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UES do we got ninja huge drop nerf after new year, before mod13 ''slightly increased'' ?

blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
Before new year 1/15 tong(both chests) UES drop
After 1/71 tong(both chests) UES drop

I have many friends with range 50-100 runs in row without get one.

Is it mass effect or my ''bad'' luck?
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Comments

  • macjaemacjae Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 2,354 Arc User
    Your luck. 86 games isn't a large enough sample to properly determine drop rates either way.
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    macjae said:

    Your luck. 86 games isn't a large enough sample to properly determine drop rates either way.

    1/15 (from ~200 runs)
    1/71 (from 71 runs i got UES first run)

    will you share you experience before/after new year ?
  • gromovnipljesak#8234 gromovnipljesak Member Posts: 444 Arc User
    Went on a streak of not getting a single stone for 106-107 runs. Then got a few after grinding. It's RNG, but that's what makes it so bad, should instead go to pseudo random distribution. Less pissed off people.
  • wylonuswylonus Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,658 Arc User
    edited February 12
    DEVS! this is suppose to be Fun and it is only a game! making harder to get is Wrong! and lowblow. you (devs) are making players get burnouts! setting a goal to get one is unrealisic if more than 10-12 runs.

    you see, trying to get 3 UES for rank 14 would seem take more than 500 runs, not very nice.
  • armadeonxarmadeonx Member Posts: 3,775 Arc User
    The theory is that they always nerf drop rates on the best items from new dungeons a few weeks in. If so, this would be in keeping with their standard practice.


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  • etelgrinetelgrin Member Posts: 1,421 Arc User
    it can be not large enough sample to judge and I don't have any bigger to share but I'd like to agree on this, because this is also my and my guildies "feel" that after winter event the drop rates for UES were reduced significantly compared to when TONG was first released.

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  • callumf#9018 callumf Member Posts: 386 Arc User
    This thread is brilliant. So now UES rate is even lower than before? Like how many threads were there here about the low drop rate BEFORE and if its now even lower... wow what price are they now on AH? I sold one back in November for 700k - AH is the best judge on rareness of an item surely?
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 13
    etelgrin said:

    it can be not large enough sample to judge and I don't have any bigger to share but I'd like to agree on this, because this is also my and my guildies "feel" that after winter event the drop rates for UES were reduced significantly compared to when TONG was first released.

    idk what it is but i have 2x better ratio in drops in MSP for key arti and FARTouched residuum , i grind first 2x Enchants event and i got 3 drops from ~60 runs for next one if i try probably i will not get even one coz 24h day limit :P
  • stevedudemanstevedudeman Member Posts: 126 Arc User
    If you're running TONG to get UES to make AD, you're probably better off running Dread Ring dungeons. XD
  • oldbaldyoneoldbaldyone Member Posts: 1,783 Arc User
    Take a hard look at the benefits you get from going to R14 from R13....it is not worth it for the drop rate.
    5994311IRAQP.png
  • klangeddinklangeddin Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 803 Arc User
    They could just make UES cost 1000 seals of the brave....
  • greywyndgreywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,742 Arc User
    Have more proof than just a feeling?
    With your shield or on it.
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 13

    armadeonx said:

    The theory is that they always nerf drop rates on the best items from new dungeons a few weeks in. If so, this would be in keeping with their standard practice.

    That has never been the case and is still not something we do. And no, the drop rate of UES was not reduced at all.
    thanks for respond i hope this is bad luck and to get 3 drops in row in 2x event now for all frustration experience i had and same with all my friends with close runs in a row without any drop :)

    ps: your forum name is what i worries most when hear it
  • reddevilbsreddevilbs Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 74 Arc User

    armadeonx said:

    The theory is that they always nerf drop rates on the best items from new dungeons a few weeks in. If so, this would be in keeping with their standard practice.

    That has never been the case and is still not something we do. And no, the drop rate of UES was not reduced at all.
    Somehow I can't take this. You know before, I mean last year, we are racing each other who will get UES first. Now we are racing who will do more Tomb of the Nine Gods runs, without getting one. Seriously! Like I said, don't serve us cold meal, we will not take it. Just a simple calculation, me and some of my friends running this dungeon together, we have total sum of more that 600 runs after 1st JAN, only 1 UES, ONE dropped. Before that we all were able to upgrade 1 enchant 13->14 per week (25-30 runs). That's my 2 cents, but you don't deserve more ...
  • greywyndgreywynd Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,742 Arc User
    RNG doing what it does best, is all.
    With your shield or on it.
  • ecrana#2080 ecrana Member Posts: 629 Arc User

    armadeonx said:

    The theory is that they always nerf drop rates on the best items from new dungeons a few weeks in. If so, this would be in keeping with their standard practice.

    That has never been the case and is still not something we do. And no, the drop rate of UES was not reduced at all.
    On the other hand, the drop rates have never been improved either. ;)
  • dafrca#4810 dafrca Member Posts: 307 Arc User
    edited February 13

    Somehow I can't take this....

    So there are only three answers for the situation you outline that I can think of.

    1) The Devs lie. I do not believe this one at all.

    2) Folks are thinking of RNG as equal distribution and it isn't. Thus the fact some folks have never received 12-13 UES a week and others have at times enjoyed nice drop rates for a period.

    3) Something was done that has had an unintended negative impact on the drop rate.

    For me, I believe 2 or 3 are much more likely situations.

  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 13

    Somehow I can't take this....

    So there are only three answers for the situation you outline that I can think of.

    1) The Devs lie. I do not believe this one at all.

    2) Folks are thinking of RNG as equal distribution and it isn't. Thus the fact some folks have never received 12-13 UES a week and others have at times enjoyed nice drop rates for a period.

    3) Something was done that has had an unintended negative impact on the drop rate.

    For me, I believe 2 or 3 are much more likely situations.

    1. people lie, devs are people , devs can lie :)
    2. RNG is not separate university Math, Statistic ... etc. lows work with it and they show something is changed , average is average more result will be close to middle not both ends
    3. this is possible

    that's why i ask ppl for what experience they have , now i got only something is changed lower drops reply and another side is RNG is RNG like mantra
  • dafrca#4810 dafrca Member Posts: 307 Arc User
    edited February 13
    blajev said:

    1. people lie, devs are people , devs can lie :)

    Come on now, either you are saying they are liars or not. No smile changes the situation. A Dev has said clearly with no vagary at all that they have not lowered the drop rate. Either man up and call them liars or accept that this is not the situation and let it go.

    blajev said:

    2. RNG is not separate university Math, Statistic ... etc. lows work with it and they show something is changed , average is average more result will be close to middle not both ends

    Random Number Generation is not the same as equal distribution like you are saying. Low periods do not prove something has changed. Neither would high drop periods. You can have low periods and high periods and maybe never see your mythical "average" rate.

    Someone is getting the UESs as they are for sale on the AH. Who is getting the drops, we do not know and we do not have access to the logs to see if the drop rate is being hit or not. To insist that because you are not getting them at the rate you want means things have changed is an error in logic.
  • theraxin#5169 theraxin Member Posts: 99 Arc User
    edited February 13



    armadeonx said:

    The theory is that they always nerf drop rates on the best items from new dungeons a few weeks in. If so, this would be in keeping with their standard practice.

    That has never been the case and is still not something we do. And no, the drop rate of UES was not reduced at all.
    Somehow I can't take this. You know before, I mean last year, we are racing each other who will get UES first. Now we are racing who will do more Tomb of the Nine Gods runs, without getting one. Seriously! Like I said, don't serve us cold meal, we will not take it. Just a simple calculation, me and some of my friends running this dungeon together, we have total sum of more that 600 runs after 1st JAN, only 1 UES, ONE dropped. Before that we all were able to upgrade 1 enchant 13->14 per week (25-30 runs). That's my 2 cents, but you don't deserve more ...
    Actually, they tend to increase rates (very rarely tho) if the content is getting out of shape. Like IG, where EVERYONE wanted the +4-s chance to go significantly higher, but we did not got it until... don't remember, I almost stopped doing IG when they announced the Chultan tiger and made me not care anymore.

    The problem is that "fair" RNG does not feel fair at all. Like, if you upgrade something with 50% chance of failing, you expect that the 2. attempt will be okay. Or the 4. Or the 8. But there's 0,39% that all 8 fails. That is very little for one person, but it's likely the same base of players who just got upset at least once if everyone tried the bet. Because failing 8 times with a 50% chance is a disaster if there's a high cost associated with that.

    It's even worse if we not working with chances that's above 1% Imagine that while technically you had some chance to get a legendary ring. So you give it a (thousand) try and you just does not get it and because it consumes time and resources (that need time or resources to regain) could happen that a better legendary ring appears making this a complete waste of time and want to you to just quit. These are not that of a big assumptions, just unlikely.

    Not a surprise that some game has seen this problem and they implemented hidden mechanics that violates the real randomness to ensure that disastrous scenarios can't happen. Because, while in big numbers, if the 1. time you only have 49.5% instead of 50, but that disastrous 0.5% at the low end is ignored by simply granting a success after an amount of consecutive tries, the overall experience will be way better while the end result should not differ that much. The game I'm thinking about does not reduce the 1. try tho, but I don't think that a lot of people would be against if it was a trade-off instead of a bumped up chance to get.
  • gromovnipljesak#8234 gromovnipljesak Member Posts: 444 Arc User
    The point of random isn't that you periodically get a stone after X amount of runs. For example, I did about 106 runs without a single stone. Sounds bad, right? And then, I got one stone. Then another one, and another... and basically after that drought of 106 runs, I got into about 60 runs and got 8 stones.

    That is RANDOM. It's like throwing a dice, but the dice has 50 sides. (100 divided by whatever is the actual chance to drop).
    Let me put it this way. If you flip a coin, it's 50/50 (or rather 51/49) chance that it will land up tails. But it's entirely possible that you will throw it up a thousand, or even a million times and it NEVER lands up tails. It's equally possible for it to land up tails and it to shoot up your own HAMSTER.
    The chance to land on either side doesn't increase with every time you throw the coin - that's gambler's fallacy.

    Just like the chance to get UES doesn't increase if you do 50 runs or 500 runs. It's always gonna be like 2.5-5% or whatever.
  • azazel#6882 azazel Member Posts: 26 Arc User
    I did about 70 runs before I got one then I got 4 in the next 16 runs.The last mmo i played Dcuo, had a bad luck limiter. After so many runs your chances of getting a item would go up until you were almost guaranteed a drop.I really wish something like that was implemented in neverwinter,the game is becoming more a chore than something i do to relax and have fun.
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 14

    The point of random isn't that you periodically get a stone after X amount of runs. For example, I did about 106 runs without a single stone. Sounds bad, right? And then, I got one stone. Then another one, and another... and basically after that drought of 106 runs, I got into about 60 runs and got 8 stones.

    That is RANDOM. It's like throwing a dice, but the dice has 50 sides. (100 divided by whatever is the actual chance to drop).
    Let me put it this way. If you flip a coin, it's 50/50 (or rather 51/49) chance that it will land up tails. But it's entirely possible that you will throw it up a thousand, or even a million times and it NEVER lands up tails. It's equally possible for it to land up tails and it to shoot up your own HAMSTER.
    The chance to land on either side doesn't increase with every time you throw the coin - that's gambler's fallacy.

    Just like the chance to get UES doesn't increase if you do 50 runs or 500 runs. It's always gonna be like 2.5-5% or whatever.

    oh my god this will become one more RNG theorycrafter tread, yes it possible to trow coin same side 100000 times probability for that is close to 0 but is bigger then 0, the probability to get equal sum results for both sides of coin come bigger with every next flip
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 14

    blajev said:

    1. people lie, devs are people , devs can lie :)

    Come on now, either you are saying they are liars or not. No smile changes the situation. A Dev has said clearly with no vagary at all that they have not lowered the drop rate. Either man up and call them liars or accept that this is not the situation and let it go.

    blajev said:

    2. RNG is not separate university Math, Statistic ... etc. lows work with it and they show something is changed , average is average more result will be close to middle not both ends

    Random Number Generation is not the same as equal distribution like you are saying. Low periods do not prove something has changed. Neither would high drop periods. You can have low periods and high periods and maybe never see your mythical "average" rate.

    Someone is getting the UESs as they are for sale on the AH. Who is getting the drops, we do not know and we do not have access to the logs to see if the drop rate is being hit or not. To insist that because you are not getting them at the rate you want means things have changed is an error in logic.
    1 i say that Devs cant lie because they are Devs is false statement (and president of USA say he never have sexual relation with Monica)
    2 you kill Statistic science, average rate is exactly average rate i never say it is equal distribution , RNG will bring equal/normal distribution in long term , if average rate is 1/2 and you go in situation 1/20 or 1/50 this is indication that probably something is wrong , and on end where i say what rate i want i point old rate i have and new rate i have.

    PS: fyi old days we have controlled interventions in AH
    Post edited by blajev on
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    edited February 14
    for all RNG pro guys

    pre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

    after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution
  • etelgrinetelgrin Member Posts: 1,421 Arc User
    blajev said:

    for all RNG pro guys

    pre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

    after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution

    *conspiracy hat on*

    If you pay they crank up the drop rate volume, if you don't they turn it down.

    Pug Panther - PvP SW

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    Scourge Warlock Haven - Build Videos - PvP Content - Other Features.

    R.I.P
  • blajevblajev Member Posts: 148 Arc User
    etelgrin said:

    blajev said:

    for all RNG pro guys

    pre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

    after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution

    *conspiracy hat on*

    If you pay they crank up the drop rate volume, if you don't they turn it down.
    if its true we will have ''VIP'' + drop rate :P
  • therealprotextherealprotex Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 225 Arc User
    blajev said:

    for all RNG pro guys who understand how RNG works

    pre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

    after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution

    I corrected the first line for you (and I hope that I made the following maths correctly ;-) )

    If the drop chance is low enough, a few hundred runs are simply not enough samples to derive the rate from. If the drop rate was 50%, you could get a good guess after maybe 100 runs, mybe even 50. But if the chance was 10%, 100 runs tell you nothing really. If the chance is even lower, maybe 1%, you'd need MUCH more sample runs to derive the drop rate reliably. An example:

    If the drop chance was 1% for a single run, the total chance that you do not get a drop after 100 runs is 36.7%. Pretty high, eh?
    For 200 runs it is still 13.4% that you do not get a drop at all. Still not out of the world. And after 300 runs, the chance not to get a drop is 4.9%.

    What if the drop rate for a single run was even lower, maybe 0.5%/0.1%? Here are the numbers:
    Chance to get no drop after 100 runs: 60.6%/90.5%
    Chance to get no drop after 200 runs: 36.7%/81.9%
    Chance to get no drop after 300 runs: 22.2%/74.1%
    Chance to get no drop after 500 runs: 8.2%/60.6%

    Telling from these numbers my guess is that the drop rate for a single drop is somewhere around 1%-3%.
  • etelgrinetelgrin Member Posts: 1,421 Arc User
    blajev said:

    etelgrin said:

    blajev said:

    for all RNG pro guys

    pre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

    after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution

    *conspiracy hat on*

    If you pay they crank up the drop rate volume, if you don't they turn it down.
    if its true we will have ''VIP'' + drop rate :P
    You can buy vip with zen, you can get zen through zax transfer and this is not what I ment by buying. I mean you charge zen, and because you "support" this is your "secret" reward.

    Pug Panther - PvP SW

    Youtube Channel
    Scourge Warlock Haven - Build Videos - PvP Content - Other Features.

    R.I.P
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