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Refining for cheap

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  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    U are admitedly stuped

    So do you have some conclusions and suggestion? Or you have to just need to write something on the forum?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Purra_Pearl - SanctuaryPurra_Pearl - Sanctuary Posts: 103 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    U are admitedly stuped

    Post proof or retract.
  • RedsRose - Lost CityRedsRose - Lost City Posts: 12,354 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    So do you have some conclusions and suggestion? Or you have to just need to write something on the forum?
    Post proof or retract.

    I would like to third the motion.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    RoidAbuse is awesome, only he would sell his sperm for gear!!

    "Toughest monster? ..... RedsRose b:surrender" - Kantorek
    Where is my 1 v 1 Kan? b:mischievous
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Btw it's true that you have more chance to refine when there are no peeps around you, so testing this in Arch is a no no ......
    So far I haven't seen any difference. Actually, that's not true. I did slightly better refining 100+ stones in Archo as I did refining 100+ stones in that south-western desert town that's in middle of nowhere with zero people around.

    Besides, the whole point is to actually test these "it's better if you (whatever)" theories, not just follow them blindly. So we need comparison data from Archo just as much as we need it from other places.
    Post proof or retract.
    I'm Canadian. Does that count?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    So far I haven't seen any difference. Actually, that's not true. I did slightly better refining 100+ stones in Archo as I did refining 100+ stones in that south-western desert town that's in middle of nowhere with zero people around.

    I've always had best results in Archo. Same with my gf, she went +1 recently on every single piece of equip she had with an exact 50/50 success (tt70 set, saka, 3* ornaments and cape)
    U are admitedly stuped

    You keep refining low + with orbs and we'll keep doing it at a fraction the price....Doesn't make a difference to anyone :P

    EDIT: Mail of Antiquity
    +1 (3/10) -30%
    +2 (1/4) -25%
  • Nelae - Heavens TearNelae - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,490 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Well went to refine my TT80 top (arcane green), in a crowed area i managed +2 out of each 5-8 attempts and never get to +3....then failed to 0.

    Went in a low area with no players, manged to get +3 out of 9mirages...would test even more just low on mirages atm b:chuckle
    b:dirty
  • Purra_Pearl - SanctuaryPurra_Pearl - Sanctuary Posts: 103 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I'm Canadian. Does that count?

    That doesn't make you stupid. Oh, sorry, "stuped." That just makes you a BABY SEAL CLUBBER! b:cry Please, for the love of all things holy stop pelting the caribou with Tim Bits! b:sad
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Went in a low area with no players, manged to get +3 out of 9mirages...would test even more just low on mirages atm b:chuckle
    I'm not sure if by "low area" you mean low-level, but here's my data for Sandsong village, which is that high-level south-west desert village that's virtually always completely empty:
    0-1: 56/86 (60.5%)
    1-2: 16/52 (30.8%)
    2-3:  3/16 (18.8%)
    3-4:  0/3  (0%)
    
    157 Mirages still isn't really a whole bunch, but so far it's looking like Duke's rumour about refining when nobody is around is just a red herring.

    Also, I think I can officially call my flat 40% theory completely busted. Refining rate does indeed decrease as you get higher. It's looking to me like there's going to be a practical cap on cheap refining at probably no more than +5. Still going to need to get more data, though, to find out if Tisha/Tienkang stones can push this higher.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Toxic - DreamweaverToxic - Dreamweaver Posts: 239 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    @1k Streams:

    Lvl 9 Sleeves: +0 to +4 with 9 mirages
    Lvl 10 Weapon: +2 to +2 with 120 mirages b:angry
    <3 Tapout <3
  • Legerity - SanctuaryLegerity - Sanctuary Posts: 1,072 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    This may help, but I didn't collect data fully.

    I just made note that 137 mirages got me to +3 6 times, 5 of which were consecutive.
    I also stopped when I got 2 +4s.

    Previous data:
    55 mirages for +3 6 times, +2 3 times.
    then an additional 243 for +4 3 times.

    I relog when I get long chains of unsuccessful refines. I also use item switches to refine. I notice a lot of the time that refine successes happen in groups of three so when I spot 2 consecutive successful refines, I swap it with something I intend to get to +4 from +3 and it works more often than not.

    In total I have spent less than 800 mirages and I have gotten all my gear to +4 (minus ornaments) with no help of support stones. That's +4 7 times which is 245 1* orbs (35x7) which is 66gold which equates to 26.4m at 400k not withstanding all the +3s I have and have sold. 800mirages at 14k/u is 11.2m

    That's a big saving imo.

    I have 3k mirages left in bank so I may collect data when using those when I plan to waste them on some more higher refine grades.
  • Ms_HopToIt - SanctuaryMs_HopToIt - Sanctuary Posts: 914 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I know theres various npcs to refine gear at... so if duke black says go to ____ if you want to refine something to +12 would you have better luck refining at that npc than other npcs without d orbs?

    EDIT: I guess im asking is duke blacke a liar, cheater, and scammer?
    >.<
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Lv71 helm, 5 mirages, archosaur
    +1 2/3
    +2 1/2

    Someday I'll post results that actually give good statistics, but just throwing up further proof that refining with mirages is far cheaper than orbs. Also the "quiet area theory" is looking less valid each time I refine.

    I think duke only works if you own the land in the area he suggests you refine at b:surrender
  • Miss_Tika - Lost CityMiss_Tika - Lost City Posts: 730 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    This is kinda sad.

    People who are spamming mirages at the Elder for refines have no idea what they're doing...

    It's all about going to a specific Officer of a specific Land (Yes, your faction has to own land), at a specific ingame-time, with Tisha and/or Tienkang stones.

    Otherwise randomly spamming mirages to your hearts content will get you no where.

    /Thread
  • Vitenka - DreamweaverVitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Yeah "Your faction has to own the land". That's a really useful option for most players.

    Ok, here's my small test. In dream, refining a lvl7 robe.

    0-1 success 3 failed 1
    1-2 success 1 failed 2

    2-3 using a tienkang stone ('greatly increases chance')
    success 1 failed 0
    3-4 using a tisha stone (refine only drops by one if fail)
    success 1 failed 0


    .. forget testing, I'm stopping there :)
    Which yeah, selection bias is gonna be a problem with any of these reports. But either I'm the luckiest SOB on the planet, or those stones really do work.

    For what it's worth, I continued with a different item and had much worse luck.
    Level9 sleeves, 2-3 using tienkang failed 4 times, no success.
    Ran out of free stones at that point.
  • Solandri - Heavens TearSolandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Lvl 9 Sleeves: +0 to +4 with 9 mirages
    Lvl 10 Weapon: +2 to +2 with 120 mirages b:angry
    This may help, but I didn't collect data fully.

    I just made note that 137 mirages got me to +3 6 times, 5 of which were consecutive.
    I also stopped when I got 2 +4s.

    Previous data:
    55 mirages for +3 6 times, +2 3 times.
    then an additional 243 for +4 3 times.
    I don't mean to discourage people from trying to help. We need as much data as we can and I'm glad so many people want to contribute. But stuff like "x mirages to get to +3" doesn't help much because it's circular. We're doing this to figure out the true refining success rate. But to back out how many times you probably hit +1 and +2 in order to get +3, we need to already know the true refining success rate for +1 and +2. It's possible to back it out recursively, but that messes up any margin of error calculations, making it difficult to judge how close we are getting to the true success rate.

    So if at all possible, you should count how many times you succeeded/failed at each of the refine steps (+1 attemps, +2 attempts, +3 attempts, etc).
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    This is kinda sad.

    People who are spamming mirages at the Elder for refines have no idea what they're doing...

    It's all about going to a specific Officer of a specific Land (Yes, your faction has to own land), at a specific ingame-time, with Tisha and/or Tienkang stones.

    Otherwise randomly spamming mirages to your hearts content will get you no where.

    /Thread
    So says Duke's rumours. The question is, are his rumours true or not?

    While I haven't tested the specific Officer rumour yet, the rumour about specific times is looking like it's false, and the rumour about going to places where nobody is around is also looking like it's false.

    What we're gaining by doing this is knowledge that's based upon tested facts.

    If all you want to do is put your faith in the rumours and do what everybody else says you should do without any proof that it actually works, then you're right, /thread. For most people anecdotal, "it worked for me" is good enough, but I'm kinda reluctant to put my faith in what others say simply because they said so.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Legerity - SanctuaryLegerity - Sanctuary Posts: 1,072 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I don't mean to discourage people from trying to help. We need as much data as we can and I'm glad so many people want to contribute. But stuff like "x mirages to get to +3" doesn't help much because it's circular. We're doing this to figure out the true refining success rate. But to back out how many times you probably hit +1 and +2 in order to get +3, we need to already know the true refining success rate for +1 and +2. It's possible to back it out recursively, but that messes up any margin of error calculations, making it difficult to judge how close we are getting to the true success rate.

    So if at all possible, you should count how many times you succeeded/failed at each of the refine steps (+1 attemps, +2 attempts, +3 attempts, etc).

    I know - which is why I said it may/may not help.

    This was done way before the thread started and I was not really interested in collecting complete data.

    As for future attempts, that is what I plan to most certainly do.
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    This is kinda sad.

    People who are spamming mirages at the Elder for refines have no idea what they're doing...

    It's all about going to a specific Officer of a specific Land (Yes, your faction has to own land), at a specific ingame-time, with Tisha and/or Tienkang stones.

    Otherwise randomly spamming mirages to your hearts content will get you no where.

    /Thread

    Seems to be getting a large number of ppl in this thread refines as high as +5 for only a fraction the price it would cost with orbs....

    But yeh...sad. You keep using those orbs b:victory
  • Miss_Tika - Lost CityMiss_Tika - Lost City Posts: 730 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Yeah "Your faction has to own the land". That's a really useful option for most players.

    Then don't bother if you dont know what the **** you're doing. There are some methods to increase your "luck" if you may, with refine. I've found Officers of certain lands for a certain number of refine to be the most promising. One time i went from +1, +2, +3, +4, failed to 3, then back to 4, +5, +6, +7, because I followed the corresponding officers of that refine, and at a certain time of day.
    So says Duke's rumours. The question is, are his rumours true or not?

    While I haven't tested the specific Officer rumour yet, the rumour about specific times is looking like it's false, and the rumour about going to places where nobody is around is also looking like it's false.

    What we're gaining by doing this is knowledge that's based upon tested facts.

    If all you want to do is put your faith in the rumours and do what everybody else says you should do without any proof that it actually works, then you're right, /thread. For most people anecdotal, "it worked for me" is good enough, but I'm kinda reluctant to put my faith in what others say simply because they said so.

    Its not really rumors. Its information from other versions of the game. And I dont think its what "everyone says". It's actually information not many people know.

    So you're saying you'd randomly spam mirages instead of take into account of what other people say works?
    Seems to be getting a large number of ppl in this thread refines as high as +5 for only a fraction the price it would cost with orbs....

    But yeh...sad. You keep using those orbs b:victory

    huh? lol
  • Vitenka - DreamweaverVitenka - Dreamweaver Posts: 4,125 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I'll say again - "Your faction has to own the land" means that this advice is useless to the majority of players, even if it does turn out to be true.

    But without gathering info on what the refine chance is normally, we've no way of even knowing whether it is or not. There's so many rumours flying around.

    So yes, I'm happily helping test it.
  • Brael - DreamweaverBrael - Dreamweaver Posts: 1,430 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Then don't bother if you dont know what the **** you're doing. There are some methods to increase your "luck" if you may, with refine. I've found Officers of certain lands for a certain number of refine to be the most promising. One time i went from +1, +2, +3, +4, failed to 3, then back to 4, +5, +6, +7, because I followed the corresponding officers of that refine, and at a certain time of day.

    A specific location, at a specific time, is introducing three variables at once. So far the time variable has been disproven as has a general location one. If you would like to prove that an officer gives you a higher chance, then get some mirage and post the data for it. Mirages are cheap, it's not too difficult to gather 100-200 and spam them at the officer to show higher rates.
  • boo4uboo4u Posts: 415 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    plz lock this thread..its giving me a headache...jsut buy the stinkin orbs for christsakes.,.....THEY ON SALE

  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    boo4u wrote: »
    plz lock this thread..its giving me a headache...jsut buy the stinkin orbs for christsakes.,.....THEY ON SALE

    Why would I buy orbs when every low refine I've made without them has been cheaper, regardless of the sale?

    And why on earth is a thread giving you a headache? See the little "X" at the top right corner of your screen? Hit it. Problem solved. =)
  • Marista - Lost CityMarista - Lost City Posts: 294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    This probably isn't that helpful, since I forgot to record times and such when doing it, but... I had wasted about 26 mirages on my G12 Frost wand at the Elder at 1k Streams, never went past +1. Then, when I got the five free tienkeng stones, I tried them--might've been at Tideborn elder, but I can't recall for sure--and got it up to +5 without a fail.

    I'm going to be buying them in bulk when it comes time to refine my TT90 gold set, though, so I'll measure my results and post data here when I do that.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    So, I heard HA veno is the way to go? :3
  • OneHottShot - Heavens TearOneHottShot - Heavens Tear Posts: 704 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    I honestly think its random. I tried to refine a 2 star helm (low lvl for my sin) and got failed refinement 12 times in a row. 12 times in a ROW... I was like OMG!!! I think its totally random.. period. On the 13th try I got success. So I tried for a +2 and got failure another 8 times before I got it back to +1.. decided I had spent enough on it and quit.

    Finding accurate information about refining seems to be really tricky. Other than, "Dragon Orbs give 100% of refining success," there seems to be a lot of guesswork and factually inaccurate claims out there.

    Now, I don't claim to know the truth either,
    so I'm wondering if my theory matches what other people have experienced.

    My theory, based on my (admittedly limited) experience, is that refining with just Mirages has a 40% chance of success. It doesn't seem to matter what level of refinement you already have, so whether you're going from +0 to +1, or +9 to +10, you've still got a 40% chance of success.

    If that's the case, then the average number of Mirages you'll need to refine a piece of armour is as follows:

    +1: 2.5
    +2: 6.25
    +3: 15.6
    +4: 39
    +5: 98
    +6: 244
    +7: 610
    +8: 1526
    +9: 3815
    +10: 9537
    +11: 23842
    +12: 59605

    If this is true (and this is why I'm asking what others have experienced), then at current inflated Gold prices vs. deflated Mirage prices you're better off, on average, using just Mirages and skipping Dragon Orbs.

    For example, at 15k per Mirage you'll average about 9million to +7 something, but if you buy Dragon Orbs at 400k Gold prices you'll spend about 48million.

    Does this sound about right, or am I way off?
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Its not really rumors. Its information from other versions of the game. And I dont think its what "everyone says". It's actually information not many people know.

    So you're saying you'd randomly spam mirages instead of take into account of what other people say works?
    What I'm saying is that I'd like to test what other people say.

    As I pointed out in the first post of the thread, it's very difficult to sort through all the misinformation that's out there about refining. There are people who swear by certain techniques, certainly, but if you look at any human endeavor that involves gambling the actual facts of probability are going to end up buried beneath piles of superstitions. It's just human nature.

    Randomly spamming mirages is, indeed, a complete waste of time. But we're not doing that. We're keeping accurate records of what we're doing and examining the results mathematically. If a specific NPC, or specific time, or specific condition does indeed affect refining chances, then it will show up in the results and we'll be able to confirm it as being fact-based, rather than just rumour-based or because-people-who-know-the-secrets-say-so-based.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
  • Marista - Lost CityMarista - Lost City Posts: 294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Recently, I had a very positive experience using Tienkeng stones. After having failed maybe 13 times to get past +1 on my G12 wand (Sensoid Emptiness), I used the free 5 stones from the Tideborn quest and got it to +5 without a fail. I know this isn't helpful since I didn't think to write everything down at the time, buy I'll probably buy them in bulk when I start refining my TT90 gold (G11) gear. When I do, would you like me to record and post the results using them?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    So, I heard HA veno is the way to go? :3
  • _DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary_DarkSeph_ - Sanctuary Posts: 2,294 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    lv72 necklace +2 in two mirages. Archo again. That puts my total refining rates at:

    +1 11/25
    +2 6/13

    I'll keep updating as I go. Again, just the results on my alts gear.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens TearMumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Neon purgatory from 0 to +2 = 8 mirages
    1. attempt- failure
    2. attempt- failure
    3. attempt- success
    4. attempt- success

    Then I stopped. I had just 15 mirages and refining weapon take 2. So I will continue later with chance increasing stones till +4. Then I will use dragon orbs.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • WarrenWolfy - SanctuaryWarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited December 2009
    Since I'm not a member of a land-owning faction on Sanctuary, I had to get these results from a different version of Perfect World. These results are NOT from PWI, so don't trust them! However, they're very interesting because they seem to debunk one of Duke's rumours that's supposed to apply to PWI as well:

    Refining lvl. 10 Buddha's Necklace with 250 Mirages at The Harshlands Elder, 11:30pm server-time:
    0-1: 71/151 (47%)
    1-2: 18/71  (25%)
    2-3:  4/18  (22%)
    3-4:  3/4   (75%)
    4-5:  1/3   (33%)
    5-6:  1/1   (100%)
    6-7:  1/1   (100%)
    7-8:  0/1   (0%)
    

    Refining lvl. 10 Buddha's Necklace with 250 Mirages at The Harshlands Officer while belonging to the faction owning the land, 1:30am server-time:
    0-1: 68/149 (46%)
    1-2: 24/67  (36%)
    2-3:  6/24  (25%)
    3-4:  3/6   (50%)
    4-5:  1/3   (33%)
    5-6:  1/1   (100%)
    6-7:  0/1   (0%)
    

    Duke's rumour states that I should have had a better chance of refining from +0 to +1 using this Officer, but as you can see there was no effect. I'm actually somewhat surprised, because if any of Duke's refining "tips" should have been true, I would have thought this one would be.

    Note that the +7 happened after only about 15 Mirages, while the +6 happened after only about 20. Not that either of them meant anything, of course, since PWI is the only version of PW that actually matters. b:victory
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    PWI Merchanting Guides: warrenwolfy.wordpress.com
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