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Refining for cheap

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  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    More information to report!

    First off, I was able to find a data table for a different version of Perfect World that determines refining success rates for Mirages. This is the data in its raw form, and note that "0" refers to refining from 0->1:
    0 - .5  .7   0   0
     1 - .3   0   0   1
     2 - .3   0   0   1
     3 - .3   0   0   1
     4 - .3   0   0   1
     5 - .3   0   0   1
     6 - .3   0   0   1
     7 - .3   0   0   1
     8 - .25  0   0   1
     9 - .2   0   0   1
    10 - .12  0   0   1
    11 - .05  0   0   1
    
    As far as I can tell, the four numbers represent the chance (out of 1) for each possible outcome. The first column is the chance of success, while the second column is the chance for refining to fail but stay the same. The third I'm not sure of, since it's always 0, but I suspect this is where the chance of dropping 1 level would go. The fourth is the chance of resetting back to 0. I realize these don't all add up to 1, but I assume the game checks them in order from left to right.

    While it's not info from PWI, it's likely that PWI uses something similar. I can't/won't check the data for PWI because while I don't really care about other versions of PW, there's no way I'm going to touch PWI's game files.

    Now, of course, none of this is really usable if PWI is different, so for that we need to actually test it out in-game. I attempted to do some refining today, and failed spectacularly, but the information is still valuable.

    Refining a Cape of Tauren Cheiftan at Archosaur Elder, 8pm server time, "Midnight" game time:
    0->1:  115/233  (49%)
    1->2:   34/115  (30%)
    2->3:   10/35   (29%)
    
    So far so good. The collected data matches past experiences and also the info from the table.

    However, I then attempted to use Tienkang stones to reach +5:
    3->4:   5/10   (50%)
    4->5:   0/5    (0%)
    
    Ug. My current theory is that Tienkang stones boost refining by about 15%, so I should have had about a 45% success rate, but as you can see I went 0/5 on trying to get the final +5, thus leaving me without my +5 Cape.

    In the end I went from a +2 Cape to a +3 Cape at a cost of 398 Mirages and 15 Tienkang stones. Total price paid was about 6million. Woohoo! b:victory

    Despite this epic fail, though, I'm feeling more confident that cheap refines of +5/6 are entirely reasonable provided you can afford to play the averages and take the occasional big loss. Right now I'm focussing on figuring out Tienkang and Tisha stone probabilities, and so far it's looking like they may allow up to around +8 or so for roughly half the cost of Dragon Orbs. Once again, when I have more info and can be more certain, I'll post what I've figured out.

    - EDIT -

    Slight corrections in the values for +7 and up.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Rillien - Heavens TearRillien - Heavens Tear Posts: 569 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Had a similar epic failure concerning a Sky Demon's Pearl necklace last month and some tisha stones...didn't keep track of statistics however, so not much help there b:surrender

    Mainly wanted to say thank you for compiling all this information, especially in light of such expensive D orb prices. After all the number crunching, this would serve as a lovely "Guide to refining" of sorts. Once I get geared up for the 90s I'll have some nice data to contribute.
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Whoa, lots more data. Contributors so far: Warren (3 data sets), me, Brael, DarkSeph, Vitenka, Mumintroll.

    Cumulative stats:
    +1: 53.1% +/- 1.9% (n = 635)
    +2: 33.4% +/- 2.5% (n = 338)
    +3: 30.2% +/- 4.4% (n = 106)
    +4: 25% +/- 11% (n = 16, unreliable)
    +5: 75% +/- 21% (n = 4, very unreliable)

    It looks like pretty good matches for the chart Warren posted above. The first two are slightly outside the 95% confidence interval, but they're easily within the 99% confidence interval. I do wonder though if there's a small hidden luck stat which can give you a few extra percent.

    Assuming the chances of success are 50% for +1, and 30% for +2 through +6, the noteworthy chances of success are (assuming gold @ 400k, dorbs @ 0.27 gold, and mirages @ 15k)

    0 -> +1
    1 mirage: 50%
    7 mirages (equiv. orb price): 99.2%

    +1 -> +2
    5 mirages: 50%
    29 mirages (equiv. orb price): 96.9%

    +2 -> +3
    15 mirages: 50%
    72 mirages (equiv. orb price): 90.6%

    +3 -> +4
    45 mirages: 50%
    180 mirages (equiv. orb price): 83.4%

    +4 -> +5
    146 mirages: 50%
    432 mirages (equiv. orb price): 74.8%

    +5 -> +6
    479 mirages: 50%
    936 mirages (equiv. orb price): 63.9%

    So it looks like around +6, the dragon orbs will become worth it (spending roughly half the cost of a +6 orb on mirages gives you a 50% chance to succeed at +6. Realistically, you probably want to start at +5 just so you don't go insane clicking refine over and over. Of course these numbers will change depending on gold and mirage prices, and any sales on dragon orbs.

    I guess next we start working on chances for Tisha and Tienkang stones.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Whoa, lots more data. Contributors so far: Warren (3 data sets), me, Brael, DarkSeph, Vitenka, Mumintroll.

    Cumulative stats:
    +1: 53.1% +/- 1.9% (n = 635)
    +2: 33.4% +/- 2.5% (n = 338)
    +3: 30.2% +/- 4.4% (n = 106)
    +4: 25% +/- 11% (n = 16, unreliable)
    +5: 75% +/- 21% (n = 4, very unreliable)

    It looks like pretty good matches for the chart Warren posted above. The first two are slightly outside the 95% confidence interval, but they're easily within the 99% confidence interval. I do wonder though if there's a small hidden luck stat which can give you a few extra percent.

    Assuming the chances of success are 50% for +1, and 30% for +2 through +6, the noteworthy chances of success are (assuming gold @ 400k, dorbs @ 0.27 gold, and mirages @ 15k)

    0 -> +1
    1 mirage: 50%
    7 mirages (equiv. orb price): 99.2%

    +1 -> +2
    5 mirages: 50%
    29 mirages (equiv. orb price): 96.9%

    +2 -> +3
    15 mirages: 50%
    72 mirages (equiv. orb price): 90.6%

    +3 -> +4
    45 mirages: 50%
    180 mirages (equiv. orb price): 83.4%

    +4 -> +5
    146 mirages: 50%
    432 mirages (equiv. orb price): 74.8%

    +5 -> +6
    479 mirages: 50%
    936 mirages (equiv. orb price): 63.9%

    So it looks like around +6, the dragon orbs will become worth it (spending roughly half the cost of a +6 orb on mirages gives you a 50% chance to succeed at +6. Realistically, you probably want to start at +5 just so you don't go insane clicking refine over and over. Of course these numbers will change depending on gold and mirage prices, and any sales on dragon orbs.

    I guess next we start working on chances for Tisha and Tienkang stones.

    All your work is absolutely INSANE. I'm a member of faction, who own territory. Problem is, that I don't have mirages right now. But maybe I will buy some just for statistic. And try it at this land officer to refine.b:victory
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Valirah - SanctuaryValirah - Sanctuary Posts: 522 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Had done some refining a while ago and recorded the results. Did quite well for the most part but hit a huge stretch of fail in the +2,+3 range that tanked my averages.


    +1 : 143 Pass / 149 Fail (48.97%)
    +2 : 34 Pass / 105 Fail (24.46%)
    +3 : 5 Pass / 29 Fail (14.71%)
    +4 : 2 Pass / 3 Fail (40.00%)


    +3 with Tienkangs : 1 Pass / 0 Fail (100.00%)
    +4 with Tienkangs : 2 Pass / 2 Fail (50.00%)


    EDIT:
    I just remembered that I did some minor refines for a friend and had very good luck. 4 items, starting at +1, took 7 mirage to get to +2.

    +1 : 1 Pass / 1 Fail (50.00%)
    +2 : 4 Pass / 1 Fail (80.00%)
  • Obsessed - Heavens TearObsessed - Heavens Tear Posts: 670 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Got 3 things to +4 with just mirages. G14 Helm, G12 top and pants

    Data:

    +1 : 56 Pass / 54 Fail
    +2 : 14 Pass / 42 Fail
    +3 : 6 Pass / 8 Fail
    +4 : 3 Pass / 3 Fail

    I think I got lucky =P

    /bump epic thread
  • slutmonkeyslutmonkey Posts: 22 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Ok I semi consider myself an expert on refining without Dragon Orbs.

    I have successfully refined two weapons to +8 and a necklace to +8. I have also refined almost all my gear to +3 or +4.

    Get your faction members together and make them all speak to duke for an hour.

    Write down every refining Tip he speaks, as he speaks the truth kiddies. Ignore the ones about lands unless you own land as that list can be found easily.

    Everything Duke says is true. While Some of his tips may only boost your luck by 1% or 5%. It is still worth listening to. If you follow all his tips and use Tiesha stones +3 and above, you give you self a high chance to get high level refines. I would start off trying you luck by refining anything other than weapons, as that can get costly.

    There is some good stuff in this thread. Yes you can get multiple successes in a row. Like about 3 if your click the refine button really quick. Same applies to failures. There are several tips that teach you how to get these tips.

    Do not bother refining unless you know most of the tips from duke. There are about 7 or 8 useful ones. A couple not so useful and 2 or 3 joke ones.

    Such as raising your head to the sky and shouting, and another one (have a good computer). These two are jokes. Take the rest very seriously.

    It can be very stressful to refine in this way.

    DO NOT USE TIENKUNG stones. If you have the no drop quest ones perhaps use them to get to +3, Do not use any stones to get to +1 or +2.

    My faction owns a +8 Land, I have only had the good fortune to test it out 3 times.

    Both times I followed ALL of dukes tips I succeeded in going form +7 to +8 (with a teisha stone) without any failures.
    I was in a bit of a rush the third time I tried it and I ignored the rule, "make sure there are NO players around", and I had a failure. I have not been back to try and +8 that again yeh I have left it at +6 for now. So I think owning a land does increase the chances, but the increase is not huge. Its like all the rules from Duke. The increase per rule is low. Add them all together and your in business.

    To get a weapon from +3 - +7 I would recommend about 30 tiesha. This is not a guarantee u will succeed though. It cost me 13 tiesha for one weapon, and about 25 on another.

    I am not going to post all the tips here cause I can't recall all of them word for word.

    And you do need to follow them word for word. It took about 10 people in my faction 3 hours to get all the rules from Duke. There is still 1 or 2 I don't know.

    I will give you one tip though, if you fail. Wait one minute and try again. I can confirm, this tip from Duke is very very reliable.

    If anyone needs proof duke is reliable. Buy a handful of low level mats and craft at the tailor in west with **** loads of people around. Craft about 30-50 items. Record how many 2 or 3 star items you get.

    Then go to Sumor camp or somewhere else where u can craft low level items with NO players around (not even a single person). Repeat test.

    One of dukes tips for crafting is, only do it when no one is around.

    My person experience shows with 40 low level items in arch. I got 2 two star items.

    40 in Sumor camp with no one around, I got 7 2 star items and 2 3 star items.

    I also once crafted 3 three star items in a row.

    Can't be bothered Proof reading.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Can anyone compile all the principles of refining?
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    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
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  • Absoluth - Heavens TearAbsoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Thanks for the guys that made and replied to this thread. After a past of massive fail in this area, this gave me the balls to buy a s***load of mirs to up my bow. It actually took less than i expected. Around 60 mirs got my heaven shatterer to +5 :)

    Probly got lucky, but you can bet ill never use d.orbs again ^^

    Pew pew
    PWI:
    "Free to play. Pay to win"

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Elenacostel - Heavens TearElenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Thanks for the guys that made and replied to this thread. After a past of massive fail in this area, this gave me the balls to buy a s***load of mirs to up my bow. It actually took less than i expected. Around 60 mirs got my heaven shatterer to +5 :)

    Probly got lucky, but you can bet ill never use d.orbs again ^^

    Pew pew

    Yeah okay, I'm jealous.

    I used up 70-80 mirages and 3 Tienkang stones to get a Broad Land +2 to +0.
  • Zhoubotong - Heavens TearZhoubotong - Heavens Tear Posts: 14 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    First, thanks everyone for the data. This is absolutely awesome work!!!

    I don't have mirages to test myself, so I just borrowed your data to make simulations.

    Program: SAS, 100 trials of up to 5000 refine attempts
    Assumptions:
    15k per mirage
    100k per 1 star orb
    Refine rates per table in warren's post #154
    Attempted to compensate for survivor bias by assuming success at 6000 if we fail up to 5000

    Average cost in coins to get to x refine level (armor, 1 mirage per try) using mirages
    1: 30k
    2: 150k
    3: 500k
    4: 1.9M
    5: 6M
    6: 20M
    7: only ran up to 5000 attempts since I figured no sane player would go above this

    The above can be solved theoretically, so the interesting part was the comparison against Dragon Orbs. With the above cost assumptions, at what point would using Dragon Orbs be cheaper than Mirages?
    With up to +6 armor, Dragon Orbs do not break even.
    With weapon, using dragon orbs starting from +2 to +3 will break even by +4 and will be cheaper than mirages alone by +5. Using dragon orbs starting from +3 yields similar results.

    I'm very excited about the insights that people are finding. I'd also love to code in benefits from Duke and from the other refining materials.
  • slutmonkeyslutmonkey Posts: 22 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Thanks for the guys that made and replied to this thread. After a past of massive fail in this area, this gave me the balls to buy a s***load of mirs to up my bow. It actually took less than i expected. Around 60 mirs got my heaven shatterer to +5 :)

    Probly got lucky, but you can bet ill never use d.orbs again ^^

    Pew pew

    Without any stones? I would not recommend this at all.

    I have a 'test' item as per one of the tips from duke. It has had over 1000 mirages/refines run on it. It has never gone above +4. It goes to plus 3 now and then. But I dont really watch it that close.

    Yes you can get lucky and get 5 success in a row. But 95% of the time you wont get past +4 without any kinda stone.
  • Absoluth - Heavens TearAbsoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Im the guy that opened over 500 anniv packs and didnt get a single item...not even charm. So i guess i was due for some good luck ^^
    PWI:
    "Free to play. Pay to win"

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • DeathBanana - Heavens TearDeathBanana - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,674 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    I wonder if anyone would get flamed for necroing this a year later.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    9x Demon Cleric
  • MissAnthrope - SanctuaryMissAnthrope - Sanctuary Posts: 131 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    is only a month old...
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    *collapses* I... think... I finally have it figured out...

    First off, THANK YOU to everybody who has contributed to this thread! Even those of you who could only submit small samples or anecdotal accounts of what you've experienced have been very helpful. Your factual contributions have been more informative than anything I was ever able to track down on any PW forum, anywhere.b:thanks

    Using a different version of PW, I have confirmed the exact refining odds for Mirages, Tienkang Stones, and Tisha Stones and have posted the results on the PWI Wiki: http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Refining#Refining_without_Dragon_Orbs:

    These values only go up to +12, however, and it's entirely possible that PWI may have altered the higher level odds since refines of greater than +12 are supposedly (going to be? now?) possible. However, thanks to everybody's contributions to the thread we've got enough statistical data to be virtually certain that at least for the lower levels (+8 and below), these values are correct.

    I have made an Excel Spreadsheet that allows you to enter current costs and it will then calculate which Stones/Orbs are the best to use, assuming you want to play the averages and are willing to accept the risks involved. For example, refining armour/accesories at current Sanctuary prices:

    Mirages = 15k
    Gold = 440k (after 2% AH fee)
    With current Dragon Orbs 1-5 and 10 sales in effect
    Best Choice   AVG Total Cost  Savings
    +1  Mirage               30,000    68%
    +2  Mirage              150,000    65%
    +3  Mirage              550,000    55%
    +4  Tienkang          1,519,556    53%
    +5  Tienkang          3,674,123    54%
    +6  Tisha             8,350,505    54%
    +7  Tisha            18,032,873    49%
    +8  Tisha            37,652,500    44%
    +9  Dragon Orb 10    70,667,500    30%
    +10 Dragon Orb 10   103,682,500    22%
    +11 Dragon Orb 11   228,173,500    12%	
    +12 Dragon Orb 12   445,064,500     6%
    
    The spreadsheet does a Risk-VS-Gain calculation for every type of stone, weighing the potential gain versus the potential loss and choosing the stone that will, on average, cost the least. This is then price-compared with having used only Dragon Orbs instead.

    At the moment I'm checking the spreadsheet for mathematical errors and making it more user-friendly. I'll find a place to post it in the next couple of days or so.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    slutmonkey wrote: »
    Get your faction members together and make them all speak to duke for an hour.

    Write down every refining Tip he speaks, as he speaks the truth kiddies. Ignore the ones about lands unless you own land as that list can be found easily.

    Everything Duke says is true. While Some of his tips may only boost your luck by 1% or 5%. It is still worth listening to. If you follow all his tips and use Tiesha stones +3 and above, you give you self a high chance to get high level refines. I would start off trying you luck by refining anything other than weapons, as that can get costly.
    Hmm... I haven't actually tried to talk to Duke before doing the refining. My assumption was that his rumours were statements about conditions that are true regardless of whether or not you talk to him first.

    So far I have never seen the odds change at all, no matter where/when I've refined. Again, this is all on a different version of PW, but that version has Duke's same rumours as well.

    If talking to Duke does indeed change the odds, even slightly, I can confirm it. I'll have to get back to you, though, because frankly I'm burnt out right now! b:shocked
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • DeathBanana - Heavens TearDeathBanana - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,674 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    WOW, epic post wolfy! +1
    ...or rather, +12 b:chuckle
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    9x Demon Cleric
  • Vitenka - DreamweaverVitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Suggestion warren - have the spreadsheet not just give the average, but the variance as well. Because "Hey! I can save 50%" doesn't take into account the "Ah, but there's a 25% chance that it costs triple" factor.
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    My gf recently pointed out the rather obvious fact that if we worked out reliable averages here and found cheaper alternatives to orbs, they could quite easily just jack up the failure rates on mirage refines.

    I wouldn't put it past them, they've been **** around with TT solo mode long enough. It's quite possible they have marketing researchers who browse the forum from time to time :/
  • Brael - DreamweaverBrael - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,430 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    The spreadsheet does a Risk-VS-Gain calculation for every type of stone, weighing the potential gain versus the potential loss and choosing the stone that will, on average, cost the least. This is then price-compared with having used only Dragon Orbs instead.

    At the moment I'm checking the spreadsheet for mathematical errors and making it more user-friendly. I'll find a place to post it in the next couple of days or so.

    Very nice. One suggestion I've got for you. Also include the refines on weapons since they take two mirage. That would alter the savings when using each refining aid.
  • Zhoubotong - Heavens TearZhoubotong - Heavens Tear Posts: 14 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    warren -

    what's the absorbing state? just one single 1 at 12,12? I'm having trouble getting the transition matrix to work out when calculating mean first arrival times. thanks.
  • Deceptistar - SanctuaryDeceptistar - Sanctuary Posts: 10,454 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    For most pple who test these out, do you close your window after each refine? or tend to just continue it open window.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]lagunal8.deviantart.com
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  • Chillum - DreamweaverChillum - Dreamweaver Posts: 887 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Just did a little refining to add my info in:

    Started around 12.10pm (Website time) 5th Jan 2010. Finished 12.25pm.

    I didn't dare go past +3 at the moment.

    Dark Pants of Hades (Started at +2)

    0 -> 1 3 / 4
    1 -> 2 2 / 1
    2 -> 3 1 / 2

    1 Star Genesis Boots (Started at +1)

    0 -> 1 1 / 1
    1 -> 2 1 / 1
    2 -> 3 1 / 0

    1 Star Cloak of Grace (Started at +1)

    0 -> 1 3 / 1
    1 -> 2 1 / 3
    2 -> 3 1 / 0

    Sleeves of Sea Captain (Started at +2)

    0 -> 1 6 / 15
    1 -> 2 5 / 1
    2 -> 3 1 / 5

    Cumulitave totals:

    0 -> 1 13 / 21
    1 -> 2 9 / 6
    2 -> 3 4 / 7

    Hope this helps.

    Regards.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Rillien - Heavens TearRillien - Heavens Tear Posts: 569 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Ahhhhh this is such a great thread!

    Thanks all you statisticians/data compliers b:thanks
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Someone made an incomplete list of the principles of refining here:

    http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showpost.php?p=5110562&postcount=10
    [Ah, the principles of refining, as written down by yours truly]
    Refining Principles:
    4. Restart the game before you refine your gear. Me? I would reset my computer instead.
    5. Close refining window every time you finish refining
    7. Go on if you were successful in the second refining of the day, otherwise you'd better wait for tomorrow.
    8. If you fail a refining attempt, wait a minute before you try again. Test with anything lower then [sic] level 5 until you are successful, then refine your important gear.
    9. Each time before you do refining, lift your head up and shout "Praise be to the Heavens! Praise to the Earth! Praise to technology! Praise to the Internet! Praise to the game industry!", then kneel down with your head to the ground. This will get you in the mood for refining.

    [Here are some more condensed rules of refining, not written down as accurately as the ones I recorded myself, but taken from forum posts]
    Better chances when...:
    A. Between 0400-0900 (military time)
    B. Less people around you.
    C. Some wait time in between refines.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • Demans - Lost CityDemans - Lost City Posts: 105 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    I'm wondering if it isn't a 40% chance each level.

    It's rumored that fortune stones will come out with rising tide which makes me really happy because getting +7 isn't as daunting now.

    Basically fortune stones (if released) will cost about the same as tisha stones. If you fail with a fortune stone your refine doesn't reset or go down 1.


    Looking at the my-en translation, the success rate isn't linear. It could also be that using a fortune stone will chance the success rate due to it being so easy to +12 if refine level doesn't reset and it's a 40% chance each level.

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/my/items/12980


    u do reilze the fourtune stone IS A 1 STAR D ORB right? look at the succes rates, 100% to +1 (1 star orb), 25% to succed at +2 (takes 4 1 stars to make 1 2* that has 100%, 100%/4 1* orbs = 25% ea), 10% chacne for +3 (takes 10 1* orbs to make 1 3* orb =100%, 100%/ 10 1* orbs = 10% ea), etc, and acoordin to pwdatabase, 10 pack = 4 gold 50 silver while d orb 10 pack = 2 gold 70 silver meanin on acverage, d orb r MUCH cheaper


    reads:
    *collapses* I... think... I finally have it figured out...

    First off, THANK YOU to everybody who has contributed to this thread! Even those of you who could only submit small samples or anecdotal accounts of what you've experienced have been very helpful. Your factual contributions have been more informative than anything I was ever able to track down on any PW forum, anywhere.b:thanks

    Using a different version of PW, I have confirmed the exact refining odds for Mirages, Tienkang Stones, and Tisha Stones and have posted the results on the PWI Wiki: http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Refining#Refining_without_Dragon_Orbs:

    These values only go up to +12, however, and it's entirely possible that PWI may have altered the higher level odds since refines of greater than +12 are supposedly (going to be? now?) possible. However, thanks to everybody's contributions to the thread we've got enough statistical data to be virtually certain that at least for the lower levels (+8 and below), these values are correct.

    I have made an Excel Spreadsheet that allows you to enter current costs and it will then calculate which Stones/Orbs are the best to use, assuming you want to play the averages and are willing to accept the risks involved. For example, refining armour/accesories at current Sanctuary prices:

    Mirages = 15k
    Gold = 440k (after 2% AH fee)
    With current Dragon Orbs 1-5 and 10 sales in effect
    Best Choice   AVG Total Cost  Savings
    +1  Mirage               30,000    68%
    +2  Mirage              150,000    65%
    +3  Mirage              550,000    55%
    +4  Tienkang          1,519,556    53%
    +5  Tienkang          3,674,123    54%
    +6  Tisha             8,350,505    54%
    +7  Tisha            18,032,873    49%
    +8  Tisha            37,652,500    44%
    +9  Dragon Orb 10    70,667,500    30%
    +10 Dragon Orb 10   103,682,500    22%
    +11 Dragon Orb 11   228,173,500    12%	
    +12 Dragon Orb 12   445,064,500     6%
    
    The spreadsheet does a Risk-VS-Gain calculation for every type of stone, weighing the potential gain versus the potential loss and choosing the stone that will, on average, cost the least. This is then price-compared with having used only Dragon Orbs instead.

    At the moment I'm checking the spreadsheet for mathematical errors and making it more user-friendly. I'll find a place to post it in the next couple of days or so.

    omg...i think i just came, tyvm for the info 0_o
    well when ur LA psy has same wep grade and refine as ur pure AA wiz, hits as high per shot, has faster dps, and has 2x the crit %, time to retire the wiz............

    dam op fishy....
  • Absoluth - Heavens TearAbsoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    My gf recently pointed out the rather obvious fact that if we worked out reliable averages here and found cheaper alternatives to orbs, they could quite easily just jack up the failure rates on mirage refines.

    I wouldn't put it past them, they've been **** around with TT solo mode long enough. It's quite possible they have marketing researchers who browse the forum from time to time :/
    My thoughts exactly...
    Im expecting this to happen soon, like in a week or 2, since this thread got so popular.
    PWI:
    "Free to play. Pay to win"

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    My thoughts exactly...
    Im expecting this to happen soon, like in a week or 2, since this thread got so popular.

    PWE has consistently proven they have little control over gameplay mechanics. I doubt the devs in China are reading this thread.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • Deceptistar - SanctuaryDeceptistar - Sanctuary Posts: 10,454 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Gave a try at refining from this thread. I tend to have horrible luck tho.

    Factors
    -about 200 mirages to start off in bank
    plus
    -gold used: 110G
    Gold = 440k
    that 110G spent on Mirages(12.5k-16k) and Tienkang stones

    -(Dragon Orbs sales currently 1star(10) goes for 1G 80silver)
    -to +5 from orbs would be 18G in all atm (possibly less since you usually just mirage to +2-3)

    -used mirages to +2-3 then tienkang to +5
    Result:
    12 gears +5'ed
    1 gear +2'ed

    i didnt NEED some of those extra +5'ed but i wanted to use it to 'rotate' the refining around.
    ex) Got 5 gears to +3. Then use tienkang to +4 them. At least 1-2 of them will be +4'ed success. Rest will fail so rinse and repeat again.

    Im sure some have way better luck. This was the result of my personal trys
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]lagunal8.deviantart.com
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