Fix the success ratio please

agenty0rk

It's pretty obvious that the success rate of professions, even when stated as a 60% chance of success, is very low. I myself have made 5 attempts at a gemmed version of an item and failed all 5 times. How is that a 60% success rate?

If you take a look at the AH well over 60% of the items posted in the same time frames are the none gemmed version. Of course you have to take into account that the gemmed version is purchased more frequently but even when taking that into account the numbers for a 60% success rate are not there.

Possible fixes:

1. Actually make it a 60% chance for success
2. Don't lie and post it as it is. 35% success rate.

I'd prefer option 1 but I'm sure option 2 inflates game play.

firepats12

I have had a lot better luck then you. I have seven toons each with 2 personalized rings. So thats 14 successes, out of only 20 tries. Thats fine for me.

It is a 60% chance, keyword is chance. Just because you make 100 rings does not mean you will get 60 good ones, its only a chance.

iyodah

It's all about praying to RNGesus. He may smite you or he may shine his grace upon you.

vishara022

1. Your sample size is statistically insignificant. I've had no issue with the percentages, I've made a few dozen.
   
2. The quantity of Gemmed items may be lower because many players keep and equip said items.
   

ultimatebladerv1

Personally, I've only made 4 items (trying for gemmed) and I got them all gemmed. Only one try each. I'm not trying to be cocky because when I first saw the 60% ratio, I thought "It'll never happen."

armadeonx

I've made a dozen or so and yes the 60% is about right but I do think there should be a point after several tries where it gives you a success automatically. Something like '3 fails in a row & the next one works' just because it's very expensive for players not loaded with AD - and lets face it, someone who is loaded will just buy the item from the AH and personalise it.

vishara022

armadeonx said:

... because it's very expensive for players not loaded with AD - and lets face it, someone who is loaded will just buy the item from the AH and personalise it.

It's not all about having AD or not having AD. I regularly make gear for my fellow guild members.

agenty0rk

Man I wish I had the luck you guys are having. I'm at 8 rings created and only 1 came out gemmed. You should all thank me lol. I'm taking that 40% for you haha.

farmerreg

theslotharmy#3268 said:

I just refined two negation enchantments with a one percent refinement chance on my first try.

Did you use a Coalescent ward or just Preservation wards??

farmerreg

theslotharmy#3268 said:

farmerreg#0580 said:

theslotharmy#3268 said:

I just refined two negation enchantments with a one percent refinement chance on my first try.

Did you use a Coalescent ward or just Preservation wards??

none

Oh wow...............kudos to you, my good sir!!

telprydain

True randomness does tend to be streaky, rather than alternating.

There's the old teacher trick - get your students to write heads/tails on the board 100 times, and try to get it looking random.
Get a 2nd group to flip a coin 100 times for real, and write that on the board too.
Leave the room.

When you come back, you can tell the 'real' results by picking the one with the most odd winning/losing streaks.

linman

I find the whole RNG professions thing no fun at all. I spend a month getting leatherworking maxed. Then I realize the only way I can make the only two things there worth making is to get all mithril tools. Ok then I find out through the wiki that even with all 3 of the tools mithril I still need a duplicate of one of them. Ok... Then it says I only have a 60% chance. Ok. Then I find out if I want to spend a million AD I can get it to 75% using an artifact tool. You could at least give a bonus for using a maxed Leatherworker. Then I have to grind and rely upon RNG once again to get the dragon egg and the unified elements... Plus the original Elements needed to make the shirt and pants I need. Mmmm But I can make the unified elements if I get alchemy up... 7 days for elemental aggregate and 12 days for unified elements. Bummer so that's a waste of time too. So I buy them and I'm on my 3rd failure in a row. Month of hard work wasted. I've also spent enough to buy them. Just getting the experience, tools, and components to make the items is difficult enough and then to make it random to succeed seems a little over kill to me. I was gonna make them and sell them at cost to my friends and guild mates. To make it worse they've just doubled in price because so few people are making them. I'm not even going to try the the rings. I'll just buy them and then personalize them. 15 unified elements and 150,000 AD just to upgrade Black ice so I can get the elven armor 2 points omg. It's ok. Whatever. It's also the only way to get the Drowcraft Assualt armor. At least it goes up 5. Alchemy to 25 at least gives me some useful power potions. Could at least give a healing potion worth carrying. Guess I'll go try again to get the Dwarven spelunkers book. At least after 50 tries I will have made enough money to buy it.

linman

I left out the best part... In the last month...Checking about 5 times a day... I've gotten the RNG chance to even make them happen only 3 times. 2 shirts 1 pants. LOL

sundance777

It is a little tough to say if the % chances are correct or not because they are based on statistics and as it has been said, the sample size is too low for most of these examples (if not all of them). I know it feels off when I have to pop a 25% chance thing 10 times to get it to go, but I also don't complain when it hits on the first time Having a long streak of one outcome or the other does not make the outcome more or less likely on the next flip or roll. Each roll has X chance of success and the remainder is failure.

missdayum

Let's see I put 6 gemmed clothes in task yesterday, checked today:

- 2x ungemmed
- 4x gemmed

Looks like 60% to me but of course it's not always like that.

black

I understand you have to balance the economy....but if we were hired to do a task, in which you only succeeded 60 percent of the time....you would be fired..

If each of us players are running our own businesses....our overhead (dragon eggs, unified elements) at 60 percent success...is unsatisfactory....


You can do better.

1. Either give 100 percent.

2. Create a ward system.

3. Return the consumed ingredients upon failures.

wdj40

60% is fine, once you have all those tools to make the equipment needed you just need to make more than you need and sell a load. I earned a large amount of AD that way through my game-time. I made and sold 100's of Gemmed Rings, Belts, Necklaces, Trousers, Shirts etc etc.

Every bit of AD I gained I saved to buy green tools that I converted to purple. Once I had one set of 4 tools I started making 1 item at a time, convert AD into more tools until I had enough to make 3 gemmed items at a time. You need to spend a bunch of AD to make AD but once you have all those tools its worth it.

Every now and then you get 3 failures which is really frustrating, but having 3 successes come up at once is fantastic. Anyhoo once I had 3 sets of Leatherworking tools I then worked on getting 3 sets of Jewelcrafting tools then doing the same there.

After making 100's of items I`d say 60% feels about right.