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Will we soon know the odds?

szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
There an interesting new development in China regarding loot boxes and prize packs.
A new regulation will be going into effect in May 2017 that will require game publishers in China to reveal the statistical probabilities and odds for items that can be gained through "loot boxes". Additionally, publishers must reveal all results from random drawings.

2.6 ...Online game publishers shall promptly publicly announce information about the name, property, content, quantity, and draw/forge probability of all virtual items and services that can be drawn/forged, on the official website or a dedicated draw probability webpage of the game. The information on draw probability shall be true and effective.

2.7 Online game publishers shall publicly announce the random draw results by customers on notable places of official website or in game, and keep record for government inquiry. The record must be kept for more than 90 days. When publishing the random draw results, some measures should be taken place to protect user privacy.

mmorpg.com/news/publishers-must-reveal-loot-box-odds-in-china-1000042402

So every publisher who wants his game to be playable in China would have to publish loot tables and probablilites, or withdraw from China completely. I'm very curious about the consequences for STO. Even more so since Perfect World is owned by the Chinese. Will we soon know the exact drop chance for a grand prize ship as well as any other item? It could mean a serious blow for lockbox and R&D pack sales.

Comments

  • captainwellscaptainwells Member Posts: 718 Arc User
    I suppose that sales might be adversely impacted to some degree, but after all each time that someone does score an elite ship that info pops up in the feed for all to see in an effort to suggest that hope springs eternal. The proofs in the pudding, so I for one would be more than glad to see the hard data.
  • szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
    I suppose that sales might be adversely impacted to some degree, but after all each time that someone does score an elite ship that info pops up in the feed for all to see in an effort to suggest that hope springs eternal. The proofs in the pudding, so I for one would be more than glad to see the hard data.

    Me too. I think I've always gambled responsively, never exceeding my pre-set expenditure limit. But many people might think twice before buying lockbox keys and promotional packs when they know that the probablity for a grand prize to drop is lying somewhere between 0.5 an 2%. After all there's a reason why hardly any game company publishes this kind of information right now.
  • taylor1701dtaylor1701d Member Posts: 3,099 Arc User
    I think it's only fair. Will it hurt sales ? Possibly.

    If it does hurt sales, you can expect the cost of gaming to inflate to make up for the losses.
    [img][/img]OD5urLn.jpg
  • jaguarskxjaguarskx Member Posts: 5,945 Arc User
    This new regulation will actually not affect STO so Cryptic will not release a probability table for "loot boxes".

    According to the following Wikipedia link, PWE blocks Star Trek Online from certain regions; one of the region is China. Since STO cannot be played in China, then it will not be subject to China's pending regulation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Trek_Online
  • szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
    jaguarskx wrote: »
    This new regulation will actually not affect STO so Cryptic will not release a probability table for "loot boxes".

    According to the following Wikipedia link, PWE blocks Star Trek Online from certain regions; one of the region is China. Since STO cannot be played in China, then it will not be subject to China's pending regulation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Trek_Online

    I didn't know that, thanks for pointing that out. Though being owned by a Chinese company might still have some effect. And even if not, this new regulation might motivate other regions like the US and Europe to take similar measures.
  • gavinrunebladegavinruneblade Member Posts: 3,894 Arc User
    I'm not sure that publishing odds will change much, unless companies lie. Lottery companies publish their odds, which are far worse than our loot boxes, but people still buy in mass quantity.
    To give the full and accurate quote by HL Mencken:

    “No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”

    “The mistake that is made always runs the other way. Because the plain people are able to speak and understand, and even, in many cases, to read and write, it is assumed that they have ideas in their heads, and an appetite for more. This assumption is a folly.”
  • crypticarmsmancrypticarmsman Member Posts: 4,100 Arc User
    szim wrote: »
    There an interesting new development in China regarding loot boxes and prize packs.
    A new regulation will be going into effect in May 2017 that will require game publishers in China to reveal the statistical probabilities and odds for items that can be gained through "loot boxes". Additionally, publishers must reveal all results from random drawings.

    2.6 ...Online game publishers shall promptly publicly announce information about the name, property, content, quantity, and draw/forge probability of all virtual items and services that can be drawn/forged, on the official website or a dedicated draw probability webpage of the game. The information on draw probability shall be true and effective.

    2.7 Online game publishers shall publicly announce the random draw results by customers on notable places of official website or in game, and keep record for government inquiry. The record must be kept for more than 90 days. When publishing the random draw results, some measures should be taken place to protect user privacy.

    mmorpg.com/news/publishers-must-reveal-loot-box-odds-in-china-1000042402

    So every publisher who wants his game to be playable in China would have to publish loot tables and probablilites, or withdraw from China completely. I'm very curious about the consequences for STO. Even more so since Perfect World is owned by the Chinese. Will we soon know the exact drop chance for a grand prize ship as well as any other item? It could mean a serious blow for lockbox and R&D pack sales.

    Unfortunately, until a similar law is passed in the U.S. and EU and UK - PWE will have no incentive to publish such stats/info OUTSIDE of China. Hell, most MMO clients in China have things like forced logouts after a certain number of hours online (again due to Chinese law); and the removal of skeleton type MOBs, etc. Just because PWI will have to do something for their Chinese players doesn't mean PWE will follow suit in othe parts of the world unless/until such laws force them to do so.
    Formerly known as Armsman from June 2008 to June 20, 2012
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    PWE ARC Drone says: "Your STO forum community as you have known it is ended...Display names are irrelevant...Any further sense of community is irrelevant...Resistance is futile...You will be assimilated..."
  • seaofsorrowsseaofsorrows Member Posts: 10,918 Arc User
    Hopefully, more regulations like this come into play sooner rather then later.

    I have no real problem with Gambling boxes, but it seems perfectly reasonable to me that the odds be published. I never did see any good reason to withhold this information from the customers.
    Insert witty signature line here.
  • tigerariestigeraries Member Posts: 3,492 Arc User
    but other games they offer are played in China... and they have gamble boxes in those... so even if they dont post STO's odds... we will still have a "rough" idea.
  • gavinrunebladegavinruneblade Member Posts: 3,894 Arc User
    Well, neverwinter boxes are pretty different from STO boxes and neverwinter are the only ones I expect to see stats for. What will give us that rough idea is seeing how close the observed results were compared to official numbers. If the guys opening thousands on test see the expected number of artifacts and uber rare pets etc as official numbers predict, then that is a good sign for observations in champs and STO. If observation is far off from actual, then cryptic has some issues with their rng.
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