UES do we got ninja huge drop nerf after new year, before mod13 ''slightly increased'' ?

therealprotex

blajev said:

are you PRO or not you have numbers and still guessing you mistake the range/distribution off attempts till one drop with total attempts, if you use little brain the simple thing you can make is to multiply 30 ppl with 15 average attempts and you will get number 450 and this is minimum , for second group take 30ppl with best 1/40 and you will get number of 1200 minimum , now recalculate what ever you do and dont share with me coz this is not what i ask i ask is it changed because many ppl have same experience not only me

ps: one tip from me go from probability theory to statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation

Your problem is to understand two facts:

1. standard deviation != RNG
2. statistics != RNG

And you got your question answered already: no, the rate was not changed.

marv700

macjae said:

Your luck. 86 games isn't a large enough sample to properly determine drop rates either way.

The fact that you can say 86 runs isn't large enough is the problem in itself.

How many times should someone realistically have to run TONG? After about 1000 times is kind of like banging your head against the wall with a spike sticking out of it.

agilesto

The fact that you need to run tong several hundreds times to get an estimation of the droprate is not the problem, the problem in itself is the low droprate.

It's kind of a joke to read "pre new-year droprate was 1/15, after new year it's 1/71". When droprate is estimated to be roughly 3-5% you won't get any interesting fact comings from 80-100 runs. Not even 200

klangeddin

Can't complain about the conspiracy if they don't release the odds, nor the code for their RNG.
We're left in the dark and there's only their word for it: "It's random, deal with it".
If they really wanted to to stop people doubting them there's two things they could do:

1) Release the drop rates. So we could effectively test it with aggregate data ourselves. (hundreds of runs from hundreds of players)
-OR-
2) Change the system from an RNG drop to a token buy system (example 1 UES = 1000 seals of the brave or something)

Now, why don't they do that? And when you try answering this question, you'll understand why this type of threads pop up every now and then.

agilesto

klangeddin said:

Can't complain about the conspiracy if they don't release the odds, nor the code for their RNG.
We're left in the dark and there's only their word for it: "It's random, deal with it".
If they really wanted to to stop people doubting them there's two things they could do:

1) Release the drop rates. So we could effectively test it with aggregate data ourselves. (hundreds of runs from hundreds of players)
-OR-
2) Change the system from an RNG drop to a token buy system (example 1 UES = 1000 seals of the brave or something)

Now, why don't they do that? And when you try answering this question, you'll understand why this type of threads pop up every now and then.

Threads like this one pop because people come talking about their personal experience of the RNG. Just look at the number of threads about P. Wards and such. Low droprate affect everyone at the same level, however some people will get lucky and other won't.
Droprates, while they are not realeased, can be estimated with real tests (not talking about that joke thread), using several thousands as a sample. They are plenty of youtube videos, guys openings 10k lockboxes to get an estimation of the droprate of things. These can be taken seriously for an estimation.

This thread, like almost every other talking about RNG, weither it's about dungeon drops, lockbox drops, or Wards success, can be taken seriously because it's based entierely on people's feeling, not on real data.

And no, I don't consider 200, even 600 runs a real data. Show me your results over 10k runs before AND after new year on a spredsheets and I'll surely change my mind.

Edit: I'll add that for every thread about how P. Wards RNG is flawed, etc, it is shown that over a large enough sample of tries, it tends to be the indicated % of success. So, conspiracy?

wylonus

still, RNG must die, LET end this RNG, because this blows!
mean reason why, it makes players burnout

edit to add, add new seal as optional way to get UES, if you get UES as loot, then good for you, with new seals as other option to buy what you need would make less frustrations.

now i am seeing more pitchforks and torches get more angrier.

pterias

People can argue about the validity of the RNG in this game, and I certainly err on the side of it being borked, but an underlying argument that gets overlooked is that there is a massive PERCEPTION of janky RNG that causes a large amount of dissatisfactions among a LOT of people. This is independent of the actual state of the RNG, and is a problem that a company interested in player retention NEEDS to take seriously. Publishing drop rates may help perception some, but refining %s are right there on the screen but is still a major point of contention and skepticism.

I think the only real way to address this problem is to introduce some kind of streak-breaker / chance-accumulator / pity-timer / pity-currency / results-list element that prevents these massive runs of bad luck, even if it results in an overall average increase in success rates.

Also, when it comes to drops, it's not always about getting exactly what you want that keeps you trying, it's feeling like you eventually WILL get SOMETHING. That can be achieved by occasionally (and reliably) getting a top tier drop, even if it's the wrong thing or a duplicate. In my case, I've been playing forever and have NEVER seen a legendary drop, ever. The result is that I'd rather poke my eyes out than ever actively pursue a legendary drop in this game. I'm sure I'm far from alone in feeling that way, and I'm sure that's not good for the game. Any of the approaches above would completely reverse that if I knew it really was just a matter of time until I got SOMETHING.

therealprotex

wylonus said:

still, RNG must die, LET end this RNG, because this blows!
mean reason why, it makes players burnout

edit to add, add new seal as optional way to get UES, if you get UES as loot, then good for you, with new seals as other option to buy what you need would make less frustrations.

now i am seeing more pitchforks and torches get more angrier.

I am not against getting rid of the massive use of RNG in this game, not at all. I was just trying to make clear with some numbers and examples that RNG is (most likely) not broken but working as intended. I am 100% pro a fair system that replaces the pure RNG.

kreatyve

Closed at OP's request.