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blajev
Member Posts: **148** Arc User

Before new year 1/15 tong(both chests) UES drop

After 1/71 tong(both chests) UES drop

I have many friends with range 50-100 runs in row without get one.

Is it mass effect or my ''bad'' luck?

After 1/71 tong(both chests) UES drop

I have many friends with range 50-100 runs in row without get one.

Is it mass effect or my ''bad'' luck?

0

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## Comments

2,354Arc User148Arc User1/71 (from 71 runs i got UES first run)

will you share you experience before/after new year ?

444Arc User1,658Arc Useryou see, trying to get 3 UES for rank 14 would seem take more than 500 runs, not very nice.

3,775Arc UserXael De Armadeon: DC

Xane De Armadeon: CW

Zen De Armadeon: OP

Zohar De Armadeon: TR

Chrion De Armadeon: SW

Gosti Big Belly: GWF

Barney McRustbucket: GF

Lt. Thackeray: HR

1,421Arc UserPug Panther - PvP SW

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386Arc User148Arc User126Arc User1,783Arc User803Arc User1,742Arc User148Cryptic Developer148Arc Userps: your forum name is what i worries most when hear it

74Arc UserONEdropped. Before that we all were able to upgrade 1 enchant 13->14 per week (25-30 runs). That's my 2 cents, but you don't deserve more ...Unrepentant Gaming Community1,742Arc User629Arc User307Arc User1) The Devs lie. I do not believe this one at all.

2) Folks are thinking of RNG as equal distribution and it isn't. Thus the fact some folks have never received 12-13 UES a week and others have at times enjoyed nice drop rates for a period.

3) Something was done that has had an unintended negative impact on the drop rate.

For me, I believe 2 or 3 are much more likely situations.

148Arc User2. RNG is not separate university Math, Statistic ... etc. lows work with it and they show something is changed , average is average more result will be close to middle not both ends

3. this is possible

that's why i ask ppl for what experience they have , now i got only something is changed lower drops reply and another side is RNG is RNG like mantra

307Arc UserRandom Number Generation is not the same as equal distribution like you are saying. Low periods do not prove something has changed. Neither would high drop periods. You can have low periods and high periods and maybe never see your mythical "average" rate.

Someone is getting the UESs as they are for sale on the AH. Who is getting the drops, we do not know and we do not have access to the logs to see if the drop rate is being hit or not. To insist that because you are not getting them at the rate you want means things have changed is an error in logic.

99Arc UserThe problem is that "fair" RNG does not feel fair at all. Like, if you upgrade something with 50% chance of failing, you expect that the 2. attempt will be okay. Or the 4. Or the 8. But there's 0,39% that all 8 fails. That is very little for one person, but it's likely the same base of players who just got upset at least once if everyone tried the bet. Because failing 8 times with a 50% chance is a disaster if there's a high cost associated with that.

It's even worse if we

notworking with chances that's above 1% Imagine that while technically you hadsomechance to get a legendary ring. So you give it a (thousand) try and you just does not get it and because it consumes time and resources (that need time or resources to regain) could happen that a better legendary ring appears making this a complete waste of time and want to you to just quit. These are not that of a big assumptions, just unlikely.Not a surprise that some game has seen this problem and they implemented hidden mechanics that violates the real randomness to ensure that disastrous scenarios can't happen. Because, while in big numbers, if the 1. time you only have 49.5% instead of 50, but that disastrous 0.5% at the low end is ignored by simply granting a success after an amount of consecutive tries, the overall experience will be way better while the end result should not differ that much. The game I'm thinking about does not reduce the 1. try tho, but I don't think that a lot of people would be against if it was a trade-off instead of a bumped up chance to get.

444Arc UserThat is RANDOM. It's like throwing a dice, but the dice has 50 sides. (100 divided by whatever is the actual chance to drop).

Let me put it this way. If you flip a coin, it's 50/50 (or rather 51/49) chance that it will land up tails. But it's entirely possible that you will throw it up a thousand, or even a million times and it NEVER lands up tails. It's equally possible for it to land up tails and it to shoot up your own HAMSTER.

The chance to land on either side doesn't increase with every time you throw the coin - that's gambler's fallacy.

Just like the chance to get UES doesn't increase if you do 50 runs or 500 runs. It's always gonna be like 2.5-5% or whatever.

26Arc User148Arc User148Arc User2 you kill Statistic science, average rate is exactly average rate i never say it is equal distribution , RNG will bring equal/normal distribution in long term , if average rate is 1/2 and you go in situation 1/20 or 1/50 this is indication that probably something is wrong , and on end where i say what rate i want i point old rate i have and new rate i have.

PS: fyi old days we have controlled interventions in AH

148Arc Userpre new year the distribution of drops with ~30 ppl i play was from 1/5 to 1/35 with average 1/15

after new year same ~30 ppl this time distribution is 1/40 to 1/100 question is it average changed or for some magical way this ppl start to not get normal distribution

1,421Arc UserIf you pay they crank up the drop rate volume, if you don't they turn it down.

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148Arc User225Arc UserIf the drop chance is low enough, a few hundred runs are simply not enough samples to derive the rate from. If the drop rate was 50%, you could get a good guess after maybe 100 runs, mybe even 50. But if the chance was 10%, 100 runs tell you nothing really. If the chance is even lower, maybe 1%, you'd need MUCH more sample runs to derive the drop rate reliably. An example:

If the drop chance was 1% for a single run, the total chance that you do not get a drop after 100 runs is 36.7%. Pretty high, eh?

For 200 runs it is still 13.4% that you do not get a drop at all. Still not out of the world. And after 300 runs, the chance not to get a drop is 4.9%.

What if the drop rate for a single run was even lower, maybe 0.5%/0.1%? Here are the numbers:

Chance to get no drop after 100 runs: 60.6%/90.5%

Chance to get no drop after 200 runs: 36.7%/81.9%

Chance to get no drop after 300 runs: 22.2%/74.1%

Chance to get no drop after 500 runs: 8.2%/60.6%

Telling from these numbers my guess is that the drop rate for a single drop is somewhere around 1%-3%.

1,421Arc UserPug Panther - PvP SW

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