. If that happened to you, then great.. congratulations.. really. But to come here and pass that off as the 'norm' based on your one single experience is irresponsible and dangerous.
We will not let you pass bad advice to players.. full stop. Congratulations on the luck that you have had, that's great.. but when you start telling people that those are the results you can expect, that advice becomes potentially detrimental and we simply will not allow you to pass this on to players that are here to get help.
The only thing I can add and probably mentioned before, from my personal perspective, it would seem to me that it may be easier getting the T6 Ship Pack from an R&D or Duty Officer Promotion Pack than from a Lockbox.
Since the Promotion Infinity first premiered I have gotten six T6 Promotion Selection Boxes, vs. one Lockbox T6 Box, selection or specific ship.
All of the caveats above are spot on even though YMMV.
Addendun: The Epic or UR Phoenix Tokens have the worst odds in all this mess.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
The chances of getting 2 T6 Promo's in 86 packs is about the equivalent to winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning and being saved by a unicorn.
It's not quite that rare. Going by the generally accepted 1% drop rate, there's about a 21% chance of getting at least two hits in 86 tries.
Not the norm, true. But hardly a lottery win either.
The chances of getting 2 T6 Promo's in 86 packs is about the equivalent to winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning and being saved by a unicorn.
It's not quite that rare. Going by the generally accepted 1% drop rate, there's about a 21% chance of getting at least two hits in 86 tries.
Not the norm, true. But hardly a lottery win either.
Yeah, I was making a poor attempt at humor, but thanks for posting the exact odds.
It's made to sound like it's all but guaranteed that you can win 2 ships in 84 packs, obviously that's not the case as you have illustrated.
Addendun: The Epic or UR Phoenix Tokens have the worst odds in all this mess.
Yeah, those odds are shockingly bad. I was always happy I didn't need any Epic Phoenix Tokens because the drop rates are just awful.
If you must gamble, and you understand the odds and are willing to take the risk, then absolutely go R&D Promo over Lockboxes. If that's what you want to do, then by all means do it.. but make sure you go in with eyes wide open and understand that it's very possible that you will come away empty handed.
Going by the generally accepted 1% drop rate, there's about a 21% chance of getting at least two hits in 86 tries.
That is absolutely not how it works. Just using the 1% figure for the sake of argument, you have a 1% chance on each individual box. Those odds do not stack or increase the more boxes you open. Your odds of getting the ship will always be 1% whether opening your first box or your 100th box.
Going by the generally accepted 1% drop rate, there's about a 21% chance of getting at least two hits in 86 tries.
That is absolutely not how it works. Just using the 1% figure for the sake of argument, you have a 1% chance on each individual box. Those odds do not stack or increase the more boxes you open. Your odds of getting the ship will always be 1% whether opening your first box or your 100th box.
Not if you consider a group of N boxes / packs before you start to open them.
The probability of getting NO ships is dependent and can be thought of as N rolls of a d100 where none scored the 100. Each one separately has a probability of 0.99, but for N (again before you start) the probability of no ship is (.99)*(.99)*(.99)... N times, or using x^y on a calculator it's (.99)^N.
With 40 unopened packs, the probability is 0.6689 that you will get 0 ships, so 33% that you will get one or more.
You're correct of course that if you've already opened 39, the last one has only a 1% chance because each pack is a separate roll of the die and probability has no memory.
Going by the generally accepted 1% drop rate, there's about a 21% chance of getting at least two hits in 86 tries.
That is absolutely not how it works. Just using the 1% figure for the sake of argument, you have a 1% chance on each individual box. Those odds do not stack or increase the more boxes you open. Your odds of getting the ship will always be 1% whether opening your first box or your 100th box.
That's the combined probability of getting 2+ ships out of 86 boxes.
Do not listen to anyone that tells you to open packs to get the ship.. that is horrible advice and they're leading you toward nothing but heartbreak.
If you're going to spend money, wait until they rerun the infinity promo (and they absolutely will) and buy the Infinity RnD Packs to sell for EC. Then just buy the ship with EC. In the meantime, do your daily grind and do what you can to raise as much EC as you can before the promotion starts again.
Never, ever open packs to try and win a ship.. only open packs if you actually need what's in them and consider the ship a bonus.
which is why I opened 16 boxes and got 2 of them. it's simple luck and statistics.
OP just remember that they are not account unlocks so if you REALLY want them, make sure you know which toons you will put them on.
I don't give a TRIBBLE what you got from what.. it's bad advice telling people to open boxes for ships. For everyone who was lucky, there are 100 players that spent a ton of money and came away empty handed.
At least the second part of your post had some value.
Agree, thou i did open some boxes, and got 3 ships in separate promotions, i only buy them for the lobi, i have terrible luck with lobi, so 10 each is good for me, instead of 4-5 i get from the lockboxes... is always better to buy them from the exchange, you just need patience
Do not listen to anyone that tells you to open packs to get the ship.. that is horrible advice and they're leading you toward nothing but heartbreak.
If you're going to spend money, wait until they rerun the infinity promo (and they absolutely will) and buy the Infinity RnD Packs to sell for EC. Then just buy the ship with EC. In the meantime, do your daily grind and do what you can to raise as much EC as you can before the promotion starts again.
Never, ever open packs to try and win a ship.. only open packs if you actually need what's in them and consider the ship a bonus.
If no-one opens boxes there are no ships to buy on the exchange.
Remember us poor console buggers who need to win the Pheonix lottery just to get the Vorgon carrier...never even hit an event for us. Winning one of those just to complete a set for each character...ugh, not happening.
All of these prize packs need to be looked at objectively before you buy anything. Assume the worst...you won't get what you want from opening them...and plan for how to get what you do want.
Comments
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
I just saw that, do DO packs on exchange of those types still drop the promotional items thi sweekend? will they be cheaper than the zen bought 20% off packs?
Some of us give good advice (sell packs buy ships for EC) even if it's against our strict self-interest (since I also sell packs, it lowers my EC gained).
The warm glow of knowing you've helped someone has its own value.
I donate to charities even though I get nothing in return. (Saving 30% on my marginal income tax still means I've lost 70%.)
I can only speak concretely from my own experience and relate factors that pertain to that experience. Because I know what they are. There's no way to know what others are doing, or how they're going about doing it. Also for every argument offered to my last post, the obvious throwbacks are there too. I purposefully avoided contending them in that post for that reason. I don't really want to get bogged down in a "same goes" TRIBBLE-for-tat.
Lastly, I realise some people are just dead-set against these systems and I genuinely empathise. However, I'm also going to point out that the alternatives are just as readily subverted; by those that either knowingly, or unwittingly, fail to recognise those alternatives on offer are just as (comparitively) expensive if not more so. -- it's to protect people. Either from themselves, or those that design to take advantage of them; that's why I counsel "exercise moderation".
As for how to gear up, set prices and target towards different levels of players, so that everyone benifits; I actually have much to convey. In an entirely different discussion. However, I'm never going to condone, that one persons lack of restraint, should be passed onto another under the guise of "a guarantee" and that, that's ok.
> ltminns wrote: »
>
> This Weekend the Super Special T6 Selection Pack Promotion©®™ is dropping out of Duty Officer Packs instead.
>
>
>
>
> I just saw that, do DO packs on exchange of those types still drop the promotional items thi sweekend? will they be cheaper than the zen bought 20% off packs?
That Promotion Ship Pack will have the same ship choices from either source. HOWEVER, I suggest you right click on an Promotion Pack on the Exchange to ensure it is not one of the very older, single or so ship selection Packs. Ferengi have been known to try and sell those off as the bigger selection choice packs.
R&D Promotion Packs are 300 Zen each or 250 Zen when bought in the Bundle. With a 20% Discount on the 1,000 Zen Bundle they are 200 Zen each (240 individually). Now, the Duty Officer Packs that are involved in the Promotion are 275 Zen each. A 20% discount on that would make them 220 Zen each. There are no Bundles.
The thing about Promotion R&D Packs is that the R&D Mat Pack contents are considered less useful than the Duty Officer Pack contents.
Note that the cheap (200 Zen) Klingon and Federation Duty Officer Packs are not part of the Promotion.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
By "whom" may I ask? -- To new &/or returning players, they are invaluable, depending on ones position in the game before hiatus as the latter.
We've established all that. Lol! Ok, lets do it this way..
How long do you think it would take someone, that's just gotten into the game, to raise 2bil EC? -- The no bsa answer please.
The first step in actually helping someone, is to actually "listen" to the question. Not just read the text. No ones disputing that the system works. The dispute is in claiming that 'opening the packs is actually bad advice' and that is neither true, nor my experience.
I opened 20 (5x 4pacs) over the course of the R&D w/e and that got me a D7 and a Kelvin Dreadnought. Having also completed my 50:100 quota (due to increased trade activity R&D w/e's bring) that net me another t6 & t5 pack. -- Having (obviously) used a tonne of resources built up to get the best out of the event; I actually (still) came out in a net better position than when I began. As per the advice of very established players.
So, as you can see. When I state that "opening 84 packs is likely to net you multiple t6 packs". I'm not just whistling dixie. -- However, 84 packs (if outright purchased @800z) is 16,800z (or US$160 rounded up). That's the reality, and that's why I say 2bil EC *is* "scalping" because the fiscal math says it is.
I'm only talking about what's been asserted in the thread, perhaps you should read through it, before just saying stuff.
Lol! Myself, I've got only 3 characters and the uptime on my account is just 33days. 😂
I mean, it's not like I can't go through the effort of posting screenies to prove all this. It's just that, what do I get out of going through the effort just to prove you guys wrong? -- not much really huh.. and given some are already pre-disposed to calling others 'a liar' when challenged (because ya can get away with doing that online..). It's lose-lose huh?
> Hi all,
>
> ok returning player... I love TOS and I need some advice about trying to acquire these 2 ships. I see the special requisition packs for sale in exchange for billions of credits? I certainly don't have that much at the moment.
>
> So, in your opinion will they be back at some point? should I wait until they are back in current packs and see if I can get them then from exchange or packs? or should i sell things to start saving and grinding, because that is the typical price?
>
> what is the most efficient way?
>
> thanks!
> @seaofsorrows said:
> You just buy the packs and open them, no keys required.
>
> Again though, this is only during the event. Normal R&D Packs won't work.
> @seaofsorrows said:
> tc1701a wrote: »
>
> Definitely giving me some things to think about all, thanks for all of your input!
>
> just for curiosities sake anyone remember or have any idea off the top how much 84 promo packs would cost in zen?
>
>
>
>
> The R&D packs come in 4 packs for a normal price of 1000 Zen.
>
> To get 84 Boxes, you would have to buy 21 of the 4 packs which would be a total of 21000 Zen or $210.
>
> Lets say the boxes sell on the exchange for an average of $14M each. Selling all 84 boxes would get you 1.17 Billion EC.
>
> The current prices on the ship is 1.2B EC, so you would need maybe one or two more packs and that would give you a 100% chance of getting the ship.
>
> Now, it's also possible that you could buy a single pack for $3, open it and get the ship. The odds are against it, but it's possible. The guaranteed method isn't cheap, but it's guaranteed.
>
> That method also assumes you're starting with Zero EC. The more EC you have once the promo starts, the less boxes you have to buy and the less you have to spend. I spent $20 to get mine and it was just because I wanted it that day. The key is to save up between promotions so that you don't have to start from zero, that's way too expensive.
You guys skipping over some minute details here and just assumed all people in this game are good faith actors.
Everyone that buys the promo packs off the market aren't all bright eyed and bushy tailed players. Some are hard core companies that purchase the packs to make bucket loads off the ships. Some sale for up to 200.00 300.00 usd and if they use the tried and true methods placed here they are making pure profit off the game. Just adding that to dilute the argument of buyers vs sellers. So don't assume all those players getting the tokens are real players and not companies.
Now as many players pointed out the best method to insure you will get it is to raise the EC and pay the 1B. Is there a chance you will get it if you open 100+ packs. Maybe. But it's not solid. It's a liquid stance. It could happen it could not. So many players specially the hard core solid stance subscribers have tried the liquid stance and have been burned after losing a ton of zen and dil So it's not as if there is a right or wrong way there simply is a solid and probable stance. They are just putting their experience her and guiding players away from their desire to have a quick victory only to get tko'd in the first round.
Now there are plenty of ways to raise 1B credits. Specially now with the promotional infinity duty officer packs. They sale for 15M each. So you simple multiply that by the amount you need. Go with a round number like 100 for 1.3-1.5 1.6-7b give or take. so how many packs do you need for 100. if it's 220 then multiply that by 100 which is 22000 zen so aound 200.00 usd give or take or 9 million dil or what ever. Now chances are you will actually spend all that on the ship is slim since a lot of players sale it or the token for way less but its advertise only. So around 1B 1.1B leaving you with 200-300-400M left over allowing you to take in more impressive skills to make the ships more impressive like scramble fighters and what not.
now if you open all those delta alliance packs you need to be really lucky and you might get the token.... or you need like 10 scramble fighters or what have you or a lot of really good purples to sale to make those numbers.
So as you can see, it's simply a product of luck or statistics. One method may get you it hell it may make you rich unbelievably so... but it may not well more then likely will not.... more like 1 in 10000 chances so yeah not is more likely and the other Will get you the ship and will improve your account and will make you better just takes more self restraint and patience.
Though i am one to talk.... i have on my account billions so I simply wait for nice things to come, buy them first use them then discard them when they become useless. All for the process to start over. I use well used to use both methods so to me either one is fine. just one, the slow and steady method is just superior. Especially for f2p players.
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I am going to say this once as nicely as I can.
I believe your intent is genuine, and that you believe you're helping with the things you're posting. I choose to assume the best in people, I am doing that with you. I am telling you though, there is a reason why we are posting the advice we are posting and that's because we have been through this so many times and we know how this works.
During our combined years in this game and on this forum, we have seen countless players lose hundreds and yes.. even thousands of dollars trying to win ships. We're not here to debate the ethics of this practice or to assign blame, we're here to help people avoid these mistakes themselves. You are new.. you just got here and you already think you're an expert.
You're not.
And continuing to act like one and trying to tell people that have been doing this for years how things work is only going to get you hostile replies. Simply put, we are trying to help people.. we are trying to get them what they want and getting it as quickly and as cheaply as possible. The chances of getting 2 T6 Promo's in 86 packs is about the equivalent to winning the lottery while getting hit by lightning and being saved by a unicorn. If that happened to you, then great.. congratulations.. really. But to come here and pass that off as the 'norm' based on your one single experience is irresponsible and dangerous.
We will not let you pass bad advice to players.. full stop. Congratulations on the luck that you have had, that's great.. but when you start telling people that those are the results you can expect, that advice becomes potentially detrimental and we simply will not allow you to pass this on to players that are here to get help.
One time nicely.. please stop.
Since the Promotion Infinity first premiered I have gotten six T6 Promotion Selection Boxes, vs. one Lockbox T6 Box, selection or specific ship.
All of the caveats above are spot on even though YMMV.
Addendun: The Epic or UR Phoenix Tokens have the worst odds in all this mess.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Not the norm, true. But hardly a lottery win either.
Yeah, I was making a poor attempt at humor, but thanks for posting the exact odds.
It's made to sound like it's all but guaranteed that you can win 2 ships in 84 packs, obviously that's not the case as you have illustrated.
Yeah, those odds are shockingly bad. I was always happy I didn't need any Epic Phoenix Tokens because the drop rates are just awful.
If you must gamble, and you understand the odds and are willing to take the risk, then absolutely go R&D Promo over Lockboxes. If that's what you want to do, then by all means do it.. but make sure you go in with eyes wide open and understand that it's very possible that you will come away empty handed.
That is absolutely not how it works. Just using the 1% figure for the sake of argument, you have a 1% chance on each individual box. Those odds do not stack or increase the more boxes you open. Your odds of getting the ship will always be 1% whether opening your first box or your 100th box.
The-Grand-Nagus
Join Date: Sep 2008
Not if you consider a group of N boxes / packs before you start to open them.
The probability of getting NO ships is dependent and can be thought of as N rolls of a d100 where none scored the 100. Each one separately has a probability of 0.99, but for N (again before you start) the probability of no ship is (.99)*(.99)*(.99)... N times, or using x^y on a calculator it's (.99)^N.
With 40 unopened packs, the probability is 0.6689 that you will get 0 ships, so 33% that you will get one or more.
You're correct of course that if you've already opened 39, the last one has only a 1% chance because each pack is a separate roll of the die and probability has no memory.
That's the combined probability of getting 2+ ships out of 86 boxes.
Wrong.
Agree, thou i did open some boxes, and got 3 ships in separate promotions, i only buy them for the lobi, i have terrible luck with lobi, so 10 each is good for me, instead of 4-5 i get from the lockboxes... is always better to buy them from the exchange, you just need patience
If no-one opens boxes there are no ships to buy on the exchange.
Winning one of those just to complete a set for each character...ugh, not happening.
All of these prize packs need to be looked at objectively before you buy anything. Assume the worst...you won't get what you want from opening them...and plan for how to get what you do want.