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blajev
Posts: **168**Member Arc User

Before new year 1/15 tong(both chests) UES drop

After 1/71 tong(both chests) UES drop

I have many friends with range 50-100 runs in row without get one.

Is it mass effect or my ''bad'' luck?

After 1/71 tong(both chests) UES drop

I have many friends with range 50-100 runs in row without get one.

Is it mass effect or my ''bad'' luck?

0

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## Comments

2,398Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User656Member Arc User1,710Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc Useryou see, trying to get 3 UES for rank 14 would seem take more than 500 runs, not very nice.

3,807Member Arc UserXael De Armadeon: DC

Xane De Armadeon: CW

Zen De Armadeon: OP

Zohar De Armadeon: TR

Chrion De Armadeon: SW

Gosti Big Belly: GWF

Barney McRustbucket: GF

Lt. Thackeray: HR

1,501Member Arc UserPug Panther - PvP SW

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460Member Arc User126Member Arc User1,788Member Arc User812Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User2,082Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc UserWith your shield or on it.

190Member Cryptic Developer77Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc UserONEdropped. Before that we all were able to upgrade 1 enchant 13->14 per week (25-30 runs). That's my 2 cents, but you don't deserve more ...Unrepentant Gaming Community2,082Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc UserWith your shield or on it.

684Member Arc User419Member Arc User1) The Devs lie. I do not believe this one at all.

2) Folks are thinking of RNG as equal distribution and it isn't. Thus the fact some folks have never received 12-13 UES a week and others have at times enjoyed nice drop rates for a period.

3) Something was done that has had an unintended negative impact on the drop rate.

For me, I believe 2 or 3 are much more likely situations.

419Member Arc UserRandom Number Generation is not the same as equal distribution like you are saying. Low periods do not prove something has changed. Neither would high drop periods. You can have low periods and high periods and maybe never see your mythical "average" rate.

Someone is getting the UESs as they are for sale on the AH. Who is getting the drops, we do not know and we do not have access to the logs to see if the drop rate is being hit or not. To insist that because you are not getting them at the rate you want means things have changed is an error in logic.

125Member Arc UserThe problem is that "fair" RNG does not feel fair at all. Like, if you upgrade something with 50% chance of failing, you expect that the 2. attempt will be okay. Or the 4. Or the 8. But there's 0,39% that all 8 fails. That is very little for one person, but it's likely the same base of players who just got upset at least once if everyone tried the bet. Because failing 8 times with a 50% chance is a disaster if there's a high cost associated with that.

It's even worse if we

notworking with chances that's above 1% Imagine that while technically you hadsomechance to get a legendary ring. So you give it a (thousand) try and you just does not get it and because it consumes time and resources (that need time or resources to regain) could happen that a better legendary ring appears making this a complete waste of time and want to you to just quit. These are not that of a big assumptions, just unlikely.Not a surprise that some game has seen this problem and they implemented hidden mechanics that violates the real randomness to ensure that disastrous scenarios can't happen. Because, while in big numbers, if the 1. time you only have 49.5% instead of 50, but that disastrous 0.5% at the low end is ignored by simply granting a success after an amount of consecutive tries, the overall experience will be way better while the end result should not differ that much. The game I'm thinking about does not reduce the 1. try tho, but I don't think that a lot of people would be against if it was a trade-off instead of a bumped up chance to get.

656Member Arc UserThat is RANDOM. It's like throwing a dice, but the dice has 50 sides. (100 divided by whatever is the actual chance to drop).

Let me put it this way. If you flip a coin, it's 50/50 (or rather 51/49) chance that it will land up tails. But it's entirely possible that you will throw it up a thousand, or even a million times and it NEVER lands up tails. It's equally possible for it to land up tails and it to shoot up your own HAMSTER.

The chance to land on either side doesn't increase with every time you throw the coin - that's gambler's fallacy.

Just like the chance to get UES doesn't increase if you do 50 runs or 500 runs. It's always gonna be like 2.5-5% or whatever.

27Member Arc User1,501Member Arc UserIf you pay they crank up the drop rate volume, if you don't they turn it down.

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257Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc UserIf the drop chance is low enough, a few hundred runs are simply not enough samples to derive the rate from. If the drop rate was 50%, you could get a good guess after maybe 100 runs, mybe even 50. But if the chance was 10%, 100 runs tell you nothing really. If the chance is even lower, maybe 1%, you'd need MUCH more sample runs to derive the drop rate reliably. An example:

If the drop chance was 1% for a single run, the total chance that you do not get a drop after 100 runs is 36.7%. Pretty high, eh?

For 200 runs it is still 13.4% that you do not get a drop at all. Still not out of the world. And after 300 runs, the chance not to get a drop is 4.9%.

What if the drop rate for a single run was even lower, maybe 0.5%/0.1%? Here are the numbers:

Chance to get no drop after 100 runs: 60.6%/90.5%

Chance to get no drop after 200 runs: 36.7%/81.9%

Chance to get no drop after 300 runs: 22.2%/74.1%

Chance to get no drop after 500 runs: 8.2%/60.6%

Telling from these numbers my guess is that the drop rate for a single drop is somewhere around 1%-3%.

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